The Winner Premium

Patrick Testa

No 34585, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Political actors often treat election outcomes as binary, regardless of the margin. This paper develops a framework in which the salience of winning versus losing generates differential political investment, converting narrow and potentially arbitrary outcomes into persistent advantages. I study this "winner premium" using counties in presidential elections, where outcomes carry symbolic importance yet impact neither the national results nor local office or policy. Focusing on a period of intense partisan realignment between 1940 and 1968, I show that counties where Democrats narrowly won the presidential vote subsequently experienced pronounced increases in Democratic local officeholding and voter support. Examining local post-election news coverage, I find that such outcomes were treated as binary, with winners celebrated and losers mourned. The effects—largest in urban, Black, and union areas—operate through political investment, including advertising, direct voter outreach, and civil rights organizing. Aggregated across a competitive map, this premium plausibly shaped the trajectory of realignment at a national level. The findings suggest that elections do not merely reveal political support, but also direct the investment that helps produce it.

JEL-codes: D72 J15 J18 N32 N42 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-his, nep-pol and nep-ure
Note: DAE
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