Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

Kathryn Dominguez and Matthew Shapiro

No 18751, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. It constructs a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. It then compares forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

JEL-codes: E32 E37 N10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
Note: EFG IFM ME
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (25)

Published as Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2013. "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 147-52, May.

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Journal Article: Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different? (2013)
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