Expectations and Investment

Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma and Andrei Shleifer

No 21260, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs’ expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such as Tobin’s Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past earnings and other data, pointing to extrapolative structure of expectations and suggesting that expectations may not be rational. This evidence, like earlier findings in finance, points to the usefulness of data on actual expectations for understanding economic behavior.

JEL-codes: E03 E22 E32 G3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Note: CF EFG ME
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (63)

Published as Expectations and Investment , Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, Andrei Shleifer. in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30 , Eichenbaum and Parker. 2016

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Related works:
Journal Article: Expectations and Investment (2016)
Working Paper: Expectations and investment (2016)
Working Paper: Expectations and Investment (2016)
Chapter: Expectations and Investment (2015)
Working Paper: Expectations and Investment (2015)
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