Expectations and investment

Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma and Andrei Shleifer

No 562, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: Using micro data from the Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs' expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such as Tobin's Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past earnings and other data, pointing to the extrapolative structure of expectations and suggesting that expectations may not be rational. This evidence, like earlier findings in finance, points to the usefulness of data on actual expectations for understanding economic behaviour.

Keywords: Expectations; corporate investment; behavioral macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2016-05
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (108)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Expectations and Investment (2016)
Working Paper: Expectations and Investment (2016)
Chapter: Expectations and Investment (2015)
Working Paper: Expectations and Investment (2015)
Working Paper: Expectations and Investment (2015)
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