BIS Working Papers

From Bank for International Settlements
Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Martin Fessler ().

Access Statistics for this working paper series.
Is something missing from the series or not right? See the RePEc data check for the archive and series.

1379: This paper analyses the evolution and drivers of the stock of global imbalances in order to assess associated vulnerabilities and potential adjustment scenarios. These imbalances have recently increased sharply, with a deterioration in the US net international investment position (NIIP) mirrored by NIIP improvements in most other major economies. We decompose these NIIP changes into their proximate drivers for a sample of 28 economies and find that financial factors (including valuation changes and investment income flows) are the primary drivers of global imbalances at both short and long horizons, while trade also plays a significant role (especially at long horizons). Valuation gains on international investment positions have supported economic growth in many countries since 2010, while also increasing their vulnerability to financial market adjustments. To assess the implications and potential risks, we simulate the spillovers through this cobweb of global imbalances from: (i) a sharp dollar depreciation, (ii) a repricing of equity markets, (iii) higher interest rates, and (iv) a halving of trade imbalances. These scenarios highlight the large international spillovers that would be associated with any reduction in global imbalances, the heterogeneous impact of various rebalancing mechanisms on individual countries and the limits of popular proposals for reducing these imbalances. The persistence of global imbalances underscores the importance of building resilience to the large spillovers that can occur through this cobweb of international exposures

Stefan Avdjiev, Kristin Forbes, Tsvetelina Nenova and Marjorie Santos

1378: Maritime chokepoints and the global economy: evidence from the Strait of Hormuz

Enisse Kharroubi

1377: Hidden by complexity? Measuring stablecoin, crypto and decentralised finance ecosystems

Timothy Aerts, Ronald Heijmans, Jan Paulick and Violeta Vuletic

1376: What determines banks' excess demand for reserves?

Per Asberg-Sommar, Mathias Drehmann, Denise Hansson and Vatsala Shreeti

1375: Zombie firms in emerging Asia: domestic and cross border implications

Boris Hofmann, Xiaoxi Liu and Ilhyock Shim

1374: Verifiable official statistics: a blockchain-based approach

Mario Rusev, Rafael Schmidt, Edward Lambe, Christian Schmieder and Glenn Philip Tice

1373: Settlement liquidity in the Colombian large-value payment system: the role of reserve requirements

Freddy Cepeda-Lopez, Fredy Gamboa-Estrada and Javier Miguelez-Márquez

1372: Hard to shift, easy to reshape: central bank reserve demand and frictions

Mathias Drehmann and Xuewen Fu

1371: What drives exchange rate pass throughs? Evidence from a non parametric method

Emanuel Kohlscheen and Aaron Mehrotra

1370: Dollarisation and monetary control: what lessons for the rise of stablecoins?

Boris Hofmann, Aaron Mehrotra and Jan Paulick

1369: The evolving nexus: sovereigns, banks and NBFIs

Stefan Avdjiev, Bryan Hardy and Maximilian Jager

1368: Geopolitical risk and emerging market sovereign risk premia

Fredy Gamboa-Estrada and José Romero

1367: The AI investment race

Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

1366: Assessing the effects of recent provisioning rules on consumer credit allocation in Colombia

Diego Cuesta-Mora, Fredy Gamboa-Estrada and Camilo Sanchez-Quinto

1365: Public debt and monetary policy transmission: evidence from advanced and emerging Europe

Christopher Johns, Aaron Mehrotra and Fabrizio Zampolli

1364: Financial and real effects of fiscal risk

Denis Gorea, Ding Xuan Ng and Fabrizio Zampolli

1363: The macroeconomics of stablecoins

Boris Hofmann, Matthias Kaldorf and Matthias Rottner

1362: Embracing carbon uncertainty in portfolio construction

Dora Xia and Omar Zulaica

1361: Bond yield responses to macro news: the role of macro forecast disagreement and monetary policy uncertainty

Peter Hoerdahl, Burcin Kisacikoglu and Dora Xia

1360: Credit supply in the wake of distressed bank acquisitions

Ryan Banerjee, Francisco González, José E Gutierrez and Jose Maria Serena Garralda

1359: The anatomy of stablecoin transactions

Anneke Kosse, Tara Rice, Fabian Schär, Takeshi Shirakami and Jirapat Siridhasanakul

1358: Asset price bubbles and systemic risk in money market funds

Matteo Aquilina, Peter Cincinelli and Giovanni Urga

1357: The digitalisation of banking and social media: implications for deposit pricing

Giulio Cornelli, Leonardo Gambacorta, Boris Hofmann and Michael Brei

1356: The credibility of bail-in

Alessandro Di Stefano, Yvan Lengwiler and Kumar Rishabh

1355: Making stablecoins stabler(r): can regulation help?

Tirupam Goel, Ulf Lewrick and Isha Agarwal

1354: Monetary policy according to households: perceptions, reactions and channels

Francesco Grigoli, Damiano Sandri, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Olivier Goibion

1353: The strength of the inflation-output link in China

Mikael Juselius and Wenzhe Li

1352: Liquidity regulation and bank funding costs

Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr and Haonan Zhou

1351: Disciplining digital risk: evidence from cyber stress tests

Nordine Abidi, Leonardo Gambacorta, Christoffer Kok, Leonardo Madio, Ixart Miquel-Flores and Alberto Partida

1350: Elasticity of money in production networks, working capital, credit lines and financial conditions

Ryan Banerjee, Hyun Song Shin and Jose Maria Vidal Pastor

1349: Learning monetary policy strategies at the effective lower bound with sudden surprises

Spencer Krane, Leonardo Melosi and Matthias Rottner

1348: Geopolitical risk in the euro area: measurement and transmission

Yevheniia Bondarenko, Nayeon Kang, Vivien Lewis, Matthias Rottner and Yves Schueler

1347: The Trafalgar squeeze of global liquidity

Vincent Bignon, Benoit Mojon and Miguel Ortiz Serrano

1346: How do interest rate levels affect credit loss rates? A rule of thumb approach

Maximilian Fandl, Boris Fišera, Adam Gersl and Christian Schmieder

1345: Shifting forces behind RMB internationalization: evidence from the 2025 Triennial Survey

Juliana Robbert, Vladyslav Sushko and Frank Westermann

1344: Imitation and the diffusion of innovation

Debi Prasad Mohapatra and Vatsala Shreeti

1343: The geography of AI firms

Kumar Rishabh and Vatsala Shreeti

1342: Quantum Bayesian inference: an exploration

Jon Frost, Carlos Madeira, Yash Rastogi and Harald Uhlig

1341: Labour market flows, unemployment and the Phillips curve

Enisse Kharroubi and Marius Koechlin

1340: Stablecoin flows and spillovers to FX markets

Iñaki Aldasoro, Paula Beltrán and Federico Grinberg

1339: Financial stability limits on fiscal space

Fabrizio Zampolli

1338: Global banking and geopolitics through time

Lorenz Emter, Laura Kuitunen, Arnaud Mehl, Peter McQuade, Swapan-Kumar Pradhan and Goetz von Peter

1337: Introducing BISTRO: a foundational model for unconditional and conditional forecasting of macroeconomic time series

Batuhan Koyuncu, Byeungchun Kwon, Marco Lombardi, Fernando Perez-Cruz and Hyun Song Shin

1336: A public-private partnership? Central bank funding and credit supply

Matthieu Chavaz, David Elliott and Win Monroe

1335: Tokenomics and blockchain fragmentation

Hyun Song Shin

1334: Robots, ICT and employment: evidence from advanced and emerging EU countries

Costanza Bosone, Leonardo Gambacorta, Paolo Giudici, Enisse Kharroubi and Ulf Lewrick

1333: Generative AI for surveys on payment apps: AI views on privacy and technology

Koji Takahashi and Joon Suk Park

1332: Dollar funding and housing markets: the role of non-US global banks

Torsten Ehlers, Mathias Hoffmann and Alexander Raabe

1331: Lending to vulnerable households and consumption: evidence from Korea

Jieun Lee and Ilhyock Shim

1330: Passive investors and loan spreads

Konrad Adler, Sebastian Doerr and Sonya Zhu