BIS Working Papers

From Bank for International Settlements
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1250: Predicting financial market stress with machine learning

Iñaki Aldasoro, Peter Hördahl, Andreas Schrimpf and Sonya Zhu

1249: The role of geopolitics in international trade

Han Qiu, Fan Dora Xia and James Yetman

1248: Climate Minsky moments and endogenous financial crises

Matthias Kaldorf and Matthias Rottner

1247: Geopolitics meets monetary policy: decoding their impact on cross-border bank lending

Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Viktors Stebunovs, Elod Takats and Judit Temesvary

1246: Monetary policy along the yield curve: why can central banks affect long-term real rates?

Paul Beaudry, Paolo Cavallino and Tim Willems

1245: Putting AI agents through their paces on general tasks

Fernando Perez-Cruz and Hyun Song Shin

1244: Artificial intelligence and relationship lending

Leonardo Gambacorta, Fabiana Sabatini and Stefano Schiaffi

1243: Mutual funds and climate news

Giulio Cornelli, Leonardo Gambacorta, Tommaso Oliviero and Koji Takahashi

1242: Privacy-enhancing technologies for digital payments: mapping the landscape

Raphael Auer, Rainer Böhme, Jeremy Clark and Didem Demirag

1241: Estimating nonlinear heterogeneous agent models with neural networks

Hanno Kase, Leonardo Melosi and Matthias Rottner

1240: The granular origins of inflation

Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Raphael Auer, Sarah Lein and Andrei Levchenko

1239: The use and disuse of FinTech credit: When buy-now-pay-later meets credit reporting

Yanfei Dong, Jiayin Hu, Yiping Huang, Han Qiu and Yingguang Zhang

1238: Fiscal stimulus plans and households' expectations

Fiorella De Fiore, Marco Lombardi and Albert Pierres Tejada

1237: The macroeconomics of green transitions

Gregor Boehl, Flora Budianto and Elod Takats

1236: Savings-and-credit contracts

Bernardus Van Doornik, Armando Gomes, David Schoenherr and Janis Skrastins

1235: Aggregate debt servicing and the limit on private credit

Mathias Drehmann, Mikael Juselius and Sarah Quincy

1234: Targeted Taylor rules: some evidence and theory

Boris Hofmann, Cristina Manea and Benoit Mojon

1233: Fire sales of safe assets

Gabor Pinter, Emil Siriwardane and Danny Walker

1232: Bond supply, yield drifts and liquidity provision before macroeconomic announcements

Dong Lou, Gabor Pinter, Semih Üslü and Danny Walker

1231: Monetary policy in the news: communication pass-through and inflation expectations

Fiorella De Fiore, Alexis Maurin, Andrej Mijakovic and Damiano Sandri

1230: Whither inflation targeting as a global monetary standard?

Claudio Borio

1229: Through stormy seas: how fragile is liquidity across asset classes and time?

Nihad Aliyev, Matteo Aquilina, Khaladdin Rzayev and Sonya Zhu

1228: Retail fast payment systems as a catalyst for digital finance

Giulio Cornelli, Jon Frost, Jonathan Warren, Clair Yang and Carolina Velásquez

1227: Decentralised dealers? examining liquidity provision in decentralised exchanges

Matteo Aquilina, Sean Foley, Leonardo Gambacorta and William Krekel

1226: How does fiscal policy affect the transmission of monetary policy into cross-border bank lending? Cross-country evidence

Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Elod Takats and Judit Temesvary

1225: Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy

Silvana Tenreyro, Ludovica Ambrosino and Jenny Chan

1224: A theory of economic coercion and fragmentation

Matteo Maggiori, Chris Clayton and Jesse Schreger

1223: Carbon prices and reforestation in tropical forest

Jose A Scheinkman

1222: Artificial intelligence and big holdings data: Opportunities for central banks

Xavier Gabaix, Ralph S J Koijen, Robert Richmond and Motohiro Yogo

1221: Bank geographic diversification and funding stability

Sebastian Doerr

1220: The road to net zero: a fund flow investigation

Louisa Chen and Koji Takahashi

1219: Stablecoins, money market funds and monetary policy

Iñaki Aldasoro, Giulio Cornelli, Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Leonardo Gambacorta and Maurizio Michael Habib

1218: Bank specialisation and corporate innovation

Hans Degryse, Olivier De Jonghe, Leonardo Gambacorta and Cedric Huylebroek

1217: Global inflation, inflation expectations and central banks in emerging markets

Ana Aguilar, Rafael Guerra and Berenice Martinez

1216: Trade credit and exchange rate risk pass through

Bryan Hardy, Felipe Saffie and Ina Simonovska

1215: CB-LMs: language models for central banking

Leonardo Gambacorta, Byeungchun Kwon, Taejin Park, Pietro Patelli and Sonya Zhu

1214: The impact of financial crises on industrial growth: lessons from the last 40 years

Carlos Madeira

1213: Chinese Banks and their EMDE Borrowers: Have Their Relationships Changed in Times of Geoeconomic Fragmentation

Catherine Casanova, Eugenio Cerutti and Swapan-Kumar Pradhan

1212: House price responses to monetary policy surprises: evidence from US listings data

Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov and Marianna Kudlyak

1211: Non-bank lending and the transmission of monetary policy

Dominic Cucic and Denis Gorea

1210: Which exchange rate matters to global investors?

Kristy Jansen, Hyun Song Shin and Goetz von Peter

1209: Latin America's non-linear response to pandemic inflation

Rafael Guerra, Steven Kamin, John Kearns, Christian Upper and Aatman Vakil

1208: Generative AI and labour productivity: a field experiment on coding

Leonardo Gambacorta, Han Qiu, Shuo Shan and Daniel Rees

1207: The rise of generative AI: modelling exposure, substitution and inequality effects on the US labour market

Raphael Auer, David Köpfer and Josef Švéda

1206: Covered interest parity: a forecasting approach to estimate the neutral band

Juan Hernandez

1205: The measure matters: differences in the passthrough of inflation expectations in Colombia

Andres Sanchez-Jabba and Erick Villabon-Hinestroza

1204: Climate policies, labour markets and macroeconomic outcomes in emerging economies

Alan Finkelstein Shapiro and Victoria Nuguer

1203: Strike while the iron is hot: optimal monetary policy with a nonlinear Phillips curve

Peter Karadi, Anton Nakov, Galo Nuño Barrau, Ernesto Pasten and Dominik Thaler

1202: Are low interest rates firing back? Interest rate risk in the banking book and bank lending in a rising interest rate environment

Lara Coulier and Alessio Reghezza

1201: Crypto Exchange Tokens

Rodney Garratt and Maarten RC van Oordt