Artificial intelligence and growth in advanced and emerging economies: short-run impact

Leonardo Gambacorta, Enisse Kharroubi, Aaron Mehrotra and Tommaso Oliviero

No 1321, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the positive effects of generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) on growth rate of value added differ across countries in the short run. Using an empirical strategy inspired by Rajan and Zingales (1998) and a dataset covering 56 economies and 16 industries, we find that the differential growth effects arise from variations in sectoral exposure to cognitive and knowledge-intensive activities, differences in production structures, and countries' AI preparedness. Our results suggest that, on average, gen AI is likely to benefit advanced economies more than emerging market economies, thereby widening global income disparities in the near term.

Keywords: generative artificial intelligence, emerging market economies, economic growth; productivity differentials, technological readiness, sectoral exposure to AI (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 O47 O57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain and nep-ifn
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