Bond yield responses to macro news: the role of macro forecast disagreement and monetary policy uncertainty

Peter Hoerdahl, Burcin Kisacikoglu and Dora Xia

No 1361, BIS Working Papers from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: Bond yields react to macroeconomic surprises, but the magnitude of this responsiveness depends on macroeconomic forecast disagreement and monetary policy uncertainty. Using intraday responses of US Treasury futures to surprises in macroeconomic data releases, we find that greater forecast disagreement about an economic indicator prior to its release dampens the yield curve response, while higher monetary policy uncertainty amplifies it. An exception is inflation surprises: prior to the post-COVID inflation surge, bond yield reactions to inflation surprises were not amplified by monetary policy uncertainty. We use a model with Bayesian learning to rationalize these findings. Specifically, large forecast disagreement indicates a weak link between the macroeconomic variable and future monetary policy, reducing the information value of macro news to forecast monetary policy. In contrast, during periods of high monetary policy uncertainty, macro news becomes more informative. Before the post-COVID inflation surge, investors may have perceived that the Federal Reserve placed little emphasis on its price stability mandate, which could have muted the yield curve response to inflation news even when policy rate uncertainty was high. The proposed model generates distinct, empirically testable effects of disagreement and monetary policy uncertainty on yield responses which, when extended to allow time-varying signal precision, accounts for the post-COVID shift in inflation sensitivity within a single unified framework.

Keywords: macroeconomic news; forecast dispersion; policy uncertainty; bond yields; Bayesian learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E44 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mon
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