Globalization and Its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior

Christian Dippel, Robert Gold and Stephan Heblich

No 21812, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We identify the causal effect of trade-integration with China and Eastern Europe on voting in Germany from 1987 to 2009. Looking at the entire political spectrum, we find that only extreme-right parties respond significantly to trade integration. Their vote share increases with import competition and decreases with export access opportunities. We unpack mechanisms using reduced form evidence and a causal mediation analysis. Two-thirds of the total effect of trade integration on voting appears to be driven by observable labor market adjustments, primarily changes in manufacturing employment. These results are mirrored in an individual-level analysis in the German Socioeconomic Panel.

JEL-codes: D72 F16 J2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
Note: ITI LS POL
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (121)

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