The Cook County Tax on Sweetened Beverages: The Impact on Purchases of its Announcement, Implementation, and Repeal

Felipe Lozano Rojas, John Cawley and David Frisvold

No 34412, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Taxes on sweetened beverages have been widely adopted in response to increases in diet-related chronic disease. An episode of particular interest occurred in Cook County, Illinois, where a beverage tax was announced, implemented, and then repealed. This paper is the first to estimate the effects of this tax using household-level data on purchases. We estimate difference-in-differences models that compare the change in beverage purchases over time in Cook County to that in comparison areas. The results indicate that consumer purchases did not detectably respond to the announcement of the tax. Implementation of the tax reduced purchases by 22.5% for all taxed beverages, 16.5% for high-calorie taxed beverages and a 33% for low-calorie (e.g. diet) taxed beverages. This implies a price elasticity of demand of -0.66 for all taxed beverages, -0.48 for high-calorie taxed beverages and -0.97 for low-calorie taxed beverages. The impact of the tax did not vary by household income, and there is no detectable impact of the tax on purchases of possible substitutes (bottled water, fruit juice, milk). After repeal of the tax, purchases of taxed beverages returned to their baseline quantities; there was no evidence of habit formation.

JEL-codes: H2 I12 I18 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10
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