Details about John Fernald

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://www.johnfernald.net
Phone:	(415)974-2135
Postal address:	Research Department 11th Floor Mail Stop 1130 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 101 Market St San Francisco, CA 94105
Workplace:	Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC) Economic and Political Sciences Area, INSEAD, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by John Fernald.

Last updated 2020-05-04. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pfe43

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Jump to Journal Articles Chapters

Working Papers

2022

1. Dale W. Jorgenson: An Intellectual Biography
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
2. The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
3. The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2021

4. The Impact of COVID on Potential Output
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

2020

5. Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (4)
6. World Productivity: 1996 - 2014
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
   Also in 2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019)

2019

7. Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
8. Returns to Scale in U.S. Production, Redux
   Carleton Economic Papers, Carleton University, Department of Economics View citations (1)

2017

9. The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (111)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2017) View citations (48)
   See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2017)
10. The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009
    2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (7)

2016

11. Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (127)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) View citations (84)
    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2016)
12. Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (4)
13. The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) View citations (3)
    See also Chapter (2017)
14. The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity
    Working papers, Banque de France View citations (191)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) View citations (132)
    Post-Print, HAL (2016) View citations (174)
    See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (2016)
15. Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?
    2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (53)
    Also in Current Policy Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2015) View citations (11)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) View citations (48)
    See also Journal Article in Annual Review of Economics (2016)

2015

16. Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (13)
17. World TFP
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics

2014

18. Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in National Institute Economic Review (2014)
19. Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (86)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2014) View citations (76)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2014)
20. Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (209)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2014) View citations (112)
    2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2014) View citations (202)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) View citations (6)
    See also Chapter (2014)
    Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2015)
21. The Future of U.S. Economic Growth
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (35)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2014)

2013

22. Okun’s Macroscope: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Productivity and the Comovement between Output and Unemployment
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
23. Shocks and Adjustments
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)

2012

24. A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (115)
25. Technology Shocks in a Two-Sector DSGE Model
    2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (10)

2011

26. What Happens when Technology Improves?
    2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics

2010

27. Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2003) View citations (5)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) View citations (3)
    2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2006) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2011)

2009

28. What do we know and not know about potential output?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2009)

2008

29. A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2004) View citations (24)
    See also Chapter (2009)

2006

30. Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
31. Information and communications technology as a general-purpose technology: evidence from U.S industry data
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2008)
32. Measuring the miracle: market imperfections and Asia's growth experience
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
33. Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) View citations (5)

2005

34. New Evidence on Durable Goods Biased Technological Change
    2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in 2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2004)

2004

35. Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (132)
    Also in Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research (2002) View citations (62)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations (70)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2004) View citations (59)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2006)
36. Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks
    2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (27)

2003

37. China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago View citations (39)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2003) View citations (46)
38. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (172)
39. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?
    Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research View citations (68)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2003) View citations (84)
    See also Chapter (2004)

2001

40. Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (92)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2001) View citations (34)
    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (2001)

2000

41. Puzzles in the Chinese stock market
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2002)
42. Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (54)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1999) View citations (51)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2000) View citations (34)
    See also Chapter (2001)

1999

43. Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (25)

1998

44. Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (31)

1997

45. Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (35)
    See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (2002)
46. Roads to prosperity? assessing the link between public capital and productivity
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1999)

1996

47. Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (123)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1997)

1995

48. Aggregate Productivity and the Productivity of Aggregates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (39)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1995) View citations (35)
49. Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (204)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1994) View citations (8)
    Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1993) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1995)

1994

50. Constant returns and small markups in U.S. manufacturing
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (35)
    Also in Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1993) View citations (25)

Journal Articles

2021

1. Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (04), 01-05 View citations (1)
2. Labor Productivity in a Pandemic
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (22), 01-05 View citations (1)

2019

3. How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019
4. Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (2)

2018

5. Cyclical Downturn or Slowing Trend? A Review Article on Productivity Puzzles across Europe
   International Productivity Monitor, 2018, 34, 110-117
6. Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal?
   International Productivity Monitor, 2018, 35, 138-148 View citations (2)
7. The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018

2017

8. Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017
9. Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 View citations (2)
10. Is there an easy cure for low growth?
    Business Economics, 2017, 52, (3), 175-180
11. Paradox resolved? A review of the Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert J. Gordon
    Business Economics, 2017, 52, (4), 265-267
12. The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2017, 48, (1 (Spring)), 1-81 View citations (125)
    See also Working Paper (2017)

2016

13. Comment
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2016, 30, (1), 90 - 100
14. Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016, 47, (1 (Spring)), 109-182 View citations (225)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
15. The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
    European Economic Review, 2016, 88, (C), 3-20 View citations (184)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
16. What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (5)
17. Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?
    Annual Review of Economics, 2016, 8, (1), 465-496 View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper (2016)

2015

18. Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2015, 29, (1), 1 - 51 View citations (150)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
    Chapter (2014)
19. The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (5)

2014

20. Has China’s economy become more “standard”?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (1)
21. Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (19)
22. Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
    National Institute Economic Review, 2014, 228, (1), R58-R64 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
23. Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, 49, (PA), 83-103 View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
24. The Future of US Economic Growth
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (5), 44-49 View citations (54)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2013

25. Labor markets in the global financial crisis
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013 View citations (2)
26. On the reliability of Chinese output figures
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (mar25) View citations (10)

2011

27. Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (2), 29-74 View citations (49)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
28. What is the value of bank output?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (may16) View citations (1)

2009

29. Growth accounting, potential output, and the current recession
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (aug17) View citations (5)
30. What do we know (and not know) about potential output?
    Review, 2009, 91, (Jul), 187-214 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (2009)

2008

31. Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data
    Economic Review, 2008, 1-15 View citations (9)
    Also in German Economic Review, 2007, 8, (2), 146-173 (2007) View citations (55)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

32. Financial innovations and the real economy: conference summary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (mar2)
33. Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (8), 2467-2485 View citations (142)
34. Will fast productivity growth persist?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (apr6) View citations (4)

2006

35. Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
    American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (5), 1418-1448 View citations (483)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
36. Is a recession imminent?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006, (nov24)

2005

37. Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (dec9) View citations (1)
38. Why hasn't the jump in oil prices led to a recession?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (nov18) View citations (2)

2004

39. Comrades or competitors? on trade relationships between China and emerging Asia
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2004, (Mar) View citations (9)
40. The acceleration in U.S. total productivity after 1995: the role of information technology
    Economic Perspectives, 2004, 28, (Q I), 52-67 View citations (9)

2003

41. Information technology and the U.S. productivity acceleration
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2003, (Sep) View citations (3)

2002

42. Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology
    European Economic Review, 2002, 46, (6), 963-991 View citations (185)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
43. Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84, (3), 416-432 View citations (91)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

2001

44. Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?
    Economic Perspectives, 2001, 25, (Q IV), 38-52 View citations (5)
45. Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2001, 55, (1), 117-165 View citations (90)
    See also Working Paper (2001)
46. The fall and rise of the global economy
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2001, (Apr) View citations (1)

1999

47. Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity
    American Economic Review, 1999, 89, (3), 619-638 View citations (450)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
48. Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1999, 18, (4), 515-535 View citations (62)

1997

49. Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications
    Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105, (2), 249-83 View citations (885)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1995

50. Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, (1), 165-188 View citations (234)
    See also Working Paper (1995)

Chapters

2022

1. Comment on "TFP Accounting with Secondary Production"
   A chapter in Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth, 2022

2017

2. The Outlook for US Labor-Quality Growth
   A chapter in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, 2017, pp 61-110 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper (2016)

2015

3. Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy"
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, 2015, pp 90-100

2014

4. Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, 2014, pp 1-51 View citations (208)
   See also Working Paper (2014)
   Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2015)

2009

5. A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
   A chapter in Price Index Concepts and Measurement, 2009, pp 273-320 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2008)

2004

6. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom?
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, 2004, pp 9-82 View citations (71)
   See also Working Paper (2003)

2001

7. Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?
   A chapter in New Developments in Productivity Analysis, 2001, pp 225-302 View citations (157)
   See also Working Paper (2000)