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Details about John Fernald

E-mail:
Homepage:http://www.johnfernald.net
Phone:(415)974-2135
Postal address:Research Department 11th Floor Mail Stop 1130 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 101 Market St San Francisco, CA 94105
Workplace:Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC)
Economic and Political Sciences Area, INSEAD, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by John Fernald.

Last updated 2020-05-04. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pfe43


Jump to Journal Articles Chapters

Working Papers

2022

  1. Dale W. Jorgenson: An Intellectual Biography
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
  2. The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
  3. The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2021

  1. The Impact of COVID on Potential Output
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads

2020

  1. Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (4)
  2. World Productivity: 1996 - 2014
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in 2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) Downloads

2019

  1. Is China Fudging Its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (2)
  2. Returns to Scale in U.S. Production, Redux
    Carleton Economic Papers, Carleton University, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (1)

2017

  1. The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (111)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2017) Downloads View citations (48)

    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2017)
  2. The Slow Recovery in Output after 2009
    2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads View citations (7)

2016

  1. Does the United States have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (127)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) Downloads View citations (84)

    See also Journal Article in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2016)
  2. Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (4)
  3. The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Chapter (2017)
  4. The Pre-Great Recession Slowdown in Productivity
    Working papers, Banque de France Downloads View citations (191)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) Downloads View citations (132)
    Post-Print, HAL (2016) View citations (174)

    See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (2016)
  5. Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?
    2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads View citations (53)
    Also in Current Policy Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2015) Downloads View citations (11)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) Downloads View citations (48)

    See also Journal Article in Annual Review of Economics (2016)

2015

  1. Is China fudging its figures? Evidence from trading partner data
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (13)
  2. World TFP
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads

2014

  1. Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in National Institute Economic Review (2014)
  2. Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (86)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2014) Downloads View citations (76)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2014)
  3. Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (209)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2014) Downloads View citations (112)
    2014 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2014) Downloads View citations (202)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2012) Downloads View citations (6)

    See also Chapter (2014)
    Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2015)
  4. The Future of U.S. Economic Growth
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) Downloads View citations (35)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2014)

2013

  1. Okun’s Macroscope: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Productivity and the Comovement between Output and Unemployment
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Shocks and Adjustments
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (6)

2012

  1. A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (115)
  2. Technology Shocks in a Two-Sector DSGE Model
    2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads View citations (10)

2011

  1. What Happens when Technology Improves?
    2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics Downloads

2010

  1. Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2003) Downloads View citations (5)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2010) Downloads View citations (3)
    2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2006) View citations (2)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2011)

2009

  1. What do we know and not know about potential output?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in Review (2009)

2008

  1. A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (11)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2004) Downloads View citations (24)

    See also Chapter (2009)

2006

  1. Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (16)
  2. Information and communications technology as a general-purpose technology: evidence from U.S industry data
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2008)
  3. Measuring the miracle: market imperfections and Asia's growth experience
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (1)
  4. Trend Breaks, Long-Run Restrictions and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Improvements
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (9)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2005) Downloads View citations (5)

2005

  1. New Evidence on Durable Goods Biased Technological Change
    2005 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in 2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2004)

2004

  1. Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (132)
    Also in Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research (2002) Downloads View citations (62)
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) Downloads View citations (70)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2004) Downloads View citations (59)

    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2006)
  2. Trend Breaks, Long Run Restrictions, and the Contractionary Effects of Technology Shocks
    2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (27)

2003

  1. China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Downloads View citations (39)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2003) Downloads View citations (46)
  2. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information Technology Explain why Productivity Accelerated in the US but not the UK?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (172)
  3. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth: Or, Does Information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?
    Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research Downloads View citations (68)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2003) Downloads View citations (84)

    See also Chapter (2004)

2001

  1. Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (92)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2001) Downloads View citations (34)

    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (2001)

2000

  1. Puzzles in the Chinese stock market
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Downloads
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1998) Downloads View citations (15)

    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2002)
  2. Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (54)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1999) Downloads View citations (51)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (2000) Downloads View citations (34)

    See also Chapter (2001)

1999

  1. Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (25)

1998

  1. Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (31)

1997

  1. Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (35)
    See also Journal Article in European Economic Review (2002)
  2. Roads to prosperity? assessing the link between public capital and productivity
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (1999)

1996

  1. Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (123)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (1997)

1995

  1. Aggregate Productivity and the Productivity of Aggregates
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (39)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1995) Downloads View citations (35)
  2. Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error?
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (204)
    Also in International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1994) Downloads View citations (8)
    Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1993) View citations (4)

    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1995)

1994

  1. Constant returns and small markups in U.S. manufacturing
    International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (35)
    Also in Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1993) View citations (25)

Journal Articles

2021

  1. Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (04), 01-05 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Labor Productivity in a Pandemic
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2021, 2021, (22), 01-05 Downloads View citations (1)

2019

  1. How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 Downloads
  2. Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 Downloads View citations (2)

2018

  1. Cyclical Downturn or Slowing Trend? A Review Article on Productivity Puzzles across Europe
    International Productivity Monitor, 2018, 34, 110-117 Downloads
  2. Is Slow Productivity and Output Growth in Advanced Economies the New Normal?
    International Productivity Monitor, 2018, 35, 138-148 Downloads View citations (2)
  3. The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2018 Downloads

2017

  1. Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 Downloads
  2. Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017 Downloads View citations (2)
  3. Is there an easy cure for low growth?
    Business Economics, 2017, 52, (3), 175-180 Downloads
  4. Paradox resolved? A review of the Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert J. Gordon
    Business Economics, 2017, 52, (4), 265-267 Downloads
  5. The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2017, 48, (1 (Spring)), 1-81 Downloads View citations (125)
    See also Working Paper (2017)

2016

  1. Comment
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2016, 30, (1), 90 - 100 Downloads
  2. Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016, 47, (1 (Spring)), 109-182 Downloads View citations (225)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
  3. The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity
    European Economic Review, 2016, 88, (C), 3-20 Downloads View citations (184)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
  4. What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 Downloads View citations (5)
  5. Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?
    Annual Review of Economics, 2016, 8, (1), 465-496 Downloads View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper (2016)

2015

  1. Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2015, 29, (1), 1 - 51 Downloads View citations (150)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
    Chapter (2014)
  2. The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 Downloads View citations (5)

2014

  1. Has China’s economy become more “standard”?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 Downloads View citations (19)
  3. Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
    National Institute Economic Review, 2014, 228, (1), R58-R64 Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
  4. Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014, 49, (PA), 83-103 Downloads View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
  5. The Future of US Economic Growth
    American Economic Review, 2014, 104, (5), 44-49 Downloads View citations (54)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2013

  1. Labor markets in the global financial crisis
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013 Downloads View citations (2)
  2. On the reliability of Chinese output figures
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (mar25) Downloads View citations (10)

2011

  1. Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (2), 29-74 Downloads View citations (49)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
  2. What is the value of bank output?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (may16) Downloads View citations (1)

2009

  1. Growth accounting, potential output, and the current recession
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2009, (aug17) Downloads View citations (5)
  2. What do we know (and not know) about potential output?
    Review, 2009, 91, (Jul), 187-214 Downloads View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper (2009)

2008

  1. Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data
    Economic Review, 2008, 1-15 Downloads View citations (9)
    Also in German Economic Review, 2007, 8, (2), 146-173 (2007) Downloads View citations (55)

    See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

  1. Financial innovations and the real economy: conference summary
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (mar2) Downloads
  2. Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and contractionary technology improvements
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54, (8), 2467-2485 Downloads View citations (142)
  3. Will fast productivity growth persist?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (apr6) Downloads View citations (4)

2006

  1. Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
    American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (5), 1418-1448 Downloads View citations (483)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
  2. Is a recession imminent?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2006, (nov24) Downloads

2005

  1. Shifting data: a challenge for monetary policymakers
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (dec9) Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Why hasn't the jump in oil prices led to a recession?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (nov18) Downloads View citations (2)

2004

  1. Comrades or competitors? on trade relationships between China and emerging Asia
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2004, (Mar) Downloads View citations (9)
  2. The acceleration in U.S. total productivity after 1995: the role of information technology
    Economic Perspectives, 2004, 28, (Q I), 52-67 Downloads View citations (9)

2003

  1. Information technology and the U.S. productivity acceleration
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2003, (Sep) Downloads View citations (3)

2002

  1. Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology
    European Economic Review, 2002, 46, (6), 963-991 Downloads View citations (185)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
  2. Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84, (3), 416-432 Downloads View citations (91)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

2001

  1. Countering contagion: Does China's experience offer a blueprint?
    Economic Perspectives, 2001, 25, (Q IV), 38-52 Downloads View citations (5)
  2. Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 2001, 55, (1), 117-165 Downloads View citations (90)
    See also Working Paper (2001)
  3. The fall and rise of the global economy
    Chicago Fed Letter, 2001, (Apr) Downloads View citations (1)

1999

  1. Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity
    American Economic Review, 1999, 89, (3), 619-638 Downloads View citations (450)
    See also Working Paper (1997)
  2. Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 1999, 18, (4), 515-535 Downloads View citations (62)

1997

  1. Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications
    Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105, (2), 249-83 Downloads View citations (885)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1995

  1. Are apparent productive spillovers a figment of specification error?
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, (1), 165-188 Downloads View citations (234)
    See also Working Paper (1995)

Chapters

2022

  1. Comment on "TFP Accounting with Secondary Production"
    A chapter in Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth, 2022

2017

  1. The Outlook for US Labor-Quality Growth
    A chapter in Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, 2017, pp 61-110 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2016)

2015

  1. Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy"
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, 2015, pp 90-100 Downloads

2014

  1. Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, 2014, pp 1-51 Downloads View citations (208)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
    Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2015)

2009

  1. A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output
    A chapter in Price Index Concepts and Measurement, 2009, pp 273-320 Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2004

  1. The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom?
    A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, 2004, pp 9-82 Downloads View citations (71)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

2001

  1. Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?
    A chapter in New Developments in Productivity Analysis, 2001, pp 225-302 Downloads View citations (157)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
 
Page updated 2023-03-24