Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?

John Fernald () and Huiyu Li

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019

Abstract: Estimates suggest the new normal pace for U.S. GDP growth remains between 1% and 1%, noticeably slower than the typical pace since World War II. The slowdown stems mainly from demographic trends that have slowed labor force growth, about which there is relatively little uncertainty. A larger challenge is productivity. Achieving GDP growth consistently above 1% will require much faster productivity growth than the United States has typically experienced since the 1970s.

Date: 2019
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