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FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2019

From Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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Yield Curve Responses to Introducing Negative Policy Rates Downloads
Jens Christensen
How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT Downloads
John Fernald, Neil Gerstein and Mark Spiegel
Are Workers Losing to Robots? Downloads
Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu
Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices Downloads
Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens
A New Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Tradeoffs in a Changing World Downloads
Mary Daly
Negative Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in Japan Downloads
Jens Christensen and Mark Spiegel
Unemployment: Lower for Longer? Downloads
Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta
The Brexit Price Spike Downloads
Neil Gerstein, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Adam Shapiro
Why Is Inflation Low Globally? Downloads
Oscar Jorda, Chitra Marti, Fernanda Nechio and Eric Tallman
How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth? Downloads
Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Mark Watson
Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth? Downloads
John Fernald and Huiyu Li
Why Is the Fed’s Balance Sheet Still So Big? Downloads
Andrew Foerster and Sylvain Leduc
Is the Hot Economy Pulling New Workers into the Labor Force? Downloads
Régis Barnichon
The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound Downloads
Jens Christensen
Improving the Phillips Curve with an Interaction Variable Downloads
Kevin Lansing
The Evolution of the FOMC’s Explicit Inflation Target Downloads
Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson
Banks’ Real Estate Exposure and Resilience Downloads
Simon Kwan
Does the Fed Know More about the Economy? Downloads
Pascal Paul
Climate Change and the Federal Reserve Downloads
Glenn Rudebusch
Modeling Financial Crises Downloads
Pascal Paul
Inflationary Effects of Trade Disputes with China Downloads
Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Doris Wilson
Measuring Connectedness between the Largest Banks Downloads
Galina Hale, Jose Lopez and Shannon Sledz
Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve Downloads
Oscar Jorda, Chitra Marti, Fernanda Nechio and Eric Tallman
How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped the Recovery? Downloads
Vasco Cúrdia
Nonmanufacturing as an Engine of Growth Downloads
Huiyu Li
Does Ultra-Low Unemployment Spur Rapid Wage Growth? Downloads
Sylvain Leduc, Chitra Marti and Daniel Wilson
How Much Do We Spend on Imports? Downloads
Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Doris Wilson


Using Sentiment and Momentum to Predict Stock Returns Downloads
Kevin Lansing and Michael Tubbs
Do Opioids Slow Return to Work after Injuries? Downloads
David Neumark and Bogdan Savych
A Review of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy Downloads
Glenn Rudebusch
Has Inflation Sustainably Reached Target? Downloads
Adam Shapiro
The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections Downloads
Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Annemarie Schweinert
Why Aren’t U.S. Workers Working? Downloads
Mary Daly, Joseph H. Pedtke, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Annemarie Schweinert
The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook Downloads
Jens Christensen
How Persistent Are the Effects of Sentiment Shocks? Downloads
Jess Benhabib, Ben Shapiro and Mark Spiegel
The Prime-Age Workforce and Labor Market Polarization Downloads
Robert Valletta and Nathaniel Barlow
Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions Downloads
Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens
The Financial Crisis at 10: Will We Ever Recover? Downloads
Régis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and Alexander Ziegenbein
Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad Downloads
Tim Mahedy and Daniel Wilson
Can the Income-Expenditure Discrepancy Improve Forecasts? Downloads
James Aylward, Kevin Lansing and Tim Mahedy
Do Foreign Funds Matter for Emerging Market Bond Liquidity? Downloads
Jens Christensen, Eric Fischer and Patrick Shultz
Getting from Diversity to Inclusion in Economics Downloads
Mary Daly
Is GDP Overstating Economic Activity? Downloads
Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Eric Tallman
The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising? Downloads
John Williams
How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices Downloads
Galina Hale, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Marianna Kudlyak and Patrick Shultz
How Much Consumption Responds to Government Stimulus Downloads
Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak and M. Saif Mehkari
Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth Downloads
John Williams
Raising the Speed Limit on Future Growth Downloads
Mary Daly
Do Adjustment Lags Matter for Inflation-Indexed Bonds? Downloads
Jens Christensen
Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve Downloads
Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens
Monetary Policy Cycles and Financial Stability Downloads
Pascal Paul
Do Job Market Networks Help Recovery from Mass Layoffs? Downloads
David Neumark, Judith K. Hellerstein and Mark Kutzbach
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 Downloads
John Fernald, Robert E. Hall, James H. Stock and Mark Watson
Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts Downloads
John Williams
How Do Banks Cope with Loss? Downloads
Rhys Bidder, John Krainer and Adam Shapiro
Valuation Ratios for Households and Businesses Downloads
Thomas Mertens, Patrick Shultz and Michael Tubbs
Page updated 2019-10-18