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FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2018

From Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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A Review of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy Downloads
Glenn Rudebusch
Has Inflation Sustainably Reached Target? Downloads
Adam Shapiro
The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections Downloads
Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Annemarie Schweinert
Why Aren’t U.S. Workers Working? Downloads
Mary Daly, Joseph H. Pedtke, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Annemarie Schweinert
The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook Downloads
Jens Christensen
How Persistent Are the Effects of Sentiment Shocks? Downloads
Jess Benhabib, Ben Shapiro and Mark Spiegel
The Prime-Age Workforce and Labor Market Polarization Downloads
Robert Valletta and Nathaniel Barlow
Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions Downloads
Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens
The Financial Crisis at 10: Will We Ever Recover? Downloads
Régis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and Alexander Ziegenbein
Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad Downloads
Tim Mahedy and Daniel Wilson
Can the Income-Expenditure Discrepancy Improve Forecasts? Downloads
James Aylward, Kevin Lansing and Tim Mahedy
Do Foreign Funds Matter for Emerging Market Bond Liquidity? Downloads
Jens Christensen, Eric Fischer and Patrick Shultz
Getting from Diversity to Inclusion in Economics Downloads
Mary Daly
Is GDP Overstating Economic Activity? Downloads
Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Eric Tallman
The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising? Downloads
John Williams
How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices Downloads
Galina Hale, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Marianna Kudlyak and Patrick Shultz
How Much Consumption Responds to Government Stimulus Downloads
Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak and M. Saif Mehkari
Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth Downloads
John Williams
Raising the Speed Limit on Future Growth Downloads
Mary Daly
Do Adjustment Lags Matter for Inflation-Indexed Bonds? Downloads
Jens Christensen
Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve Downloads
Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens
Monetary Policy Cycles and Financial Stability Downloads
Pascal Paul
Do Job Market Networks Help Recovery from Mass Layoffs? Downloads
David Neumark, Judith K. Hellerstein and Mark Kutzbach
The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 Downloads
John Fernald, Robert E. Hall, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts Downloads
John Williams
How Do Banks Cope with Loss? Downloads
Rhys Bidder, John Krainer and Adam Shapiro
Valuation Ratios for Households and Businesses Downloads
Thomas Mertens, Patrick Shultz and Michael Tubbs


Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act Downloads
John Williams
What's Down with Inflation? Downloads
Tim Mahedy and Adam Shapiro
A New Conundrum in the Bond Market? Downloads
Michael Bauer
Stock Market Valuation and the Macroeconomy Downloads
Kevin Lansing
The Perennial Problem of Predicting Potential Downloads
John Williams
Missing Growth from Creative Destruction Downloads
Pete Klenow and Huiyu Li
Has the Wage Phillips Curve Gone Dormant? Downloads
Sylvain Leduc and Daniel Wilson
Interest Rates and the "New Normal" Downloads
John Williams
China's Exchange Rate Policies and U.S. Financial Markets Downloads
Thomas Mertens and Patrick Shultz
Demographic Transition and Low U.S. Interest Rates Downloads
Carlos Carvalho, Andrea Ferrero and Fernanda Nechio
Disappointing Facts about the Black-White Wage Gap Downloads
Mary Daly, Bart Hobijn and Joseph H. Pedtke
New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates Downloads
Jens Christensen and Glenn Rudebusch
Forecasting China's Role in World Oil Demand Downloads
Deepa Dhume Datta and Robert Vigfusson
The Natural Rate of Unemployment over the Past 100 Years Downloads
Regis Barnichon and Christian Matthes
Monetary Policy's Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth Downloads
John Williams
Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends Downloads
Michael Bauer
What's Holding Back Business Formation? Downloads
Patrick Kiernan and Huiyu Li
The Global Growth Slump: Causes and Consequences Downloads
John Williams
Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates? Downloads
John Fernald, Thomas Mertens and Patrick Shultz
How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined? Downloads
Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak
R-star, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy Downloads
Kevin Lansing
Reserve Requirements as a Chinese Macro Policy Tool Downloads
Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel
Constructing the Home Purchase Sentiment Index Downloads
James A. Wilcox
Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks and Strategies in a Low R-star World Downloads
John Williams
Measuring Interest Rate Risk in the Very Long Term Downloads
Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Paul Mussche
Brexit: Whither the Pound? Downloads
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Galina Hale
What's in the News? A New Economic Indicator Downloads
Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson
Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses? Downloads
Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor
Measuring Labor Utilization: The Non-Employment Index Downloads
Marianna Kudlyak
How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market? Downloads
Régis Barnichon and Geert Mesters
Age Discrimination and Hiring of Older Workers Downloads
David Neumark, Ian Burn and Patrick Button
Three Questions on R-star Downloads
John Williams
Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth? Downloads
David Byrne, John Fernald and Marshall B. Reinsdorf
Do All New Treasuries Trade at a Premium? Downloads
Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Patrick Shultz
Looking Back, Looking Ahead Downloads
John Williams
How Does Business Dynamism Link to Productivity Growth? Downloads
Huiyu Li
Page updated 2018-12-10