FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2025

From Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library ().

Access Statistics for this journal.
Is something missing from the series or not right? See the RePEc data check for the archive and series.

2017

How Does Business Dynamism Link to Productivity Growth?

Huiyu Li

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

John Williams

Do All New Treasuries Trade at a Premium?

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Patrick Shultz

Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth?

David Byrne, John Fernald and Marshall B. Reinsdorf

Three Questions on R-star

John Williams

Age Discrimination and Hiring of Older Workers

Ian Burn, Patrick Button and David Neumark

How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market?

Régis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

Measuring Labor Utilization: The Non-Employment Index

Marianna Kudlyak

Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

What's in the News? A New Economic Indicator

Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson

Brexit: Whither the Pound?

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Galina Hale

Measuring Interest Rate Risk in the Very Long Term

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Paul Mussche

Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks and Strategies in a Low R-star World

John Williams

Constructing the Home Purchase Sentiment Index

James A. Wilcox

Reserve Requirements as a Chinese Macro Policy Tool

Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel

R-star, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy

Kevin Lansing

How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?

John Fernald, Thomas Mertens and Patrick Shultz

The Global Growth Slump: Causes and Consequences

John Williams

What's Holding Back Business Formation?

Patrick Kiernan and Huiyu Li

Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends

Michael Bauer

Monetary Policy's Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth

John Williams

The Natural Rate of Unemployment over the Past 100 Years

Régis Barnichon and Christian Matthes

Forecasting China's Role in World Oil Demand

Deepa Datta and Robert Vigfusson

New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates

Jens Christensen and Glenn Rudebusch

Disappointing Facts about the Black-White Wage Gap

Mary Daly, Bart Hobijn and Joseph H. Pedtke

Demographic Transition and Low U.S. Interest Rates

Carlos Carvalho, Andrea Ferrero and Fernanda Nechio

China's Exchange Rate Policies and U.S. Financial Markets

Thomas Mertens and Patrick Shultz

Interest Rates and the \\"New Normal\\"

John Williams

Has the Wage Phillips Curve Gone Dormant?

Sylvain Leduc and Daniel Wilson

Missing Growth from Creative Destruction

Pete Klenow and Huiyu Li

The Perennial Problem of Predicting Potential

John Williams

Stock Market Valuation and the Macroeconomy

Kevin Lansing

A New Conundrum in the Bond Market?

Michael Bauer

What's Down with Inflation?

Tim Mahedy and Adam Shapiro

Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act

John Williams

2016

After the first rate hike

John Williams

Changes in labor participation and household income

Robert Hall and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Will the economic recovery die of old age?

Glenn Rudebusch

Is there a case for inflation overshooting?

Vasco Cúrdia

The right profile: economic drivers and the outlook

John Williams

Rules of engagement

John Williams

What's up with wage growth?

Mary Daly, Bart Hobijn and Benjamin Pyle

Worst-case scenarios and asset prices

Rhys Bidder

How much does the EMU benefit trade?

Reuven Glick and Andrew Rose

Do local bond markets help fight inflation?

Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

Differing views on long-term inflation expectations

Jens Christensen and Jose Lopez

Data dependence awakens

Benjamin Pyle and John Williams

The elusive boost from cheap oil

Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran and Robert Vigfusson

Aggregation in bank stress tests

Galina Hale and John Krainer

Medicare payment cuts continue to restrain inflation

Jeffrey Clemens, Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro

Economic outlook: springtime is on my mind

John Williams

Household formation among young adults

Frederick Furlong

China's IPO activity and equity market volatility

Frank Packer and Mark Spiegel

Energy's impact on inflation expectations

Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro

Do macro variables help forecast interest rates?

Michael Bauer and James Hamilton

Fed communication and the zero lower bound

Carlos Carvalho, Eric Hsu and Fernanda Nechio

Fed policy liftoff and emerging markets

Julia Bevilaqua and Fernanda Nechio

Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World

John Williams

Longview: The Economic Outlook

John Williams

Projecting the Long-Run Natural Rate of Interest

Kevin Lansing

Fed Communication: Words and Numbers

Fernanda Nechio and Rebecca Regan

Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Slow Credit Recovery and Excess Returns on Capital

Zheng Liu and Andrew Tai

Clearing the Fog: The Effects of Weather on Jobs

Catherine van der List and Daniel Wilson

What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?

John Fernald

Consequences of Rising Income Inequality

Kevin Lansing and Agnieszka Markiewicz

Trend Job Growth: Where's Normal?

Rhys Bidder, Tim Mahedy and Robert Valletta

Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?

Fernanda Nechio and Glenn Rudebusch

Job-to-Job Transitions in an Evolving Labor Market

Canyon Bosler and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

TIPS Liquidity and the Outlook for Inflation

Martin M. Andreasen and Jens Christensen

Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

How Important Is Information from FOMC Minutes?

Fernanda Nechio and Daniel Wilson