FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2025

From Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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2016

After the first rate hike

John Williams

Changes in labor participation and household income

Robert Hall and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Will the economic recovery die of old age?

Glenn Rudebusch

Is there a case for inflation overshooting?

Vasco Cúrdia

The right profile: economic drivers and the outlook

John Williams

Rules of engagement

John Williams

What's up with wage growth?

Mary Daly, Bart Hobijn and Benjamin Pyle

Worst-case scenarios and asset prices

Rhys Bidder

How much does the EMU benefit trade?

Reuven Glick and Andrew Rose

Do local bond markets help fight inflation?

Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

Differing views on long-term inflation expectations

Jens Christensen and Jose Lopez

Data dependence awakens

Benjamin Pyle and John Williams

The elusive boost from cheap oil

Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran and Robert Vigfusson

Aggregation in bank stress tests

Galina Hale and John Krainer

Medicare payment cuts continue to restrain inflation

Jeffrey Clemens, Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro

Economic outlook: springtime is on my mind

John Williams

Household formation among young adults

Frederick Furlong

China's IPO activity and equity market volatility

Frank Packer and Mark Spiegel

Energy's impact on inflation expectations

Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro

Do macro variables help forecast interest rates?

Michael Bauer and James Hamilton

Fed communication and the zero lower bound

Carlos Carvalho, Eric Hsu and Fernanda Nechio

Fed policy liftoff and emerging markets

Julia Bevilaqua and Fernanda Nechio

Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World

John Williams

Longview: The Economic Outlook

John Williams

Projecting the Long-Run Natural Rate of Interest

Kevin Lansing

Fed Communication: Words and Numbers

Fernanda Nechio and Rebecca Regan

Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Slow Credit Recovery and Excess Returns on Capital

Zheng Liu and Andrew Tai

Clearing the Fog: The Effects of Weather on Jobs

Catherine van der List and Daniel Wilson

What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?

John Fernald

Consequences of Rising Income Inequality

Kevin Lansing and Agnieszka Markiewicz

Trend Job Growth: Where's Normal?

Rhys Bidder, Tim Mahedy and Robert Valletta

Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?

Fernanda Nechio and Glenn Rudebusch

Job-to-Job Transitions in an Evolving Labor Market

Canyon Bosler and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

TIPS Liquidity and the Outlook for Inflation

Martin M. Andreasen and Jens Christensen

Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

How Important Is Information from FOMC Minutes?

Fernanda Nechio and Daniel Wilson

2015

Why is wage growth so slow?

Mary Daly and Bart Hobijn

Higher education, wages, and polarization

Robert Valletta

Persistent overoptimism about economic growth

Kevin Lansing and Benjamin Pyle

The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth

John Fernald and Bing Wang

Animal spirits and business cycles

Rhys Bidder

Competing for jobs: local taxes and incentives

Daniel Wilson

Do place-based policies matter?

David Neumark and Helen Simpson

The view from here: outlook and monetary policy

John Williams

Mortgaging the future?

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Majority of hires never report looking for a job

Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Bart Hobijn, Patryk Perkowski and Ludo Visschers

Have long-term inflation expectations declined?

Fernanda Nechio

Optimal policy and market-based expectations

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

Did Massachusetts health-care reform affect prices?

Adam Shapiro

Is transition to inflation targeting good for growth?

Galina Hale and Alexej Philippov

Monetary policy and the independence dilemma

John Williams

The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth

Tim Mahedy, Glenn Rudebusch and Daniel Wilson

Looking forward: the path for monetary policy

John Williams

Macroprudential policy in a microprudential world

John Williams

Involuntary part-time work: here to stay?

Robert Valletta and Catherine van der List

Transmission of asset purchases: the role of reserves

Jens Christensen and Signe Krogstrup

The stimulative effect of redistribution

Bart Hobijn and Alexander Nussbacher

Finding normal: natural rates and policy prescriptions

Mary Daly, Fernanda Nechio and Benjamin Pyle

The recovery’s final frontier?

John Williams

Assessing the Recent Behavior of Inflation

Kevin Lansing

Interest rates and house prices: pill or poison?

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Is China’s growth miracle over?

Zheng Liu

Residual seasonality and monetary policy

Benjamin Pyle, Glenn Rudebusch and Daniel Wilson

Measuring monetary policy’s effect on house prices

John Williams

Assessing supervisory scenarios for interest rate risk

Jens Christensen and Jose Lopez

Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?

Michael Bauer and Erin McCarthy

The economic outlook: live long and prosper

John Williams

Why so slow? A gradual return for interest rates

Vasco Cúrdia

Are wages useful in forecasting price inflation?

Rhys Bidder

What’s different about the latest housing boom?

Reuven Glick, Kevin Lansing and Daniel Molitor

Global fallout from China's industrial slowdown

Mark Spiegel

Dancing days are here again: the long road back to maximum employment

John Williams

The effects of minimum wages on employment

David Neumark

Reducing poverty via minimum wages, alternatives

David Neumark