How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market?

Régis Barnichon and Geert Mesters

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017

Abstract: The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a very low level at the end of 2016, raising the question of whether the labor market has become too tight. After applying a new method to adjust for demographic changes in the labor force, the current unemployment rate is still 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point higher than at past labor market peaks. This indicates that the labor market may not be quite as tight as the headline unemployment rate suggests.

Date: 2017
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