FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2025

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2019, volume 2019, articles 31

The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference pp. 5

Galina Hale, Oscar Jorda and Glenn Rudebusch

2019

How Much Do We Spend on Imports?

Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Doris Wilson

Does Ultra-Low Unemployment Spur Rapid Wage Growth?

Sylvain Leduc, Chitra Marti and Daniel Wilson

Nonmanufacturing as an Engine of Growth

Huiyu Li

How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped the Recovery?

Vasco Cúrdia

Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve

Oscar Jorda, Chitra Marti, Fernanda Nechio and Eric Tallman

Measuring Connectedness between the Largest Banks

Galina Hale, Jose Lopez and Shannon Sledz

Inflationary Effects of Trade Disputes with China

Galina Hale, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Doris Wilson

Modeling Financial Crises

Pascal Paul

Climate Change and the Federal Reserve

Glenn Rudebusch

Does the Fed Know More about the Economy?

Pascal Paul

Banks’ Real Estate Exposure and Resilience

Simon Kwan

The Evolution of the FOMC’s Explicit Inflation Target

Adam Shapiro and Daniel Wilson

Improving the Phillips Curve with an Interaction Variable

Kevin Lansing

The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound

Jens Christensen

Is the Hot Economy Pulling New Workers into the Labor Force?

Régis Barnichon

Why Is the Fed’s Balance Sheet Still So Big?

Andrew Foerster and Sylvain Leduc

Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?

John Fernald and Huiyu Li

How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?

Andrew Foerster, Andreas Hornstein, Pierre Daniel Sarte and Mark Watson

Why Is Inflation Low Globally?

Oscar Jorda, Chitra Marti, Fernanda Nechio and Eric Tallman

The Brexit Price Spike

Neil Gerstein, Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio and Adam Shapiro

Unemployment: Lower for Longer?

Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta

Negative Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in Japan

Jens Christensen and Mark Spiegel

A New Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Tradeoffs in a Changing World

Mary Daly

Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices

Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens

Are Workers Losing to Robots?

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

How Severe Is China’s Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT

John Fernald, Neil Gerstein and Mark Spiegel

Yield Curve Responses to Introducing Negative Policy Rates

Jens Christensen

Is Rising Concentration Hampering Productivity Growth?

Pete Klenow, Huiyu Li and Theodore Naff

Riders on the Storm

Oscar Jorda and Alan Taylor

Involuntary Part-Time Work a Decade after the Recession

Marianna Kudlyak

2018

Valuation Ratios for Households and Businesses

Thomas Mertens, Patrick Shultz and Michael Tubbs

How Do Banks Cope with Loss?

Rhys Bidder, John Krainer and Adam Shapiro

Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts

John Williams

The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009

John Fernald, Robert Hall, James Stock and Mark Watson

Do Job Market Networks Help Recovery from Mass Layoffs?

Judith Hellerstein, Mark Kutzbach and David Neumark

Monetary Policy Cycles and Financial Stability

Pascal Paul

Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve

Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens

Do Adjustment Lags Matter for Inflation-Indexed Bonds?

Jens Christensen

Raising the Speed Limit on Future Growth

Mary Daly

Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth

John Williams

How Much Consumption Responds to Government Stimulus

Marios Karabarbounis, Marianna Kudlyak and M. Saif Mehkari

How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices

Galina Hale, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Marianna Kudlyak and Patrick Shultz

The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?

John Williams

Is GDP Overstating Economic Activity?

Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Eric Tallman

Getting from Diversity to Inclusion in Economics

Mary Daly

Do Foreign Funds Matter for Emerging Market Bond Liquidity?

Jens Christensen, Eric Fischer and Patrick Shultz

Can the Income-Expenditure Discrepancy Improve Forecasts?

James Aylward, Kevin Lansing and Tim Mahedy

Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad

Tim Mahedy and Daniel Wilson

The Financial Crisis at 10: Will We Ever Recover?

Régis Barnichon, Christian Matthes and Alexander Ziegenbein

Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions

Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens

The Prime-Age Workforce and Labor Market Polarization

Nathaniel Barlow and Robert Valletta

How Persistent Are the Effects of Sentiment Shocks?

Jess Benhabib, Ben Shapiro and Mark Spiegel

The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook

Jens Christensen

Why Aren’t U.S. Workers Working?

Mary Daly, Joseph H. Pedtke, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Annemarie Schweinert

The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections

Andreas Hornstein, Marianna Kudlyak and Annemarie Schweinert

Has Inflation Sustainably Reached Target?

Adam Shapiro

A Review of the Fed’s Unconventional Monetary Policy

Glenn Rudebusch

Do Opioids Slow Return to Work after Injuries?

David Neumark and Bogdan Savych

Using Sentiment and Momentum to Predict Stock Returns

Kevin Lansing and Michael Tubbs