FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2025

From Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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2015

Why is wage growth so slow?

Mary Daly and Bart Hobijn

Higher education, wages, and polarization

Robert Valletta

Persistent overoptimism about economic growth

Kevin Lansing and Benjamin Pyle

The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth

John Fernald and Bing Wang

Animal spirits and business cycles

Rhys Bidder

Competing for jobs: local taxes and incentives

Daniel Wilson

Do place-based policies matter?

David Neumark and Helen Simpson

The view from here: outlook and monetary policy

John Williams

Mortgaging the future?

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Majority of hires never report looking for a job

Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Bart Hobijn, Patryk Perkowski and Ludo Visschers

Have long-term inflation expectations declined?

Fernanda Nechio

Optimal policy and market-based expectations

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

Did Massachusetts health-care reform affect prices?

Adam Shapiro

Is transition to inflation targeting good for growth?

Galina Hale and Alexej Philippov

Monetary policy and the independence dilemma

John Williams

The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth

Tim Mahedy, Glenn Rudebusch and Daniel Wilson

Looking forward: the path for monetary policy

John Williams

Macroprudential policy in a microprudential world

John Williams

Involuntary part-time work: here to stay?

Robert Valletta and Catherine van der List

Transmission of asset purchases: the role of reserves

Jens Christensen and Signe Krogstrup

The stimulative effect of redistribution

Bart Hobijn and Alexander Nussbacher

Finding normal: natural rates and policy prescriptions

Mary Daly, Fernanda Nechio and Benjamin Pyle

The recovery’s final frontier?

John Williams

Assessing the Recent Behavior of Inflation

Kevin Lansing

Interest rates and house prices: pill or poison?

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Is China’s growth miracle over?

Zheng Liu

Residual seasonality and monetary policy

Benjamin Pyle, Glenn Rudebusch and Daniel Wilson

Measuring monetary policy’s effect on house prices

John Williams

Assessing supervisory scenarios for interest rate risk

Jens Christensen and Jose Lopez

Can we rely on market-based inflation forecasts?

Michael Bauer and Erin McCarthy

The economic outlook: live long and prosper

John Williams

Why so slow? A gradual return for interest rates

Vasco Cúrdia

Are wages useful in forecasting price inflation?

Rhys Bidder

What’s different about the latest housing boom?

Reuven Glick, Kevin Lansing and Daniel Molitor

Global fallout from China's industrial slowdown

Mark Spiegel

Dancing days are here again: the long road back to maximum employment

John Williams

The effects of minimum wages on employment

David Neumark

Reducing poverty via minimum wages, alternatives

David Neumark

2014

Drivers of mortgage choices by risky borrowers

Frederick Furlong, David Lang and Yelena Takhtamanova

Housing, banking, and the recovery: the outlook

John Williams

Job uncertainty and Chinese household savings

Zheng Liu

When will the Fed end its zero rate policy?

Jens Christensen

Fed tapering news and emerging markets

Fernanda Nechio

State hiring credits and recent job growth

Diego Grijalva and David Neumark

Private credit and public debt in financial crises

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Stress testing the Fed

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Glenn Rudebusch

Career changes decline during recessions

Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Bart Hobijn and Ludo Visschers

Age discrimination and the Great Recession

Patrick Button and David Neumark

How important are hedge funds in a crisis?

Reint Gropp

Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law

Mary Daly, John Fernald, Oscar Jorda and Fernanda Nechio

Is it still worth going to college?

Leila Bengali and Mary Daly

Financial market outlook for inflation

Michael Bauer and Jens Christensen

The slowdown in existing home sales

John Krainer

The economic recovery and monetary policy: the road back to ordinary

John Williams

Household expectations and monetary policy

Carlos Carvalho and Fernanda Nechio

Financial stability and monetary policy: happy marriage or untenable union?

John Williams

Will inflation remain low?

Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro

Slow business start-ups and the job recovery

Elizabeth Laderman and Sylvain Leduc

Bank counterparties and collateral usage

Hamed Faquiryan and Marius Rodriguez

The wage growth gap for recent college grads

Leila Bengali and Bart Hobijn

Long road to normal for bank business lending

Simon Kwan

Home currency issuance in global debt markets

Galina Hale, Peter Jones and Mark Spiegel

Fueling road spending with federal stimulus

Sylvain Leduc and Daniel Wilson

Assessing expectations of monetary policy

Jens Christensen and Simon Kwan

Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy: conference summary

Reuven Glick and Mark Spiegel

How much do Medicare cuts reduce inflation?

Jeffrey Clemens, Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro

Has China’s economy become more “standard”?

John Fernald, Eric Hsu and Mark Spiegel

Options-based expectations of future policy rates

Michael Bauer

Navigating toward normal: the future for policy

John Williams

Housing market headwinds

John Krainer and Erin McCarthy

Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?

Sylvain Leduc and Glenn Rudebusch

The risks to the inflation outlook

Vasco Cúrdia

Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged

Early Elias, Helen Irvin and Oscar Jorda

Mixed signals: labor markets and monetary policy

Canyon Bosler, Mary Daly and Fernanda Nechio

Innovation and incentives: evidence from biotech

Enrico Moretti and Daniel Wilson

Global aging: more headwinds for U.S. stocks?

Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Bing Wang