FRBSF Economic Letter

1973 - 2025

From Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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2014

Drivers of mortgage choices by risky borrowers

Frederick Furlong, David Lang and Yelena Takhtamanova

Housing, banking, and the recovery: the outlook

John Williams

Job uncertainty and Chinese household savings

Zheng Liu

When will the Fed end its zero rate policy?

Jens Christensen

Fed tapering news and emerging markets

Fernanda Nechio

State hiring credits and recent job growth

Diego Grijalva and David Neumark

Private credit and public debt in financial crises

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Stress testing the Fed

Jens Christensen, Jose Lopez and Glenn Rudebusch

Career changes decline during recessions

Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Bart Hobijn and Ludo Visschers

Age discrimination and the Great Recession

Patrick Button and David Neumark

How important are hedge funds in a crisis?

Reint Gropp

Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law

Mary Daly, John Fernald, Oscar Jorda and Fernanda Nechio

Is it still worth going to college?

Leila Bengali and Mary Daly

Financial market outlook for inflation

Michael Bauer and Jens Christensen

The slowdown in existing home sales

John Krainer

The economic recovery and monetary policy: the road back to ordinary

John Williams

Household expectations and monetary policy

Carlos Carvalho and Fernanda Nechio

Financial stability and monetary policy: happy marriage or untenable union?

John Williams

Will inflation remain low?

Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro

Slow business start-ups and the job recovery

Elizabeth Laderman and Sylvain Leduc

Bank counterparties and collateral usage

Hamed Faquiryan and Marius Rodriguez

The wage growth gap for recent college grads

Leila Bengali and Bart Hobijn

Long road to normal for bank business lending

Simon Kwan

Home currency issuance in global debt markets

Galina Hale, Peter Jones and Mark Spiegel

Fueling road spending with federal stimulus

Sylvain Leduc and Daniel Wilson

Assessing expectations of monetary policy

Jens Christensen and Simon Kwan

Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy: conference summary

Reuven Glick and Mark Spiegel

How much do Medicare cuts reduce inflation?

Jeffrey Clemens, Joshua Gottlieb and Adam Shapiro

Has China’s economy become more “standard”?

John Fernald, Eric Hsu and Mark Spiegel

Options-based expectations of future policy rates

Michael Bauer

Navigating toward normal: the future for policy

John Williams

Housing market headwinds

John Krainer and Erin McCarthy

Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?

Sylvain Leduc and Glenn Rudebusch

The risks to the inflation outlook

Vasco Cúrdia

Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged

Early Elias, Helen Irvin and Oscar Jorda

Mixed signals: labor markets and monetary policy

Canyon Bosler, Mary Daly and Fernanda Nechio

Innovation and incentives: evidence from biotech

Enrico Moretti and Daniel Wilson

Global aging: more headwinds for U.S. stocks?

Zheng Liu, Mark Spiegel and Bing Wang

2013, articles dec2

Taxes, transfers, and state economic differences

Israel Malkin and Daniel Wilson

2013, articles nov18

Expectations for monetary policy liftoff

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

2013, articles nov12

Rebalancing the economy: a tale of two countries

John Williams

2013, articles nov4

Implied rate correlations and policy expectations

Allan M. Malz

2013, articles nov25

Consumer inflation views in three countries

Maura Lynch and Bharat Trehan

2013, articles oct21

Why are housing inventories low?

William Hedberg and John Krainer

2013, articles oct15

Gauging the momentum of the labor recovery

Benjamin Bradshaw, Mary Daly and Bart Hobijn

2013, articles oct7

Will unconventional policy be the new normal?

John Williams

2013, articles sept9

Small businesses hit hard by weak job gains

Elizabeth Laderman

2013, articles sept30

The zero lower bound and longer-term yields

Eric Swanson

2013, articles sept3

The changing role of disabled children benefits

Richard Burkhauser and Mary Daly

2013, articles sept23

Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?

John Williams

2013, articles aug19

The price of stock and bond risk in recoveries

Simon Kwan

2013, articles aug26

What’s behind the increase in part-time work?

Leila Bengali and Robert Valletta

2013, articles aug12

How stimulatory are large-scale asset purchases?

Vasco Cúrdia and Andrea Ferrero

2013, articles july1

The economic recovery: past, present, and future

John Williams

2013, articles july15

The path of wage growth and unemployment

Mary Daly, Bart Hobijn and Timothy Ni

2013, articles july22

Uncertainty and the slow labor market recovery

Sylvain Leduc and Zheng Liu

2013, articles july8

What caused the decline in long-term yields?

Michael Bauer and Glenn Rudebusch

2013, articles june3

Fiscal headwinds: Is the other shoe about to drop?

Brian Lucking and Daniel Wilson

2013, articles june24

The future of Social Security Disability Insurance

Mary Daly, Brian Lucking and Jonathan Schwabish

2013, articles may6

Crises before and after the creation of the Fed

Early Elias and Oscar Jorda

2013, articles may13

Will labor force participation bounce back?

Leila Bengali, Mary Daly and Robert Valletta

2013, articles may20

Economic outlook: moving in the right direction

John Williams

2013, articles apr22

Commercial real estate and low interest rates

John Krainer

2013, articles apr15

Job growth and economic growth in California

Jennifer Muz and David Neumark

2013, articles apr8

Can risk aversion explain stock price volatility?

Stephen LeRoy

2013, articles apr1

Unconventional monetary policy and the dollar

Reuven Glick and Sylvain Leduc

2013, articles mar25

On the reliability of Chinese output figures

John Fernald, Israel Malkin and Mark Spiegel

2013, articles mar11

What’s driving medical-care spending growth?

Adam Shapiro

2013, articles mar4

U.S. economic mobility: the dream and the data

Leila Bengali and Mary Daly

2013, articles feb4

Long-term unemployment: what do we know?

Robert Valletta

2013, articles feb11

Aggregate demand and state-level employment

Atif Mian and Amir Sufi

2013, articles feb25

The economy and Fed policy: follow the demand

John Williams

2013, articles jan21

Monetary policy in uncertain times

John Williams

2013, articles jan14

Balance of payments in the European periphery

Galina Hale

2013

Why do measures of inflation disagree?

Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro

Labor markets in the global financial crisis

Mary Daly, John Fernald, Oscar Jorda and Fernanda Nechio