The elusive boost from cheap oil

Sylvain Leduc, Kevin Moran and Robert Vigfusson

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016

Abstract: The plunge in oil prices since the middle of 2014 has not translated into a dramatic boost for consumer spending, which has continued to grow moderately. This has been particularly surprising since the sharp drop should free up income for households to use toward other purchases. Lessons from an empirical model of learning suggest that the weak response may reflect that consumers initially viewed cheaper oil as a temporary condition. If oil prices remain low, consumer perceptions could change, which would boost spending.

Date: 2016
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