Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016

Abstract: The collapse of an asset price bubble usually creates a great deal of economic disruption. But bubbles are hard to anticipate and costly to deflate. As a result, policymakers struggle to determine how they should respond, if at all. Evaluating the economic costs of past equity and real estate bubbles?with particular attention to how much credit grew during boom phases?can provide valuable insights for this debate. A recent study finds that equity bubbles are relatively benign. More danger comes from housing bubbles in which credit grows rapidly.

Date: 2016
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