Details about Oscar Jorda

E-mail:
Homepage:	https://sites.google.com/site/oscarjorda/
Postal address:	UC-Davis: ojorda@ucdavis.edu FRBSF: oscar.jorda@sf.frb.org
Workplace:	Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC) Economics Department, University of California-Davis, (more information at EDIRC) Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Oscar Jorda.

Last updated 2022-10-26. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pjo46

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Working Papers

2022

1. Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)

2021

2. Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
   Working Papers Series, Institute for New Economic Thinking
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (11)
   ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany (2020) View citations (13)
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2020) View citations (12)
   Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2020) View citations (11)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (12)
   See also Journal Article in Review of Financial Studies (2022)

2020

3. Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (11)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (12)
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2020) View citations (12)
4. Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (15)
   Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2020) View citations (15)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (16)
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2020) View citations (15)
5. Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (138)
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (212)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (210)
   See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2022)
6. The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (61)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (59)
   2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) View citations (6)
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2020) View citations (41)

2019

7. Inflation Globally
   Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2018)
   See also Chapter (2020)
8. Riders on the Storm
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2019) View citations (3)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article in FRBSF Economic Letter (2019)
9. The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2019) View citations (3)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (3)

2018

10. Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (12)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (13)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2020)
11. Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (16)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (23)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in IMF Economic Review (2019)
12. The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (4)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2017) View citations (6)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (6)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (25)
    See also Journal Article in The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2019)

2017

13. Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (43)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2017) View citations (39)
    2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2017) View citations (43)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (43)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Studies (2021)

2016

14. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (78)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (92)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (94)
    See also Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2017)
    Chapter (2016)
15. The Great Mortgaging
    2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (50)

2015

16. Leveraged Bubbles
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (46)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2015) View citations (46)
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2015) View citations (46)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) View citations (46)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (46)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2015)

2014

17. Betting the House
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (27)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (29)
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2014) View citations (27)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2014) View citations (8)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2014) View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2015)
    Chapter (2014)
18. Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in National Institute Economic Review (2014)
19. Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences
    Working Papers Series, Institute for New Economic Thinking View citations (3)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (33)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (20)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (32)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2013) View citations (33)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of the European Economic Association (2016)
    Chapter (2013)
20. The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (64)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (74)
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2014) View citations (62)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (63)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2014) View citations (47)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Policy (2016)
21. The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy
    SAFE Working Paper Series, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE View citations (5)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (77)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (59)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (55)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (2016)

2013

22. Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2014)
23. Okun’s Macroscope: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Productivity and the Comovement between Output and Unemployment
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
24. Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (38)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (34)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2018)
25. Shocks and Adjustments
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)
26. When Credit Bites Back
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (550)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2013)

2012

27. Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
28. When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (33)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (142)
    Working Papers Series, Institute for New Economic Thinking (2012) View citations (38)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2011) View citations (151)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011) View citations (50)

2011

29. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (5)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2011) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association (2013)
30. Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (57)

2010

31. A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (5)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2010) View citations (9)
32. Carry Trade
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
33. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (2011)
    Chapter (2010)
34. Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (15)
    Also in Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2010) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
35. Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (61)
    See also Journal Article in IMF Economic Review (2011)
36. The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (7)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (2012)

2009

37. The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (20)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2012)
38. The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics

2008

39. Path Forecast Evaluation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
    Also in Economics Working Papers, European University Institute (2008) View citations (2)
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2008) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)

2007

40. Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (12)
    Also in Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2007) View citations (9)
41. Inference for Impulse Responses
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (2)
42. Joint Inference and Counterfactual experimentation for Impulse Response Functions by Local Projections
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics

2006

43. Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (3)

2004

44. Model-Free Impulse Responses
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004)
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2003)

2003

45. A model for the federal funds rate target
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2000) View citations (29)
    Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (2002)
46. IMPROVED TESTING AND SPECIFICATION OF SMOOTH TRANSITION REGRESSION MODELS
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística (1997) View citations (6)
    Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (35)
47. Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2000)
    Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Review (2001)
48. Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics
49. Non-Institutional Market Making Behavior: The Dalian Futures Exchange
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
50. RANDOM-TIME AGGREGATION IN PARTIAL AJUSTMENT MODELS
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (1999)
51. STOCHASTIC PROCESSES SUBJECT TO TIME SCALE TRANSFORMATIONS: AN APPLICATION TO HIGH-FREQUENCY FX DATA
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University
    Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics
52. The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Policy Review (2002)
53. The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (1)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) View citations (9)
54. The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (18)
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2003)
55. Time-Scale Transformations of Discrete-Time Processes
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Time Series Analysis (2004)

2001

56. MARKET-MAKING BEHAVIOR IN FUTURES MARKETS
    2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

2000

57. Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2004)
    Chapter (2017)

1998

58. Decision Rules for Selecting between Exponential and Logistic STAR
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (3)

1997

59. Testing nonlinearity: decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential star models
    DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Spanish Economic Review (2001)

Journal Articles

2022

1. Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022, 104, (1), 166-175
   See also Working Paper (2020)
2. Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022, 2022, (25), 6 View citations (1)
3. Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022, 2022, (07), 06 View citations (3)
4. Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
   Review of Financial Studies, 2022, 35, (10), 4561-4586 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper (2021)

2021

5. Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
   Review of Economic Studies, 2021, 88, (1), 260-286 View citations (21)
   See also Working Paper (2017)

2020

6. The Fog of Numbers
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020, 2020, (20), 5
7. The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, 112, (C), 22-40 View citations (52)
   See also Working Paper (2018)

2019

8. Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
   IMF Economic Review, 2019, 67, (1), 109-150 View citations (48)
   See also Working Paper (2018)
9. Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (6)
10. Riders on the Storm
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2019)
11. The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019, 2019, (31), 5
12. The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2019, 134, (3), 1225-1298 View citations (90)
    See also Working Paper (2018)
13. Why Is Inflation Low Globally?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (6)

2018

14. Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2018, 36, (3), 371-387 View citations (80)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2017

15. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2017, 31, (1), 213 - 263 View citations (225)
    See also Chapter (2016)
    Working Paper (2016)
16. Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017

2016

17. Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (2)
18. SOVEREIGNS VERSUS BANKS: CREDIT, CRISES, AND CONSEQUENCES
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2016, 14, (1), 45-79 View citations (88)
    Also in Journal of the European Economic Association, 2016, 14, (1), 45-79 (2016) View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
    Chapter (2013)
19. The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
    Economic Journal, 2016, 126, (590), 219-255 View citations (204)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
20. The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles
    Economic Policy, 2016, 31, (85), 107-152 View citations (273)
    See also Working Paper (2014)

2015

21. Betting the house
    Journal of International Economics, 2015, 96, (S1), S2-S18 View citations (148)
    See also Chapter (2014)
    Working Paper (2014)
22. Interest rates and house prices: pill or poison?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (1)
23. Leveraged bubbles
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 76, (S), S1-S20 View citations (48)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
24. Mortgaging the future?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015

2014

25. Assessing the historical role of credit: Business cycles, financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (3), 729-740 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2013)
26. Computing systemic risk using multiple behavioral and keystone networks: The emergence of a crisis in primate societies and banks
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (3), 797-806 View citations (2)
27. Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (19)
28. Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
    National Institute Economic Review, 2014, 228, R58-R64 View citations (1)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2014, 228, (1), R58-R64 (2014) View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper (2014)
29. Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (4)
30. Private credit and public debt in financial crises
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (13)

2013

31. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011
    SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2013, 4, (1), 1-34 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
32. Crises before and after the creation of the Fed
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (may6) View citations (1)
33. Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29, (3), 456-468 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper (2012)
    Working Paper (2010)
34. Labor markets in the global financial crisis
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013 View citations (2)
35. When Credit Bites Back
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, 45, (s2), 3-28 View citations (275)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, 45, (s2), 3-28 (2013) View citations (553)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2012

36. Credit: a starring role in the downturn
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (apr16)
37. THE HARROD–BALASSA–SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS: REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND THEIR LONG‐RUN EQUILIBRIUM
    International Economic Review, 2012, 53, (2), 609-634 View citations (49)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
38. The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself
    Journal of International Economics, 2012, 88, (1), 74-90 View citations (90)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
39. Will the jobless rate drop take a break?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (dec17) View citations (9)

2011

40. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2011, 7, (1), 357 - 388 View citations (6)
    See also Chapter (2010)
    Working Paper (2010)
41. ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE BY THE METHOD OF PROJECTION MINIMUM DISTANCE: AN APPLICATION TO THE NEW KEYNESIAN HYBRID PHILLIPS CURVE
    International Economic Review, 2011, 52, (2), 461-487 View citations (13)
42. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (2), 246-77 View citations (196)
43. Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
    IMF Economic Review, 2011, 59, (2), 340-378 View citations (429)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
44. Future recession risks: an update
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.14) View citations (1)
45. Variable capital rules in a risky world
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (aug29)

2010

46. Book Review: New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis
    Econometric Reviews, 2010, 29, (2), 243-246
47. Diagnosing recessions
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (feb16)
48. Future recession risks
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (aug9) View citations (2)
49. Path forecast evaluation
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (4), 635-662 View citations (47)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2009

50. Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2009, 91, (3), 629-647 View citations (21)

2007

51. Do monetary aggregates help forecast inflation?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (apr13) View citations (10)

2005

52. Can monetary policy influence long-term interest rates?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (may20) View citations (1)
53. Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
    American Economic Review, 2005, 95, (1), 161-182 View citations (861)

2004

54. Measuring monetary policy interdependence
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2004, 23, (5), 761-783 View citations (12)
    See also Chapter (2017)
    Working Paper (2000)
55. The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2004, 36, (3), 387-405 View citations (63)
56. Time‐scale transformations of discrete time processes
    Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2004, 25, (6), 873-894 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

2003

57. MODELING HIGH-FREQUENCY FOREIGN EXCHANGE DATA DYNAMICS
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2003, 7, (4), 618-635 View citations (1)
58. The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2003, 6, (4), 941-962 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

2002

59. A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target
    Journal of Political Economy, 2002, 110, (5), 1135-1167 View citations (146)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
60. The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data
    Economic Policy Review, 2002, 8, (May), 29-48 View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

2001

61. Measuring systematic monetary policy
    Review, 2001, 83, (Jul), 113-144 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
62. Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models
    Spanish Economic Review, 2001, 3, (3), 193-209 View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper (1997)

1999

63. Random-Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1999, 17, (3), 382-95 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

Chapters

2020

1. Inflation Globally
   Chapter 08 in Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, 2020, vol. 27, pp 269-316
   See also Working Paper (2019)

2017

2. Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence
   Chapter 14 in International Macroeconomic Interdependence, 2017, pp 387-415
   See also Journal Article in Journal of International Money and Finance (2004)
   Working Paper (2000)

2016

3. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, 2016, pp 213-263 View citations (197)
   See also Working Paper (2016)
   Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2017)

2014

4. Betting the House
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2014, 2014, pp 2-18 View citations (26)
   See also Working Paper (2014)
   Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2015)

2013

5. Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
   A chapter in Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises, 2013 View citations (20)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of the European Economic Association (2016)
   Working Paper (2014)

2010

6. Currency Carry Trades
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, 2010, pp 357-387 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper (2010)
   Journal Article in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (2011)