Details about Oscar Jorda

Homepage:	https://sites.google.com/site/oscarjorda/
Postal address:	UC-Davis: ojorda@ucdavis.edu FRBSF: oscar.jorda@sf.frb.org
Workplace:	Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC) Economics Department, University of California-Davis, (more information at EDIRC) Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Oscar Jorda.

Last updated 2023-12-19. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pjo46

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Working Papers

2024

1. Inference for Local Projections
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
2. Local Projections
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2024)

2023

3. A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (49)
4. A Local Projections Approach to Difference-in-Differences Event Studies
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (53)
5. Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
6. Local Projections for Applied Economics
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (7)
7. Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (16)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2023) View citations (14)
8. Significance Bands for Local Projections
   Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (1)
9. State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
   Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2023) View citations (15)

2022

10. Bank Capital before and after Financial Crises
    Post-Print, HAL
    Also in SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2022)
11. Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2023) View citations (12) (2023)
12. Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (11)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (13)
    Working Papers Series, Institute for New Economic Thinking (2021)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2020) View citations (12)
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2020) View citations (12)
    ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany (2020) View citations (14)
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2022) View citations (19)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy, The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies (2022) View citations (20) (2022)

2021

13. Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (9)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (45)
    SciencePo Working papers Main, HAL (2021) View citations (17)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2017) View citations (40)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (45)
    2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2017) View citations (45)
    See also Journal Article Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2021) View citations (33) (2021)

2020

14. Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (13)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (18)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (17)
15. Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (20)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2020) View citations (16)
    Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2020) View citations (19)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (20)
16. Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (140)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (223)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (222)
    See also Journal Article Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2022) View citations (9) (2022)
17. The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (59)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (78)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (76)
    2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) View citations (6)

2019

18. Inflation Globally
    Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2018)
    See also Chapter Inflation Globally, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile (2020) (2020)
19. Riders on the Storm
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (3)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (9)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Riders on the Storm, FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2019) View citations (3) (2019)
20. The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (6)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2019) View citations (3)

2018

21. Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (12)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (13)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2020) View citations (91) (2020)
22. Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (25)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (26)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2018) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums, IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan (2019) View citations (58) (2019)
23. The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo View citations (4)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2017) View citations (7)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2017) View citations (7)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2017) View citations (26)
    See also Journal Article The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (2019) View citations (133) (2019)

2016

24. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (96)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (98)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2016) View citations (78)
    See also Journal Article Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press (2017) View citations (300) (2017)
    Chapter Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (201) (2016)
25. The Great Mortgaging
    2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (50)

2015

26. Leveraged Bubbles
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (45)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2015) View citations (45)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2015) View citations (45)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2015) View citations (45)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (45)
    See also Journal Article Leveraged bubbles, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (47) (2015)

2014

27. Betting the House
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (29)
    Also in Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2014) View citations (29)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2014) View citations (26)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2014) View citations (8)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article Betting the house, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (159) (2015)
    Chapter Betting the House, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (26) (2014)
28. Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2014) View citations (2) (2014)
29. Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences
    Working Papers Series, Institute for New Economic Thinking View citations (5)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (34)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (35)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2013) View citations (35)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (20)
    See also Chapter Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (22) (2013)
    Journal Article SOVEREIGNS VERSUS BANKS: CREDIT, CRISES, AND CONSEQUENCES, Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association (2016) View citations (113) (2016)
30. The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (47)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (66)
    Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (2014) View citations (65)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (74)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2014) View citations (64)
    See also Journal Article The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles, Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po (2016) View citations (327) (2016)
31. The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy
    SAFE Working Paper Series, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE View citations (5)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (56)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (80)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (59)
    See also Journal Article The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2016) View citations (288) (2016)

2013

32. Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article Assessing the historical role of credit: Business cycles, financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2014) View citations (1) (2014)
33. Okun’s Macroscope: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Productivity and the Comovement between Output and Unemployment
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
34. Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (37)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (38)
    See also Journal Article Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2018) View citations (108) (2018)
35. Shocks and Adjustments
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)
36. When Credit Bites Back
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (612)
    See also Journal Article When Credit Bites Back, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2013) View citations (337) (2013)

2012

37. Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
    See also Journal Article Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2013) View citations (12) (2013)
38. When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (38)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (144)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2011) View citations (157)
    Working Papers Series, Institute for New Economic Thinking (2012) View citations (39)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011) View citations (51)

2011

39. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2011) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011, SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer (2013) View citations (9) (2013)
40. Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (57)

2010

41. A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (5)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2010) View citations (9)
42. Carry Trade
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
43. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Currency Carry Trades, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press (2011) View citations (7) (2011)
    Chapter Currency Carry Trades, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (9) (2010)
44. Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (15)
    Also in Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2010) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2013) View citations (12) (2013)
45. Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (63)
    See also Journal Article Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons, IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan (2011) View citations (462) (2011)
46. The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (8)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article THE HARROD–BALASSA–SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS: REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND THEIR LONG‐RUN EQUILIBRIUM, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (2012) View citations (53) (2012)

2009

47. The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (36)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2009) View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself, Journal of International Economics, Elsevier (2012) View citations (96) (2012)
48. The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics

2008

49. Path Forecast Evaluation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2008) View citations (1)
    Economics Working Papers, European University Institute (2008) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Path forecast evaluation, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2010) View citations (51) (2010)

2007

50. Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada View citations (12)
    Also in Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2007) View citations (9)
51. Inference for Impulse Responses
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (2)
52. Joint Inference and Counterfactual experimentation for Impulse Response Functions by Local Projections
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics

2006

53. Projection Minimum Distance: An Estimator for Dynamic Macroeconomic Models
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (4)

2004

54. Model-Free Impulse Responses
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany
    Also in Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2003)
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2004)

2003

55. A model for the federal funds rate target
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (27)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2000) View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (2002) View citations (156) (2002)
56. IMPROVED TESTING AND SPECIFICATION OF SMOOTH TRANSITION REGRESSION MODELS
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (35)
    DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística (1997) View citations (6)
57. Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2000)
    Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article Measuring systematic monetary policy, Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2001) View citations (16) (2001)
58. Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics
59. Non-Institutional Market Making Behavior: The Dalian Futures Exchange
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
60. RANDOM-TIME AGGREGATION IN PARTIAL AJUSTMENT MODELS
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article Random-Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association (1999) View citations (13) (1999)
61. STOCHASTIC PROCESSES SUBJECT TO TIME SCALE TRANSFORMATIONS: AN APPLICATION TO HIGH-FREQUENCY FX DATA
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University
    Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics
62. The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2002) View citations (35) (2002)
63. The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (1)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2001) View citations (9)
64. The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (18)
    Also in Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2003) View citations (25) (2003)
65. Time-Scale Transformations of Discrete-Time Processes
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article Time‐scale transformations of discrete time processes, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell (2004) View citations (7) (2004)

2001

66. MARKET-MAKING BEHAVIOR IN FUTURES MARKETS
    2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management

2000

67. Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics
    See also Journal Article Measuring monetary policy interdependence, Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier (2004) View citations (13) (2004)
    Chapter Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence, World Scientific Book Chapters, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd. (2017) (2017)

1998

68. Decision Rules for Selecting between Exponential and Logistic STAR
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (3)

1997

69. Testing nonlinearity: decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential star models
    DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models, Spanish Economic Review, Springer (2001) View citations (42) (2001)

Journal Articles

2024

1. International Influences on U.S. Inflation
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2024, 2024, (27), 6
2. When Is Shelter Services Inflation Coming Down?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2024, 2024, (23)

2023

3. Does Monetary Policy Have Long-Run Effects?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2023, 2023, (23), 6
4. Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic
   European Economic Review, 2023, 156, (C) View citations (12)
   See also Working Paper Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic, Working Paper Series (2022) View citations (3) (2022)
5. The Bell Curve of Global CO2 Emission Intensity
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2023, 2023, (27), 6

2022

6. Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022, 104, (1), 166-175 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics, Working Paper Series (2020) View citations (140) (2020)
7. Wage Growth When Inflation Is High
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022, 2022, (25), 6 View citations (3)
8. Why Is U.S. Inflation Higher than in Other Countries?
   FRBSF Economic Letter, 2022, 2022, (07), 06 View citations (5)
9. Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy
   The Review of Financial Studies, 2022, 35, (10), 4561-4586 View citations (20)
   See also Working Paper Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy, Post-Print (2022) View citations (11) (2022)

2021

10. Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2021, 88, (1), 260-286 View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis, Post-Print (2021) View citations (9) (2021)

2020

11. The Fog of Numbers
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020, 2020, (20), 5
12. The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2020, 112, (C), 22-40 View citations (91)
    See also Working Paper Effects of Quasi-Random Monetary Experiments, Working Paper Series (2018) View citations (12) (2018)

2019

13. Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums
    IMF Economic Review, 2019, 67, (1), 109-150 View citations (58)
    See also Working Paper Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums, NBER Working Papers (2018) View citations (25) (2018)
14. Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (8)
15. Riders on the Storm
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper Riders on the Storm, Working Paper Series (2019) View citations (3) (2019)
16. The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019, 2019, (31), 5
17. The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2019, 134, (3), 1225-1298 View citations (133)
    See also Working Paper The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015, CESifo Working Paper Series (2018) View citations (4) (2018)
18. Why Is Inflation Low Globally?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2019 View citations (6)

2018

19. Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2018, 36, (3), 371-387 View citations (108)
    See also Working Paper Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited, NBER Working Papers (2013) View citations (37) (2013)

2017

20. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
    NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2017, 31, (1), 213 - 263 View citations (300)
    See also Working Paper Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts, NBER Working Papers (2016) View citations (96) (2016)
    Chapter Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts, NBER Chapters, 2016, 213-263 (2016) View citations (201) (2016)
21. Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2017

2016

22. Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2016 View citations (2)
23. SOVEREIGNS VERSUS BANKS: CREDIT, CRISES, AND CONSEQUENCES
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2016, 14, (1), 45-79 View citations (113)
    Also in Journal of the European Economic Association, 2016, 14, (1), 45-79 (2016) View citations (109)
    See also Working Paper Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences, Working Papers Series (2014) View citations (5) (2014)
    Chapter Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences, NBER Chapters, 2013 (2013) View citations (22) (2013)
24. The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy
    Economic Journal, 2016, 126, (590), 219-255 View citations (288)
    See also Working Paper The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy, SAFE Working Paper Series (2014) View citations (5) (2014)
25. The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles
    Economic Policy, 2016, 31, (85), 107-152 View citations (327)
    See also Working Paper The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles, Working Paper Series (2014) View citations (47) (2014)

2015

26. Betting the house
    Journal of International Economics, 2015, 96, (S1), S2-S18 View citations (159)
    See also Chapter Betting the House, NBER Chapters, 2014, 2-18 (2014) View citations (26) (2014)
    Working Paper Betting the House, CEPR Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (29) (2014)
27. Interest rates and house prices: pill or poison?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015 View citations (1)
28. Leveraged bubbles
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015, 76, (S), S1-S20 View citations (47)
    See also Working Paper Leveraged Bubbles, 2015 Meeting Papers (2015) View citations (45) (2015)
29. Mortgaging the future?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2015

2014

30. Assessing the historical role of credit: Business cycles, financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (3), 729-740 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Assessing the Historical Role of Credit: Business Cycles, Financial Crises, and the Legacy of Charles S. Peirce, Working Paper Series (2013) (2013)
31. Computing systemic risk using multiple behavioral and keystone networks: The emergence of a crisis in primate societies and banks
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (3), 797-806 View citations (2)
32. Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (19)
33. Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
    National Institute Economic Review, 2014, 228, R58-R64 View citations (2)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2014, 228, (1), R58-R64 (2014) View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, Working Paper Series (2014) View citations (2) (2014)
34. Monetary policy when the spyglass is smudged
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (4)
35. Private credit and public debt in financial crises
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2014 View citations (15)

2013

36. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011
    SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2013, 4, (1), 1-34 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011, Working Paper Series (2011) View citations (6) (2011)
37. Crises before and after the creation of the Fed
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013, (may6) View citations (1)
38. Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 29, (3), 456-468 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper Empirical simultaneous prediction regions for path-forecasts, Working Paper Series (2012) (2012)
    Working Paper Empirical Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Path-Forecasts, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (15) (2010)
39. Labor markets in the global financial crisis
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2013 View citations (2)
40. When Credit Bites Back
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, 45, (s2), 3-28 View citations (337)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013, 45, (s2), 3-28 (2013) View citations (616)
    See also Working Paper When Credit Bites Back, 2013 Meeting Papers (2013) View citations (612) (2013)

2012

41. Credit: a starring role in the downturn
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (apr16)
42. THE HARROD–BALASSA–SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS: REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND THEIR LONG‐RUN EQUILIBRIUM
    International Economic Review, 2012, 53, (2), 609-634 View citations (53)
    See also Working Paper The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-Run Equilibrium, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (8) (2010)
43. The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself
    Journal of International Economics, 2012, 88, (1), 74-90 View citations (96)
    See also Working Paper The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself, CEPR Discussion Papers (2009) View citations (36) (2009)
44. Will the jobless rate drop take a break?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, (dec17) View citations (9)

2011

45. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2011, 7, (1), 357 - 388 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Currency Carry Trades, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (5) (2010)
    Chapter Currency Carry Trades, NBER Chapters, 2010, 357-387 (2010) View citations (9) (2010)
46. ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE BY THE METHOD OF PROJECTION MINIMUM DISTANCE: AN APPLICATION TO THE NEW KEYNESIAN HYBRID PHILLIPS CURVE
    International Economic Review, 2011, 52, (2), 461-487 View citations (17)
47. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (2), 246-77 View citations (222)
48. Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
    IMF Economic Review, 2011, 59, (2), 340-378 View citations (462)
    See also Working Paper Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (63) (2010)
49. Future recession risks: an update
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.14) View citations (1)
50. Variable capital rules in a risky world
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (aug29)

2010

51. Book Review: New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis
    Econometric Reviews, 2010, 29, (2), 243-246
52. Diagnosing recessions
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (feb16)
53. Future recession risks
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (aug9) View citations (2)
54. Path forecast evaluation
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (4), 635-662 View citations (51)
    See also Working Paper Path Forecast Evaluation, CEPR Discussion Papers (2008) View citations (2) (2008)

2009

55. Simultaneous Confidence Regions for Impulse Responses
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2009, 91, (3), 629-647 View citations (26)

2007

56. Do monetary aggregates help forecast inflation?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2007, (apr13) View citations (11)

2005

57. Can monetary policy influence long-term interest rates?
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2005, (may20) View citations (1)
58. Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections
    American Economic Review, 2005, 95, (1), 161-182 View citations (1077)

2004

59. Measuring monetary policy interdependence
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 2004, 23, (5), 761-783 View citations (13)
    See also Chapter Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence, World Scientific Book Chapters, 2017, 387-415 (2017) (2017)
    Working Paper Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence, Working Papers (2000) (2000)
60. The Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2004, 36, (3), 387-405 View citations (63)
61. Time‐scale transformations of discrete time processes
    Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2004, 25, (6), 873-894 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Time-Scale Transformations of Discrete-Time Processes, Working Papers (2003) (2003)

2003

62. MODELING HIGH-FREQUENCY FOREIGN EXCHANGE DATA DYNAMICS
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2003, 7, (4), 618-635 View citations (1)
63. The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2003, 6, (4), 941-962 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Working Papers (2003) View citations (18) (2003)

2002

64. A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target
    Journal of Political Economy, 2002, 110, (5), 1135-1167 View citations (156)
    See also Working Paper A model for the federal funds rate target, Working Papers (2003) (2003)
65. The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data
    Economic Policy Review, 2002, 8, (May), 29-48 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data, Working Papers (2003) (2003)

2001

66. Measuring systematic monetary policy
    Review, 2001, 83, (Jul), 113-144 View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy, Working Papers (2003) (2003)
67. Testing nonlinearity: Decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential STAR models
    Spanish Economic Review, 2001, 3, (3), 193-209 View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper Testing nonlinearity: decision rules for selecting between logistic and exponential star models, DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS (1997) View citations (1) (1997)

1999

68. Random-Time Aggregation in Partial Adjustment Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1999, 17, (3), 382-95 View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper RANDOM-TIME AGGREGATION IN PARTIAL AJUSTMENT MODELS, Working Papers (2003) (2003)

Chapters

2025

1. Comment on "Local Projections or VARs? A Primer for Macroeconomists" 2
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, 2025

2020

2. Inflation Globally
   Chapter 08 in Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, 2020, vol. 27, pp 269-316
   See also Working Paper Inflation Globally, Central Bank of Chile (2019) (2019)

2017

3. Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence
   Chapter 14 in International Macroeconomic Interdependence, 2017, pp 387-415
   See also Working Paper Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics (2000) (2000)
   Journal Article Measuring monetary policy interdependence, Elsevier (2004) View citations (13) (2004)

2016

4. Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, 2016, pp 213-263 View citations (201)
   See also Working Paper Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (96) (2016)
   Journal Article Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts, University of Chicago Press (2017) View citations (300) (2017)

2014

5. Betting the House
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2014, 2014, pp 2-18 View citations (26)
   See also Journal Article Betting the house, Elsevier (2015) View citations (159) (2015)
   Working Paper Betting the House, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (29) (2014)

2013

6. Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences
   A chapter in Sovereign Debt and Financial Crises, 2013 View citations (22)
   See also Journal Article SOVEREIGNS VERSUS BANKS: CREDIT, CRISES, AND CONSEQUENCES, European Economic Association (2016) View citations (113) (2016)
   Working Paper Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences, Institute for New Economic Thinking (2014) View citations (5) (2014)

2010

7. Currency Carry Trades
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, 2010, pp 357-387 View citations (9)
   See also Journal Article Currency Carry Trades, University of Chicago Press (2011) View citations (7) (2011)
   Working Paper Currency Carry Trades, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (5) (2010)