Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts

Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

No 2016-23, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: In advanced economies, a century-long near-stable ratio of credit to GDP gave way to rapid financialization and surging leverage in the last forty years. This ?financial hockey stick? coincides with shifts in foundational macroeconomic relationships beyond the widely-noted return of macroeconomic fragility and crisis risk. Leverage is correlated with central business cycle moments, which we can document thanks to a decade-long international and historical data collection effort. More financialized economies exhibit somewhat less real volatility, but also lower growth, more tail risk, as well as tighter real-real and real-financial correlations. International real and financial cycles also cohere more strongly. The new stylized facts that we discover should prove fertile ground for the development of a new generation of macroeconomic models with a prominent role for financial factors.

JEL-codes: E01 E13 E30 E32 E44 E51 F42 F44 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 57 pages
Date: 2016-10-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mac and nep-opm
Note: Paper presented at the NBER Macroeconomics Annual Conference 2016.
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (78)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts (2017)
Chapter: Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts (2016)
Working Paper: Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts (2016)
Working Paper: Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2016-23

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DOI: 10.24148/wp2016-23

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