Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions

Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, vol. 3, issue 2, 246-77

Abstract: The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail using methods specifically designed to assess classification ability. In the process, we clarify several important features of the business cycle. (JEL C82, E32)

JEL-codes: C82 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.2.246
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (221)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.3.2.246 (application/pdf)
http://www.aeaweb.org/aej/mac/data/2010-0056_data.zip (application/zip)
http://www.aeaweb.org/aej/mac/app/2010-0056_app.pdf (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:246-77

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/subscriptions

Access Statistics for this article

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics is currently edited by Simon Gilchrist

More articles in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics from American Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael P. Albert ().