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Details about Travis John Berge

Workplace:Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Travis John Berge.

Last updated 2023-10-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pbe546


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Working Papers

2021

  1. Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads
    See also Journal Article Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2023) Downloads (2023)
  2. When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases
    LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library Downloads
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2020) Downloads View citations (2)
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2020) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2021) Downloads View citations (3) (2021)

2020

  1. Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (5)

2019

  1. Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (5)
  2. Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2019) Downloads View citations (6) (2019)

2017

  1. Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Understanding survey-based inflation expectations, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2018) Downloads View citations (16) (2018)

2016

  1. Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (1)

2013

  1. Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2015) Downloads View citations (40) (2015)

2012

  1. Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2012) Downloads View citations (7) (2012)

2011

  1. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2011) Downloads View citations (5)

    See also Journal Article A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011, SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer (2013) Downloads View citations (8) (2013)
  2. Forecasting disconnected exchange rates
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2014) Downloads View citations (14) (2014)

2010

  1. A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2010) Downloads View citations (9)
  2. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Chapter Currency Carry Trades, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) Downloads View citations (9) (2010)
    Journal Article Currency Carry Trades, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press (2011) Downloads View citations (6) (2011)

2009

  1. The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics Downloads

Journal Articles

2023

  1. Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 105, (5), 1191-1206 Downloads
    See also Working Paper Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2021) Downloads (2021)

2021

  1. When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases
    European Economic Review, 2021, 138, (C) Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Working Paper When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases, LSE Research Online Documents on Economics (2021) Downloads (2021)

2019

  1. Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 35, (4), 1627-1635 Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) Downloads View citations (4) (2019)

2018

  1. Understanding survey-based inflation expectations
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 34, (4), 788-801 Downloads View citations (16)
    See also Working Paper Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2017) Downloads View citations (4) (2017)

2015

  1. Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle
    Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 34, (6), 455-471 Downloads View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle, Research Working Paper (2013) Downloads View citations (7) (2013)

2014

  1. FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, (5), 713-735 Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting disconnected exchange rates, Research Working Paper (2011) Downloads View citations (1) (2011)
  2. Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?
    Economic Review, 2014, (Q I), 5-31 Downloads View citations (10)
  3. The global impact of U.S. monetary policy
    Macro Bulletin, 2014, 1-2 Downloads View citations (1)

2013

  1. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011
    SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2013, 4, (1), 1-34 Downloads View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011, Working Paper Series (2011) Downloads View citations (5) (2011)

2012

  1. Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?
    Economic Review, 2012, 97, (Q III) Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?, MPRA Paper (2012) Downloads View citations (11) (2012)

2011

  1. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2011, 7, (1), 357 - 388 Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper Currency Carry Trades, NBER Working Papers (2010) Downloads View citations (5) (2010)
    Chapter Currency Carry Trades, NBER Chapters, 2010, 357-387 (2010) Downloads View citations (9) (2010)
  2. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (2), 246-77 Downloads View citations (213)
  3. Future recession risks: an update
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.14) Downloads View citations (1)

2010

  1. Future recession risks
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (aug9) Downloads View citations (2)

Chapters

2010

  1. Currency Carry Trades
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, 2010, pp 357-387 Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Currency Carry Trades, University of Chicago Press (2011) Downloads View citations (6) (2011)
    Working Paper Currency Carry Trades, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) Downloads View citations (5) (2010)
 
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