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Details about Travis John Berge

Workplace:Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Travis John Berge.

Last updated 2019-03-31. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pbe546


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Working Papers

2019

  1. Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) Downloads
  2. Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) Downloads

2017

  1. Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) Downloads View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Forecasting (2018)

2016

  1. Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?
    FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Downloads View citations (1)

2013

  1. Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Forecasting (2015)

2012

  1. Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2012)

2011

  1. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Downloads View citations (4)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2011) Downloads View citations (3)

    See also Journal Article in SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association (2013)
  2. Forecasting disconnected exchange rates
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2014)

2010

  1. A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2010) Downloads View citations (7)
  2. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Chapter (2010)
    Journal Article in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (2011)

2009

  1. The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics Downloads

Journal Articles

2018

  1. Understanding survey-based inflation expectations
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 34, (4), 788-801 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper (2017)

2015

  1. Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle
    Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 34, (6), 455-471 Downloads View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2014

  1. FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, (5), 713-735 Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
  2. Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?
    Economic Review, 2014, (Q I), 5-31 Downloads View citations (4)
  3. The global impact of U.S. monetary policy
    Macro Bulletin, 2014, 1-2 Downloads View citations (1)

2013

  1. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011
    SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2013, 4, (1), 1-34 Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper (2011)

2012

  1. Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?
    Economic Review, 2012, (Q III) Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (2012)

2011

  1. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2011, 7, (1), 357 - 388 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2010)
    Chapter (2010)
  2. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (2), 246-77 Downloads View citations (87)
  3. Future recession risks: an update
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.14) Downloads View citations (1)

2010

  1. Future recession risks
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (aug9) Downloads View citations (2)

Chapters

2010

  1. Currency Carry Trades
    A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, 2010, pp 357-387 Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (2011)
    Working Paper (2010)
 
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