Details about Travis John Berge

Access statistics for papers by Travis John Berge.

Last updated 2023-10-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pbe546

Working Papers

2025

1. Underlying Inflation: An Ensemble Averaging Approach
   FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

2021

2. Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
   See also Journal Article Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (2023) (2023)
3. When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases
   LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library View citations (3)
   Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2020) View citations (2)
   Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2020) View citations (3)
   See also Journal Article When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2021) View citations (5) (2021)

2020

4. Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)

2019

5. Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
6. Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2019) View citations (6) (2019)

2017

7. Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations
   Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Understanding survey-based inflation expectations, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2018) View citations (19) (2018)

2016

8. Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions?
   FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)

2013

9. Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle
   Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2015) View citations (45) (2015)

2012

10. Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2012) View citations (7) (2012)

2011

11. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2011) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011, SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer (2013) View citations (8) (2013)
12. Forecasting disconnected exchange rates
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2014) View citations (15) (2014)

2010

13. A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics View citations (5)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2010) View citations (9)
14. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (5)
    See also Chapter Currency Carry Trades, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (9) (2010)
    Journal Article Currency Carry Trades, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press (2011) View citations (7) (2011)

2009

15. The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions
    Working Papers, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics

Journal Articles

2023

1. Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimate
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2023, 105, (5), 1191-1206
   See also Working Paper Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2021) (2021)

2021

2. When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases
   European Economic Review, 2021, 138, (C) View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases, LSE Research Online Documents on Economics (2021) View citations (3) (2021)

2019

3. Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 35, (4), 1627-1635 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2019) View citations (4) (2019)

2018

4. Understanding survey-based inflation expectations
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2018, 34, (4), 788-801 View citations (19)
   See also Working Paper Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (2017) View citations (4) (2017)

2015

5. Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle
   Journal of Forecasting, 2015, 34, (6), 455-471 View citations (45)
   See also Working Paper Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle, Research Working Paper (2013) View citations (7) (2013)

2014

6. FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, (5), 713-735 View citations (15)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting disconnected exchange rates, Research Working Paper (2011) View citations (1) (2011)
7. Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?
   Economic Review, 2014, (Q I), 5-31 View citations (10)
8. The global impact of U.S. monetary policy
   Macro Bulletin, 2014, 1-2 View citations (1)

2013

9. A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011
   SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2013, 4, (1), 1-34 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011, Working Paper Series (2011) View citations (6) (2011)

2012

10. Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?
    Economic Review, 2012, 97, (Q III) View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?, MPRA Paper (2012) View citations (11) (2012)

2011

11. Currency Carry Trades
    NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 2011, 7, (1), 357 - 388 View citations (7)
    See also Chapter Currency Carry Trades, NBER Chapters, 2010, 357-387 (2010) View citations (9) (2010)
    Working Paper Currency Carry Trades, NBER Working Papers (2010) View citations (5) (2010)
12. Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011, 3, (2), 246-77 View citations (221)
13. Future recession risks: an update
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, (nov.14) View citations (1)

2010

14. Future recession risks
    FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010, (aug9) View citations (2)

Chapters

2010

1. Currency Carry Trades
   A chapter in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, 2010, pp 357-387 View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper Currency Carry Trades, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2010) View citations (5) (2010)
   Journal Article Currency Carry Trades, University of Chicago Press (2011) View citations (7) (2011)