Underlying Inflation: An Ensemble Averaging Approach

Gianni Amisano, Travis Berge and Simon Smith

No 2025-03-25, FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Following the pandemic, inflation has been high and variable. Future inflation likely depends on expected or underlying inflation—the inflation rate that would prevail in the absence of resource slack, supply shocks, and other temporary disturbances to inflation. We introduce a new estimate of underlying inflation, which we produce by averaging many individual estimates from statistical filters and macroeconometric models. We estimate that between 2019 and 2022 underlyling inflation moved up from 1.8 to 2.1 percent and the risks around it increased and became skewed to the upside. Underlying inflation has remained at 2.1 percent since 2022, although risks around it have decreased in magnitude and become balanced.

Date: 2025-03-25
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds- ... proach-20250325.html (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-03-25

DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3756

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in FEDS Notes from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier ().