A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011

Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda

SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 2013, vol. 4, issue 1, 34 pages

Abstract: This paper codifies in a systematic and transparent way a historical chronology of business cycle turning points for Spain reaching back to 1850 at annual frequency, and 1939 at monthly frequency. Such an exercise would be incomplete without assessing the new chronology itself and against others—this we do with modern statistical tools of signal detection theory. We also use these tools to determine which of several existing economic activity indexes provide a better signal on the underlying state of the economy. We conclude by evaluating candidate leading indicators and hence construct recession probability forecasts up to 12 months in the future. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Keywords: Business cycle; Correct classification frontier; Area under the curve; C14; C82; E32; E65 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Working Paper: A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011 (2011)
Working Paper: A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011 (2011)
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DOI: 10.1007/s13209-012-0095-6

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