Future recession risks: an update

Travis Berge, Early Elias and Oscar Jorda

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2011, issue nov.14

Abstract: In 2010, statistical experiments based on components of the Conference Board?s Leading Economic Index showed a significant possibility of a U.S. recession over a 24-month period. Since then, the European sovereign debt crisis has aggravated international threats to the U.S. economy. Moreover, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami demonstrated that the U.S. economy is vulnerable to outside disruptions. Updated forecasts suggest that the probability of a U.S. recession has remained elevated and may have increased over the past year, in part because of foreign financial and economic crises.

Keywords: Recessions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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