Will the jobless rate drop take a break?

Mary Daly, Early Elias, Bart Hobijn and Oscar Jorda

FRBSF Economic Letter, 2012, issue dec17

Abstract: In January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly reduced its projections for medium-term labor force participation. The revision implies that recent participation declines have largely been due to long-term trends rather than business-cycle effects. However, as the economy recovers, some discouraged workers may return to the labor force, boosting participation beyond the Bureau?s forecast. Given current job creation rates, if workers who want a job but are not actively looking join the labor force, the unemployment rate could stop falling in the short term.>

Keywords: Unemployment; Labor market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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