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Global financial cycles and risk premiums

Oscar Jorda (), Moritz Schularick, Alan M. Taylor and Felix Ward

No 12969, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs in the past three decades. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is particularly notable. We demonstrate that fluctuations in risk premiums, and not risk-free rates and dividends, account for a large part of the observed equity price synchronization after 1990. We also show that U.S. monetary policy has come to play an important role as a source of fluctuations in risk appetite across global equity markets. These fluctuations are transmitted across both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes, but the effects are more muted in floating rate regimes.

Keywords: asset prices; equity return premium; financial centers; financial cycles; policy spillovers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E50 F33 F42 F44 G12 N10 N20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
Date: 2018-06
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Working Paper: Global Financial Cycles and Risk Premiums (2018) Downloads
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