CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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21651: Does the Import Invasion Explain the Mysterious Disappearance of Productivity Growth in U.S. Manufacturing?

Robert J. Gordon and Kenneth Ryu

21650: How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy

Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and Alexander W. Richter

21649: Importing Aggregate Demand

Chen Lian, Dmitry Mukhin and Christian Wolf

21648: Refineries, Pipelines and Petroleum Fields - The Impact of Oil on Conflict Around the World

Axel Dreher, Maximilian Herrmann and Jingke Pan

21647: Morals and the political economy of corrective taxes

Felix Bierbrauer, Mattias Polborn, Marten Ritterrath and Weizsäcker, Georg

21646: New Evidence on the Health-Status Gradient from Imperial China

Wolfgang Keller, Carol Shiue and Karen Eggleston

21645: Pension Income and Post-Retirement Labor Supply

Fabian Kindermann, Carla Krolage, Sebastian Kunz, Manuel Pannier and Ströhlein, Karoline

21644: Housing Search and Liquidity in Spatial Equilibrium

Tuuli Vanhapelto and Thierry Magnac

21643: Consumption responses to rising mortgage rates: Unpacking the cash-flow channel of monetary policy

Asger Lau Andersen, Andreas Jakobsen, Rahbek Jørgensen, Mads and Niels Johannesen

21642: Does global financial transparency improve tax compliance in developing countries?

Niels Johannesen, Lauge Larsen and Nadine Riedel

21641: Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education

Jessica Piccolo, Alessia Russo, Eleonora Granziera and Efrem Castelnuovo

21640: Monetary and Fiscal Policy when People Have Finite Lives

Roger Farmer and Pawel Zabczyk

21639: Sanctions, Financial Frictions, and the Organization of Conflict

Nicola Limodio and Lucas Mariani

21638: The Economic Costs of Religious Riots in India

Sriya Iyer, Dmitrii Petrukhin and Anand Shrivastava

21637: Platform-Controlled Search and Distortions in Attention Allocation

Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Ronald Wolthoff

21636: The Geography of Market Power: Firm Location, Spatial Rents, and Their Social Costs

Marleen Marra and Florian Oswald

21635: The Commission Paradox: Evidence from Prison Telecommunications

Marleen Marra, Nathan Miller and Gretchen Sileo

21634: Trapped at Home: Weather Shocks, Income, and International Migration

Azémar, Céline, Rodolphe Desbordes, Markus Eberhardt and Eric Neumayer

21633: U.S. Monetary Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Policy Drivers and Vulnerabilities Matter

Shaghil Ahmed, Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto

21632: Seemingly Anchored Inflation Expectations

Ulrike M. Malmendier and Stefan Nagel

21631: Anchors aweigh? The effect of communicating forecast uncertainty

Michael McMahon, Matthew Naylor, Ryan Rholes and Peter Rickards

21630: Publication Bias and P-Hacking in the Effect of COVID-19 on Learning

Martina Luskova, Nino Buliskeria, Ali Elminejad, Tomas Havranek, Zuzana Irsova, Jurajda, Štěpán and Marek Kapicka

21629: Optimal Inflation Rate: A Meta-Analysis

Matej Opatrny, Martin Opatrny, Tomas Havranek, Zuzana Irsova and Mojmir Hampl

21628: Competitive Tendering for Renewables and Industrial Decarbonisation

Estelle Cantillon and Giancarlo Spagnolo

21627: From Trade War to Green Transition: Optimal Electric Vehicle Tariffs with Revenue-Funded Subsidies

Panle Barwick, Jack Collison, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Shanjun Li and Yucheng Wang

21626: Cost of Capital, Concessional Finance and Adaptation Investment

Karl Naumann-Woleske, Andrea Mazzocchetti and Irene Monasterolo

21625: Transmitting Terror: Radio and Repression in Stalin’s Soviet Union

Sultan Mehmood, Yaroslav Prokhorskoy and Hans-Joachim Voth

21624: More Channels, Lower Scores: Entertainment Television and Student Achievement

Andrea Caria, Daniele Checchi, Dimitri Paolini and Paolo Pinotti

21623: Household Behavior Below the Zero Lower Bound

Asger Lau Andersen, Niels Johannesen, Jens Petersen, Sonja Settele and Johannes Wohlfart

21622: Financial Conditions and Green Innovation

Luca Fornaro, Veronica Guerrieri, Will Hotten and Lucrezia Reichlin

21621: The Targets of Geoeconomic Coercion

Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger

21620: Publish Where It Counts: Publication Choices and Review-Panellist Networks

Moshe Hazan

21619: Information Shocks, Attitudes toward Immigrants, and Hate Crime

Jake Bradley, Facundo Albornoz-Crespo, Silvia Sonderegger, Jesus Rodriguez and Devesh Rustagi

21618: Mergers and the Demand for Protectionism

Felix Montag

21617: Labor Force Participation, Wages and Turbulence

Francesc Obiols-Homs and Sánchez-Marcos, Virginia

21616: Unequal Lives, Unequal Benefits: Life Expectancy and Social Security Rules

Fernández-Blanco, Javier and Sánchez-Marcos, Virginia

21615: Who Wins and Who Loses in Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket

Pat Akey, Grégoire, Vincent, Nicolas Harvie and Charles Martineau

21614: Formal Labor Market Dynamics and Development

Anne Brockmeyer, Francois Gerard, Gabriel Ulyssea, Linda Wu, Marcelo Bergolo, Ceni González, Rodrigo, Benard Kirui, Andrea Lopez-Luzuriaga, Leonardo Fabio Morales, Otero-Cortés, Andrea, Nadine Riedel, Tapia, Matías, Tanisa Tawichsri and Verena Wiedemann

21613: Is Income Inequality on the Rise Everywhere?

Facundo Alvaredo, Francois Bourguignon, Francisco Ferreira, Christoph Lakner and Nora Lustig

21612: Explaining the Atomistic versus Ecological Fallacies in SES-Health Gradients

William Parker and Johannes Spinnewijn

21611: An Early Capital Taxation Principle

Gaetano Bloise and Pietro Reichlin

21610: On the Origins of the Multinational Premium

Fillat, José L. and Stefania Garetto

21609: The Digitalisation of Banking and Social Media: Implications for Deposit Pricing

Michael Brei, Giulio Cornelli, Leonardo Gambacorta and Boris Hofmann

21608: The Superstar Buyer Penalty during Financial Crises: Evidence from Firm-to-Firm Trade Data

Sergi Basco, Ludovic Panon and Enrico Sette

21607: Capacity, Technology Portfolios, and the Paradox of Concentration

Michele Fioretti, Junnan He and Jorge Tamayo

21606: ECB Exchange Rate Communication

Fabio Comazzi, Mar Domenech Palacios, Michael Ehrmann, Massimo Ferrari Minesso and Arnaud Mehl

21605: Limited Means, Limited Care? Healthcare Expenditures of the Financially Constrained in the Netherlands

Mats Frijlink, Minke Remmerswaal, Jan Boone, Lily Davies and Rudy Douven

21604: Disciplining Digital Risk: Evidence from Cyber Stress Tests

Nordine Abidi, Leonardo Gambacorta, Christoffer Kok, Leonardo Madio, Ixart Miquel Flores and Alberto Partida

21603: The Value of Non-Value-Maximizing Managers

Pierre Chaigneau, Alex Edmans and Nicolas Sahuguet

21602: Board Gender Quotas and Female Borrowing: Evidence from Loan-Level Data

Fabrizio Core, Angelo D'Andrea, Tim Eisert and Daniel Urban

21601: Innovation without Borders? The Geography of Technological Diffusion

Ursel Baumann, Cullen, Zöe, Ester Faia, Annalisa Ferrando, Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Judith Rariga

21600: Reconciling Micro Elasticities with the Macro Decline in Labor Supply

Loukas Karabarbounis

21599: Turning Regulation into Data: Digital Trade Restrictiveness Index

Martina F. Ferracane, Erik van der Marel and Marcelo Olarreaga

21598: Merger Control in a Changing World

Volker Nocke, Martin Peitz and Nicolas Schutz

21597: The Value of One Office Day a Month

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Victoria Marino and Özgüzel, Cem

21596: Do Incentives and Organizational Innovations Affect the Performance of Public Administrations? Lessons from the Italian NRRP

Antonio Accetturo, Audinga Baltrunaite, Elena Lazzaro and Anna Laura Mancini

21595: Lack of Trust and Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from a Firm Survey Experiment

Francesco Bianchi, Renato Faccini, Leonardo Melosi and Wehrhöfer, Nils

21594: Automation and Repression

Daron Acemoglu, A. Arda Gitmez and Mehdi Shadmehr

21593: Interdependent Hitting Times

Jaap Abbring and Yifan Yu

21592: Shaking the Traditional Order: Women's Conversion to New Christian Churches in Sub-Saharan Africa

Pablo Alvarez Aragon, Catherine Guirkinger and Jean-Philippe Platteau

21591: The Factor Bias of External Inputs: Implications for Substitution between Capital and Labor

Dimitrije Ruzic

21590: Financial Regulation: Where Do We Stand?

Charles Goodhart and Rosa Lastra

21589: Beyond Exposure: Predicting AI Adoption Based on Comparative Advantage

Ilse Lindenlaub, Ryungha Oh, Maria Alejandra Rodriguez and Laura Veldkamp

21588: Banks’ Dynamic Interest Rate Risk Hedging

Michele Leonardo Bianchi, Dario Ruzzi and Anatoli Segura

21587: The Funding Structure of Direct Lenders

Elisavet Mistopoulou and Sascha Steffen

21586: GDP at Transition Risk

Dirk Schoenmaker and Willem Schramade

21585: Microdata for Research in Macroeconomics and Finance

Nicola Limodio

21584: The Informational Role of Online Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Guy Aridor, Gonçalves, Duarte, Daniel Kluver, Ruoyan Kong and Joseph Konstan

21583: The Future in Today’s Prices: Evidence from a Survey of U.S. Firms

Philippe Andrade, Alexander Dietrich, John Leer, Raphael Schoenle, Zakrajšek, Egon and Jenny Tang

21582: Trends in Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, 1976-2024

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

21581: Distraction and Stock Return Synchronicity: Evidence from the Field

Michael Ehrmann and David-Jan Jansen

21580: Social Anxiety and Evaluative Interviews

Samantha Horn, Peter Schwardmann and Egon Tripodi

21579: Startups in Africa

Emanuele Colonnelli, Marcio Cruz, Pereira-López, Mariana, Tommaso Porzio and Chun Zhao

21578: Optimal Subsidies for Capital Replacement and the Green Transition

Fabio Bertolotti, Andrea Lanteri and Hyeonsik Yoon

21577: The Generative AI Learning Penalty: Evidence from Chinese Secondary Education

Strömberg, David, Victor Lei and Yanhui Wu

21576: Green AI in Industry Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Water Treatment Sector

Mathias Abitbol, Philippe Aghion, Antonin, Céline, Lint Barrage and Benjamin Lengereau

21575: Fool's Gold? How the US Dollar Lost its Shine

Kai Arvai, Nuno Coimbra and Marco Pinchetti

21574: What Happens in Paris, Does Not Stay in Paris: Trade Fairs and Search and Matching Frictions

Békés, Gábor, Matyas Molnar and Claudia Steinwender

21573: The Income Channel to Labor-Market Polarization

Diego Comin, Ana Danieli and Marti Mestieri

21572: The Hidden Cost of Stock Market Concentration: When Funds Hit Regulatory Limits

Pástor, Luboš, Taisiya Sikorskaya and Jinrui Wang

21571: Measuring the AI Economy

Anton Korinek and Patrick McKelvey

21570: Central Bank Independence and Risk-Taking at the Zero Lower Bound

Bernhard Bartels, Barry Eichengreen, Julian Schumacher and Beatrice Weder di Mauro

21569: Off the Labor Supply Curve: The Zero Employer Size Wage Effect Within Large Firms

Andre Diegmann, Müller, Steffen and Benjamin Schoefer

21568: Do Female Leaders Reduce Corruption? New Evidence from Brazil

Julieta Peveri and Clemence Tricaud

21567: Climate Change in the Classroom

Stefano Carattini, Pamela Giustinelli and Marcella Veronesi

21566: Learning From False Stories

Robin Musolff, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann

21565: The Dark Side of Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: A SAGE Study of Asian High-Income Countries

Fernanda Ortega and Dennis Snower

21564: Coalition-Based Digital Governance in the Era of AI

Dennis Snower and Paul Twomey

21563: Do Voters Punish Inflation or Pay Cuts? Inflation and Real Wages in U.S. Elections

Riaño, Juan Felipe and Francesco Trebbi

21562: The Republic of Letters and the Rise of the West

Andrea Melillo, Luigi Pascali, Mounu Prem and Francesca Asja Trento

21561: Mapping Economic Opportunities in Global Clean Energy Supply Chains

Yang Li, Ketan Ahuja, Karan Daryanani, Ricardo Hausmann and Yıldırım, Muhammed A.

21560: Falling Dominoes? The Impact of the US Exit from Free Trade on the Sustainability of Trade Cooperation

Barthelemy Bonadio, Andrei Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

21559: Do Markets Deliver? Competition and Choice in European Healthcare Markets

Carol Propper

21558: Intergenerational Transmission of Victimization

Sonia Bhalotra, Meltem Daysal, Jensen, Mathias Fjællegaard, Jørgensen, Thomas H. and Montpetit, Sébastien

21557: Intergenerational Mobility by Sexuality

Fane Groes, Jensen, Mathias Fjællegaard and Thomsen, Morten Kjær

21556: States as Financiers: International Lending in War and Peace

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

21555: Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

Teresa Fort, Nathan Goldschlag, Jack Liang, Peter Schott and Nikolas Zolas

21554: Macro Theory with Measured Expectations

Ralph Luetticke, Christopher Roth, Mirko Wiederholt and Johannes Wohlfart

21553: Averting Mortality, Enabling Mobility: Health and Economic Impacts of HIV Treatment at Scale

Huan Wang, Victoria Baranov, Sarah Dickerson and Jeremy Barofsky

21552: Speed, Accuracy, and Complexity

Gonçalves, Duarte