CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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9611: Monetary policy risk: Rules vs. discretion

David Backus, Stanley Zin, Mikhail Chernov and Irina Zviadadze

9610: Risk-Adjusting the Returns to Venture Capital

Stefan Nagel and Arthur Korteweg

9609: A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment

Emmanuel Saez and Pascal Michaillat

9608: Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle

Xavier Ragot and Edouard Challe

9607: First Impressions Matter: Signalling as a Source of Policy Dynamics

Michael McMahon and Stephen Hansen

9606: Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union

Harald Uhlig

9605: Does Violent Crime Deter Physical Activity?

Carol Propper, Michael Shields and Katharina Janke

9604: Do we go shopping downtown or in the `burbs? Why not both?

Jacques Thisse, Igor Sloev and Philip Ushchev

9603: Outsourcing, Offshoring and Innovation: Evidence from Firm-level Data for Emerging Economies

Görg, Holger and Ursula Fritsch

9602: Estimating the preferences of central bankers: an analysis of four voting records

Sylvester Eijffinger, Ronald Mahieu and Louis Raes

9601: Noisy News in Business cycles

Marco Lippi, Mario Forni, Luca Sala and Luca Gambetti

9600: Migration and Tax Competition Within a Union

Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka

9599: Export market exit, financial pressure and the crisis

Görg, Holger and Marina-Eliza Spaliara

9598: Creativity, cities and innovation

Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés and Neil Lee

9597: Finance, Growth and Fragility: The Role of Government

Thorsten Beck

9596: Dynamic Aid Allocation

Jonathan Temple, Fabien Postel-Vinay and Patrick Carter

9595: Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party in Weimar Germany: 1919-33

Hans-Joachim Voth, Voigtländer, Nico and Shanker Satyanath

9594: State Incentives for Innovation, Star Scientists and Jobs: Evidence from Biotech

Enrico Moretti and Daniel Wilson

9593: Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies, and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authorit

Enrico Moretti and Patrick Kline

9592: Accession to the World Trade Organization and Tariff Evasion

Beata Javorcik and Gaia Narciso

9590: The growth of cities

Gilles Duranton and Diego Puga

9589: Time Varying Risk Aversion

Luigi Guiso, Luigi Zingales and Paola Sapienza

9588: Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries, 1700-2010

Thomas Piketty and Gabriel Zucman

9587: Private, social and self-insurance for long-term care in the presence of family help: A political economy analysis

Pierre Pestieau and Philippe De Donder

9586: Evaluating the law of one price using micro panel data

Laurent Gobillon, François-Charles Wolff and Patrice Guillotreau

9585: Acquisitions, Entry, and Innovation in Network Industries

Lars Persson, Norbäck, Pehr-Johan and Tåg, Joacim

9584: The Buyer Margins of Firms' Exports

Gianmarco Ottaviano, Christian Volpe Martincus and Jeronimo Carballo

9583: Residual-based Rank Specification Tests for AR-GARCH type models

Bas J M Werker and Elena Andreou

9582: Distributional Impact of Commodity Price Shocks: Australia over a Century

Jeffrey G. Williamson and Sambit Bhattacharyya

9581: Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone

Harald Hau and Sandy Lai

9580: The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by-date

Roger Farmer

9579: Tariffs, Trade and Productivity: A Quantitative Evaluation of Heterogeneous Firm Models

Cuñat, Alejandro and Holger Breinlich

9578: Group Lending Without Joint Liability

Maitreesh Ghatak, Thiemo Fetzer and Jonathan de Quidt

9577: The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy

Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Christoph Trebesch and Mitu Gulati

9576: Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-of-Sample than VAR Models?

Barbara Rossi, Gürkaynak, Refet and Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin

9575: Exchange Rate Predictability

Barbara Rossi

9574: The effect of firms' partial retirement policies on the labour market outcomes of their employees

Michael Lechner, Conny Wunsch and Martin Huber

9573: From Green Users to Green Voters

Diego Comin and Johannes Rode

9572: Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis

Lutz Kilian, Christiane Baumeister and Xiaoqing Zhou

9571: Building Reputation for Contract Renewal: Implications for Performance Dynamics and Contract Duration

Patrick Rey and Elisabetta Iossa

9570: Nonparametric Predictive Regression

Elena Andreou, Ioannis Kasparis and Peter Phillips

9569: Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach

Lutz Kilian and Christiane Baumeister

9568: Regional Growth and Regional Decline

Gianmarco Ottaviano, Jonathan Temple and Holger Breinlich

9566: External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects

Helene Rey and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

9565: The Effect of College Employment on Graduation: Evidence from France

Fougère, Denis, Magali Beffy and Arnaud Maurel

9564: What are we learning from business training and entrepreneurship evaluations around the developing world?

Christopher Woodruff and David McKenzie

9563: On Keeping Your Powder Dry: Fiscal Foundations of Financial and Price Stability

Maurice Obstfeld

9562: Credibility For Sale

Harris Dellas and ,

9561: Social Protection, Poverty and the Post-2015 Agenda

Ravi Kanbur, Ruslan Yemtsov and Ariel Fiszbein

9560: Herding cats? Management and university performance

Carol Propper, Sarah Smith and John McCormack

9559: Contracting With Synergies

Itay Goldstein, Alex Edmans and John Zhu

9558: Commodity and Equity Markets: Some Stylized Facts from a Copula Approach

Claude Lopez and Anne-Laure Delatte

9557: Does economic globalization a ffect regional inequality? A cross-country analysis

Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés and Roberto Ezcurra

9556: Providing financial education: a general equilibrium approach

Mario Padula and Yuri Pettinicchi

9555: Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty

Kym Anderson, Will Martin and Maros Ivanic

9554: The Time WTO Panels Require to Issue Reports

Henrik Horn

9553: Competing for Consumer Inattention

Kfir Eliaz, Geoffroy de Clippel and Kareen Rozen

9552: Hidden Action or Hidden Information? How Information Gathering Shapes Contract Design

David Martimort and Elisabetta Iossa

9551: Recoveries

Fatás, Antonio and Ilian Mihov

9550: Firm Entry Deregulation, Competition and Returns to Education and Skill

L. Winters, Ana Fernandes and Priscila Ferreira

9549: Volatility Risk Premia and Exchange Rate Predictability

Lucio Sarno and Pasquale Della Corte

9548: Trust, Growth and Well-Being: New Evidence and Policy Implications

Pierre Cahuc and Yann Algan

9547: Men Vote in Mars, Women Vote in Venus: A Survey Experiment in the Field

Vincenzo Galasso and Tommaso Nannicini

9546: Supranational Supervision - How Much and for Whom?

Wolf Wagner and Thorsten Beck

9545: Exclusive contracts and market dominance

Giacomo Calzolari and Vincenzo Denicolo'

9544: Tailored Bayesian Mechanisms: Experimental Evidence from Two-Stage Voting Games

Grüner, Hans Peter and Dirk Engelmann

9543: Accomplice-Witness and Organized Crime: Theory and Evidence from Italy

Patrick Rey, Giovanni Immordino, Salvatore Piccolo and Antonio Acconcia

9542: The Caloric Costs of Culture: Evidence from Indian Migrants

David Atkin

9541: Debt Crises and Risk Sharing: The Role of Markets versus Sovereigns

Sørensen, Bent E, Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem and Emiliano Luttini

9540: Non-cognitive skill formation in poor neighbourhoods of urban India

Pramila Krishnan and Sonya Krutikova

9539: Neighbours and Extension Agents in Ethiopia: Who matters more for technology diffusion?

Pramila Krishnan and Manasa Patnam

9538: Eurozone Sovereign Yield Spreads and Diverging Economic Fundamentals

Alessandro Beber, Michael Brandt and Maurizio Luisi

9537: Liquidity and Inefficient Investment

Oliver Hart and Luigi Zingales

9536: Quantifying the Coordinated Effects of Partial Horizontal Acquisitions

Helder Vasconcelos, Duarte Brito and Ricardo Ribeiro

9535: Stock Liquidity and Corporate Cash Holdings

Kjell Nyborg and Zexi Wang

9534: Does quality affect patients? choice of doctor? Evidence from the UK

Hugh S Gravelle, Carol Propper and Rita Santos

9533: Corporate Social Responsibility and Firm Risk: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Koskinen, Yrjö, Rui Albuquerque and Chendi Zhang

9532: Noise Bubbles

Marco Lippi, Mario Forni, Luca Sala and Luca Gambetti

9531: The Value of Relationships: Evidence from a Supply Shock to Kenyan Rose Exports

Rocco Macchiavello and Ameet Morjaria

9530: Consumption, Income Changes and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Two Fiscal Stimulus Programmes

Paolo Surico and Kanishka Misra

9529: Cooperation in WTO's Tariff Waters

Marcelo Olarreaga, Alessandro Nicita and Peri Silva

9528: Economic Cycles and Expected Stock Returns

Alessandro Beber, Michael Brandt and Maurizio Luisi

9527: The origins of the German current account surplus: Unbalanced productivity growth and structural change

Wörgötter, Andreas, Fabrizio Coricelli and Farshad R Ravasan

9526: Dynamic Countervailing Power under Public and Private Monitoring

V Bhaskar

9525: Structural or Cyclical? Unemployment in Latvia Since the 2008-09 Financial Crisis

Alfred Vanags, Konstantin Sonin, Daria Anosova and Anna Zasova

9524: The Dynamic Properties of Financial-Market Equilibrium with Trading Fees

Bernard Dumas and Adrian Buss

9523: Complementary Roles of Connections and Performance in Political Selection in China

Masayuki Kudamatsu, Ruixue Jia and David Seim

9522: Organizations, Diffused Pivotality and Immoral Outcomes

Armin Falk and Nora Szech

9521: How the Euro Crisis Evolved and How to Avoid Another: EMU, Fiscal Policy and Credit Ratings

Michael Wickens and Vito Polito

9520: How Do Politicians Save? Buffer Stock Management of Unemployment Insurance Finance

Sørensen, Bent E, Steven Craig, Wided Hemissi and Satadru Mukherjee

9519: Informal or Formal Financing? Or Both? First Evidence on the Co-Funding of Chinese Firms

Hans Degryse, Steven Ongena and Liping Lu

9518: The Distortive Effects of Antitrust Fines Based on Revenue

Yannis Katsoulacos, Giancarlo Spagnolo and Vasiliki Bageri

9517: Man-bites-dog Business Cycles

Kristoffer Nimark

9516: Culture, Entrepreneurship, and Growth

Fabrizio Zilibotti and Matthias Doepke

9515: The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth: the English Corn Returns as a data source in economic history, 1770-1914

Edmund Cannon and Liam Brunt

9514: Centralization and Accountability: Theory and Evidence from the Clean Air Act

Giacomo Ponzetto, Federico Boffa and Amedeo Piolatto

9513: Who Chooses Which Private Education? Theory and International Evidence

Giuseppe Bertola and Daniele Checchi

9512: A Rating Agency for Europe ? A good idea?

Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Bernhard Bartels

9511: Aggregate Oligopoly Games with Entry

Simon Anderson, Daniel Piccinin and Nisvan Erkal

9510: Do Sellers Offer Menus of Contracts to Separate Buyer Types? An Experimental Test of Adverse Selection Theory

Patrick Schmitz and Eva Hoppe