CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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15966: The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending

Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny and Michael Weber

15965: Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino and Elmar Mertens

15964: Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility

Andrea Carriero, Todd Clark, Massimiliano Marcellino and Elmar Mertens

15963: Africa’s Latent Assets

James A. Robinson and Soeren Henn

15962: From Mancession to Shecession: Women's Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions

Sena Coskun, Matthias Doepke, David Koll and Michele Tertilt

15961: Using machine learning and qualitative interviews to design a five-question women's agency index

Seema Jayachandran, Monica Biradavolu and Jan Cooper

15960: Enforcement of Labor Regulation and the Labor Market Effects of Trade: Evidence from Brazil

Vladimir Ponczek and Gabriel Ulyssea

15959: Commodity Prices and Banking Crises

Markus Eberhardt and Andrea Presbitero

15958: One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles

Eric Monnet and Damien Puy

15957: The Impact of Gender Role Norms on Mothers’ Labor Supply

Danilo Cavapozzi, Marco Francesconi and Cheti Nicoletti

15956: Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020

David Jacks and Martin Stuermer

15955: OLS Estimation of the Intra-Household Distribution of Expenditure

Lechene, Valérie, Krishna Pendakur and Alexander Wolf

15954: Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?

Robert Hall and Marianna Kudlyak

15953: Make Yourselves Scarce: The Effect of Demographic Change on the Relative Wages and Employment Rates of Experienced Workers

Michael Boehm and Christian Siegel

15952: The Smoot-Hawley Trade War

Kris Mitchener, Kirsten Wandschneider and Kevin O'Rourke

15951: Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs

Jonas Arias, Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco and Minchul Shin

15949: Reducing Parent-School Information Gaps and Improving Education Outcomes: Evidence from High-Frequency Text Messages

Samuel Berlinski, Matias Busso, Taryn Dinkelman and Claudia Martinez A.

15948: Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Xiaoxi Liu and Ilhyock Shim

15947: Inflation and Individual Investors’ Behavior: Evidence from the German Hyperinflation

Fabio Braggion, Felix von Meyerinck and Nic Schaub

15946: Institutional Investors and Infrastructure Investing

Aleksandar Andonov, Kräussl, Roman and Joshua Rauh

15945: Sustainability or Performance? Ratings and Fund Managers’ Incentives

Nickolay Gantchev, Mariassunta Giannetti and Rachel Li

15944: Asymmetries in Monetary Policy

Pierpaolo Benigno and Lorenza Rossi

15943: Estimating General Equilibrium Spillovers of Large-Scale Shocks

Kilian Huber

15942: The Rise of Agribusinesses and its Distributional Consequences

Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro

15941: Smart Cap

Christian Traeger and Larry Karp

15940: Public debt and the political economy of reforms

Pierre Boyer, Christoph Esslinger and Brian Roberson

15939: When to Lock, Not Whom: Managing Epidemics Using Time-Based Restrictions

Yinon Bar-On, Tatiana Baron, Ron Milo and Eran Yashiv

15938: Reconciliation Narratives: The Birth of a Nation after the US Civil War

Elena Esposito, Alessandro Saia and Mathias Thoenig

15937: The Effects of Child Tax Benefits on Poverty and Labor Supply: Evidence from the Canada Child Benefit and Universal Child Care Benefit

Michael Baker, Derek Messacar and Mark Stabile

15936: Accounting for the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting

Stephen Broadberry

15935: Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward

Kris Mitchener and Christoph Trebesch

15934: Information and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy

Tobias Broer, Alexandre Kohlhas, Kurt Mitman and Kathrin Schlafmann

15933: Diversity in Schools: Immigrants and the Educational Performance of U.S. Born Students

David Figlio, Paola Giuliano, Riccardo Marchingiglio, Umut Ozek and Paola Sapienza

15932: The Voice of Monetary Policy

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Tho Pham and Oleksandr Talavera

15931: Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Luis Brandao-Marques, R. Gaston Gelos, Thomas Harjes, Ratna Sahay and Yi Xue

15930: Financing Costs and Development

Tiago Cavalcanti, Joseph Kaboski, Bruno Martins and Cezar Santos

15929: The Costs of Populism for the Bureaucracy and Government Performance

Luca Bellodi, Massimo Morelli and Matia Vannoni

15928: Taxes and Turnout: When the decisive voter stays at home

Felix Bierbrauer, Aleh Tsyvinski and Nicolas Werquin

15927: Welfare Effects of Property Taxation

Löffler, Max and Sebastian Siegloch

15926: Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: Secular Trends, Large Shocks and New Data

Antolín-Díaz, Juan, Thomas Drechsel and Ivan Petrella

15925: Sharing the Pie: An Analysis of Undernutrition and Individual Consumption in Bangladesh

Caitlin Brown, Rossella Calvi and Jacob Penglase

15924: The More the Poorer? Resource Sharing and Scale Economies in Large Families

Rossella Calvi, Jacob Penglase, Denni Tommasi and Alexander Wolf

15923: SVARs With Occasionally-Binding Constraints

S. Boragan Aruoba, Marko Mlikota, Frank Schorfheide and Sergio Villalvazo

15922: Historical gender discrimination does not explain comparative Western European development: evidence from Portugal, 1300-1900

Nuno Palma, Jaime Brown Reis and Lisbeth Rodrigues

15921: The Lock-in Effects of Part-time Unemployment Benefits

Benghalem, Hélène, Pierre Cahuc and Pierre Villedieu

15920: On Immigration and Native Entrepreneurship

Harriet Orcutt Duleep, David Jaeger and Peter McHenry

15919: The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle

Christian Gollier

15918: Less is More: Consumer Spending and the Size of Economic Stimulus Payments

Michele Andreolli and Paolo Surico

15917: Conditional Rotation Between Forecasting Models

Yinchu Zhu and Allan Timmermann

15916: Closing the Gender Profit Gap

Catia Batista, Sandra Sequeira and Pedro Vicente

15915: Forecasting the U.S. Dollar in the 21st Century

Charles Engel and Steve Pak Yeung Wu

15914: International Co-movements of Inflation, 1851-1913

Stefan Gerlach and Rebecca Stuart

15913: Fearless Woman: Financial Literacy and Stock Market Participation

Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Rob Alessie, Annamaria Lusardi and Maarten van Rooij

15912: Growing Like Germany: Local Public Debt, Local Banks, Low Private Investment

Iryna Stewen, Mathias Hoffmann and Michael Stiefel

15911: A Soul's View of the Optimal Population Problem

David de la Croix and Matthias Doepke

15910: Big Push in Distorted Economies

Francisco Buera, Hugo Hopenhayn, Yongseok Shin and Nicholas Trachter

15909: Unequal Jury Representation and Its Consequences

Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer and Randi Hjalmarsson

15908: Global Value Chains

Pol Antràs and Davin Chor

15907: Are Political and Charitable Giving Substitutes? Evidence from the United States

Pinar Yildirim, Andrei Simonov, Maria Petrova and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

15906: Trade Liberalization and the Extensive Margin of Differentiated Goods: Evidence from China

Johannes Van Biesebroeck, Yingting Yi and Elena Zaurino

15905: To be connected or not to be connected? The role of long-haul economies

Hans Koster and Jacques Thisse

15904: Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparing Alternative Value Frameworks

Maddalena Ferranna, Jp Sevilla and David Bloom

15903: Contacts, Altruism and Competing Externalities

Flavio Toxvaerd

15902: Migration and Redistribution: Federal Governance of an Economic Union Matters

Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka

15901: Why did bank stocks crash during COVID-19?

Viral Acharya, Robert Engle, Maximilian Jager and Sascha Steffen

15900: “Long GFC†? The Global Financial Crisis, Health Care, and COVID-19 Deaths

Moreno Ibáñez, Antonio, Steven Ongena, Alexia Ventula Veghazy and Alexander Wagner

15899: Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime

Steffen Andersen, Gianpaolo Parise and Kim Peijnenburg

15898: World Management Survey at 18: lessons and the way forward

Daniela Scur, Raffaella Sadun, John van Reenen, Renata Lemos and Nicholas Bloom

15897: Rules of Origin and Market Power

Wanyu Chung and Carlo Perroni

15896: Government Policies in a Granular Global Economy

Cecile Gaubert, Oleg Itskhoki and Maximilian Vogler

15895: Do macroprudential policies affect non-bank financial intermediation?

Stijn Claessens, Giulio Cornelli, Leonardo Gambacorta, Francesco Manaresi and Yasushi Shiina

15894: The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty

Beliansk Anna, Aurélien Eyquem and Céline Poilly

15893: Do Looks Matter for an Academic Career in Economics?

Galina Hale, Tali Regev and Yona Rubinstein

15892: Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants

Davide Furceri, Michael Ganslmeier, Jonathan Ostry and Naihan Yang

15891: Corruption under Austerity

Gianmarco Daniele and Tommaso Giommoni

15890: Good connections: bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exports

Antoine Berthou, Thierry Mayer and Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier

15889: Capital and Economic Growth in Britain, 1270-1870: Preliminary Findings

Stephen Broadberry and Alexandra de Pleijt

15888: Gender and Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments

Alison Booth and Patrick Nolen

15887: Average income, income inequality and export unit values

Hélène Latzer and Florian Mayneris

15886: Managerial and Financial Barriers to the Green Transition

Ralph De Haas, Ralf Martin, Mirabelle Muûls and Helena Schweiger

15885: Corporate resiliency and the choice between financial and operational hedging

Viral Acharya, Heitor Almeida, Yakov Amihud and Ping Liu

15884: Contingent Contracts in Banking: Insurance or Risk Magnification?

Hans Gersbach

15883: How do private equity fees vary across public pensions?

Juliane Begenau and Emil N Siriwardane

15882: A Model of QE, Reserve Demand and the Money Multiplier

Ellen Ryan and Karl Whelan

15881: Downside and Upside Uncertainty Shocks

Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti and Luca Sala

15880: Artificial intelligence and Pricing: The Impact of Algorithm Design

John Asker, Chaim Fershtman and Ariel Pakes

15879: Do Business-Friendly Reforms Boost GDP?

Tamanna Adhikari and Karl Whelan

15878: Local Global Watchdogs: Trade, Sourcing and the Internationalization of Social Activism

Pamina Koenig, Sebastian Krautheim, Löhnert, Claudius and Thierry Verdier

15877: Social Position and Fairness Views on Inequality

Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg, Claus Kreiner and Stefanie Stantcheva

15876: The Fetters of the Sib - An Experimental Study in Burkina Faso

Björn Vollan, Myriam Hadnes, Marco Nilgen and Michael Kosfeld

15875: Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market

Møller, Stig, Thomas Pedersen, Schütte, Erik Christian Montes and Allan Timmermann

15874: Voice at Work

Jarkko Harju, Jäger, Simon and Benjamin Schoefer

15873: Centralized Matching with Incomplete Information

Marcelo Ariel Fernandez, Kirill Rudov and Leeat Yariv

15872: A Reconsideration of the Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity for the U.S. Dollar

Charles Engel, Ekaterina Kazakova, Mengqi Wang and Nan Xiang

15871: Social capital and economic growth in the regions of Europe

Jonathan Muringani, Rune Fitjar and Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés

15870: Institutions and the Productivity Challenge for European Regions

Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés and Roberto Ganau

15869: Are Banks Catching Corona? Effects of COVID on Lending in the U.S

Thorsten Beck and Jan Keil

15868: When distance drives destination, towns can stimulate development

Joachim De Weerdt, Luc Christiaensen and Ravi Kanbur

15867: Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?

Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Massimiliano Marcellino and Dalibor Stevanovic

15866: The Expectations Channel of Climate Change: Implications for Monetary Policy

Alexander Dietrich, Müller, Gernot and Raphael Schoenle