CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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21551: You Only Weave Twice. Espionage And Industrialization in 18th Century France

Bruno Caprettini

21550: The Rise of the Knowledge Economy

Matteo Cervellati, Sara Lazzaroni, Gianni Marciante and Paolo Masella

21549: Explaining Divergence in Ocean Freight Rates and Passenger Fares, 1863-1913

Tim Hatton

21548: Fighting for Growth: Labor Scarcity and Technological Progress During the British Industrial Revolution

Hans-Joachim Voth, Bruno Caprettini and Alex Trew

21547: Trading Places: How Trade Policy Is Reshaping Multinational Firms' Location

Alejandro Graziano, Monika Sztajerowska and Christian Volpe Martincus

21546: The Fragility of the Global Trading System

Stephan Maurer, Luke Milsom and Ferdinand Rauch

21545: Determinants of Spreads on European Supranational Debt: Towards a Genuine European Safe Asset?

Kalin Anev Janse, Roel Beetsma and Andy Li

21544: Goodbye, Montesquieu: Executive Spillovers in Judicial Elections

Nicola Fontana, Tommaso Nannicini and James Snyder

21543: Growing Together and Apart: Scale Economies and Labor Specialization in Global Value Chains

Björn Arnarson, Magnus Tolum Buus, Andreas Moxnes, Jakob Roland Munch and Chong Xiang

21542: Endogenous Fiscal Dominance: Expectations, Political Shocks and Sovereign Risk

Paul De Grauwe and Pasquale Foresti

21541: The Labor Market Effects of Regulating Platform Work: Evidence from Chile

Omar Bamieh, Juan Dolado, Alvaro Janez and Felix Wellschmied

21540: The Importance of Unlikely Events

Maya Eden, Larry Samuelson and Jakub Steiner

21539: Intermediate Input Substitutability

Alessandra Peter and Cian Ruane

21538: Mind the Stance Gap: State-Dependent Filtering in the Federal Reserve Communications

Alev Atak and Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin

21537: Supply Chain Uncertainty, Energy Prices and Inflation

Alfonso Merendino and Tommaso Monacelli

21536: The Anatomy of Emerging-Market Business Cycles: Global Financial Shocks and Supply-Like Transmission

Luca Gambetti, Ivan Petrella, Alessandro Pollastri and Emiliano Santoro

21535: Slice to Protect

Peter Eppinger, Bohdan Kukharskyy, Alireza Naghavi and Gianmarco Ottaviano

21534: Is Cheaper Democracy Better? The Odd-Electorate Paradox

Hans Gersbach, Egor Kravchenko and Cesar Martinelli

21533: Incomplete Markets and International Risk-Sharing

Ester Faia and Ekaterina Shabalina

21532: From People’s War to People’s Rule: Rebel Governance and the Foundations of Inclusive Democracy

Bhishma Bhusal, Michael Callen, Rohini Pande, Soledad Prillaman, Deepak Singhania and Apurva Subedi

21531: Can Digital Aid Deliver During Humanitarian Crises?

Michael Callen, Fajardo-Steinhäuser, Miguel, Michael Findley and Tarek Ghani

21530: Two-Sided Market Power in Firm-to-Firm Trade

Vanessa Alviarez, Michele Fioretti, Ken Kikkawa and Monica Morlacco

21529: Mergers, Innovation Efficiencies, and the Investment Channel

Matias Pietola, Emanuele Tarantino and Hans Zenger

21528: Patterns and Determinants of Global Cryptocurrency Flows

Christian Friedrich and Laura Zhao

21527: Industrial Clusters in the Long Run: Evidence from Million-Rouble Plants in China

Stephan Heblich, Marlon Seror, Hao Xu and Yanos Zylberberg

21526: Who Trades Index Rebalancings? Evidence on Benchmarking and Inelastic Demand

Mariana Escobar, Lorenzo Pandolfi, Alvaro Pedraza and Tomas Williams

21525: The Missing Value of Data

Ankit Bhutani, Ordoñez, Guillermo and Laura Veldkamp

21524: Trade Restrictions, Trade Policy Uncertainty and FDI Flows

Hites Ahir, Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Francesco Frangiamore, Jonathan Ostry and Francesco Scianna

21523: Tax News and Intertemporal Substitution

Martin Blomhoff Holm, Rustam Jamilov, Marek Jasinski and Plamen Nenov

21522: The Price of Protection: Tariff Incidence and Import Collapse under the Infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff

Kris Mitchener and Mathieu Pedemonte

21521: Management of Health Care Facilities and Patient Attendance During Major Disruptions: Evidence from Kenya

Kathryn Andrews, Fabiano Dal-Ri, Roberta Gatti, Renata Lemos, Mario Macis and Lydia Nakhone

21520: Beyond the Core: Stock-Market Development and Performance in the Middle East, 1872–1914

Ali Coskun Tuncer

21519: The Heterogeneous Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy

Jorge Abad, Saki Bigio, Salomon Garcia-Villegas, Marbet, Joël and Nuño, Galo

21518: How Should Central Banks Respond to Commodity Price Shocks? Optimal Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks for Commodity-Expos

Thomas Drechsel, Silvana Tenreyro, Michael McLeay and Enrico Duilio Turri

21517: When Do Markets Work? Multiplex Networks and Efficiency

Chengqing Li, Yves Zenou and Junjie Zhou

21516: Indirect Estimators of Intergenerational Mobility

Andrea Del Pizzo, Martin Nybom and Jan Stuhler

21515: Distribution Costs

Alessandra Peter and Cian Ruane

21514: Believing and Practicing: How Religion Shapes Human Capital and Growth

Sebastiano Della Lena, Yasuhiro Sato and Yves Zenou

21513: The Design and Business Models of Financial Ratings

Pierre Chaigneau and Nicolas Sahuguet

21512: Digital Ownership: The Tokenization of Real-World Assets

Gilles Chemla and Katrin Tinn

21511: Banking under Conflict: Managers and Organizational Design

Nicola Limodio, Luca Picariello and Tom Schwantje

21510: Resource Windfalls, Public Expenditure and Local Economies

Antonella Bancalari and Juan Pablo Rud

21509: Defense Spending, Cost of Living, and the Optimal Exchange Rate Regime during Wartime in Ukraine

Oliver de Groot and Yevhenii Skok

21508: Empowering Adolescent Girls: Does it take a Village?

Alison Andrew, Sonya Krutikova, Gabriela Smarrelli and Hemlata Verma

21507: Strategic Investment in Supply Chain Resilience under Geopolitical Interference: Theory and Policy Implications

Thomas Gehrig and Rune Stenbacka

21506: Skills, Not Scale: GenAI and Technology Adoption

Nuriye Melisa Bilgin and Gianmarco Ottaviano

21505: AI Sycophancy and Decisions

John Conlon and Peter Schwardmann

21504: Unpacking Public Opposition to Meat Taxes: A Survey-Experiment in California

Thomas Douenne, Natalie Lee and Nicolas Treich

21503: Accounting for the Reversal of Fortune: Spain and Britain, 1501-1800

Leandro Prados de la Escosura

21502: The Impact and Incidence of Supplemental Health Insurance: Evidence from Sweden

Palme, Mårten, David Seim, Johannes Spinnewijn and Wikström, Jens

21501: Bond Yield Responses to Macro News: The Role of Macro Forecast Disagreement and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Hördahl, Peter, Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin and Fan Dora Xia

21500: Environmental Regulation, Market Power, and Socially Responsible Firms

Claire Borsenberger, Helmuth Cremer, Denis Joram, Jean-Marie Lozachmeur and Estelle Malavolti

21499: Family-Friendly Workplace Policies

Julian Costas-Fernandez, Sebastian Findeisen, Anna Raute and Schönberg, Uta

21498: Parenthood and Productivity

Diogo Britto, Caio de Holanda, Bruno Ferman, Alexandre Fonseca, Breno Sampaio and Lucas Warwar

21497: Stable Taxation in Frictional Labor Markets

Mehrab Kiarsi and Pontus Rendahl

21496: Liberation Technology? The Impact of the Sewing Machine on Women

Philipp Ager and Davide Coluccia

21495: Climate and Prehistoric Migration

Peter Huybers, Marco Tabellini, Charles A. Taylor and Francesco Toti

21494: The Word Is Not Enough: Testing the Effects of Information Treatments on Perceived Corruption in Ukraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Ilona Sologoub and Yuriy Fedyk

21493: Is There a Way Back? On the Political Economy of Liberalizing Trade

Luca Bettarelli, Julia Estefania Flores, Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry and Loredana Pisano

21492: Semiparametric Estimation of Heterogeneous Firm-level Producton Functions

Jordi Jaumandreu

21491: Election Campaign with Statements

Kfir Eliaz and Ariel Rubinstein

21490: Ancestral Inequality and Preferences for Redistribution

Graziella Bertocchi, Arcangelo Dimico and Gian Luca Tedeschi

21489: Lobbying in Disguise

Stefano Carattini, Ulrich Matter and Matthias Roesti

21488: Not All Foreign Exchange Reserves Are Created Alike

Antonin Chenard, Barry Eichengreen, Eric Monnet and Florian Morvillier

21487: Debt Deflation and the Rise of the Nazi Party

Thilo Nils Hendrik Albers, Felix Kersting and Monique Reiske

21486: Workplace Flexibility and the Motherhood Penalty: Evidence from the Diffusion of Remote Work

Gaetano Basso, Maria De Paola, Salvatore Lattanzio and Matteo Paradisi

21485: Threshold Disclosure in Collective Decisions

Luca Braghieri, Leonardo Bursztyn and Jan Fasnacht

21484: Paternalistic Information Design

Luca Braghieri

21483: Meaningful Information

Luca Braghieri

21482: Fiscal Policy and Transition Risk

Stefano Carattini, Garth Heutel, Givi Melkadze and Mourelon, Inès

21481: Beyond Vows: Family Structure and Consumption Inequality

Zainab Iftikhar, Theresa Linhard and Hanna Schwank

21480: The Anatomy of Polarization - Evidence from Worker Flows

Fabio Cerina, Elisa Dienesch, Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Alessio Moro

21479: Extreme Weather Events, Fiscal Space, and the Term Structure of Sovereign Debt

Emanuel Moench and Robin Schaal

21478: Private Capital Markets and Inequality

Ararat Gocmen, Clara Martinez-Toledano and Vrinda Mittal

21477: How Single-Sex Schooling Shapes Gender Differences in Effort and Performance under High Stakes

Caterina Calsamiglia, Yarine Fawaz, Daniel Fernandez-Kranz and Junhee Lee

21476: Cycles of Infertility: Intergenerational Transmission and the Role of Assisted Reproduction

Viktoria Falk, Andreas Madestam and Emilia Simeonova

21475: Targeting Attitudes to Combat Sexual Harassment: A Randomized Intervention in the Norwegian Military

Olle Folke, Hanson, Torbjørn, Johnsen, Åshild, Andreas Kotsadam and Johanna Rickne

21474: (De-)Radicalizing the Radical Right with Slanted News on Immigration

Christian Koch and Jean-Robert Tyran

21473: The Taylor Rule: Did the Fed use Discretion Instead?

Michael R. Wickens

21472: The Social Multiplier of Pension Reform

Emre Oral, Rabaté, Simon and Arthur Seibold

21471: Paying More and Buying Less: 2025 Tariffs and U.S. Household Spending

Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem and Leo Feler

21470: Distribution-Free Equilibrium in Search Contests

Emre Ozdenoren and Murat Erkurt

21469: Intertemporal Universalism

Jeanne Hagenbach and Charlotte Saucet

21468: Exchange Rate Insulation Revisited

Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, Müller, Gernot, Sebastian Schmidt and Ben Alexander Schumann

21467: Prenatal Conditions and Midlife Mental Health: Evidence from an Alcohol Policy Experiment

Evelina Linnros and J Peter Nilsson

21466: The Trafalgar Squeeze of Global Liquidity

Vincent Bignon, Benoit Mojon and Miguel Ortiz Serrano

21465: Midterm Reviews and Democratic Resilience

Hans Gersbach

21464: A Randomized Experiment on Improving Job Search Skills of Older Unemployed Workers

Nynke de Groot and Bas van der Klaauw

21463: Estimating Tax-Dependent Compliance: Theory and Evidence from Trade Wars

Andrew Bibler, Yuting Gao, Laura Grigolon and Mark Tremblay

21462: Externalities and Distrust

Gianmarco Daniele, Andrea Martinangeli, Francesco Passarelli, Willem Sas and Lisa Windsteiger

21461: The Seniority Ceiling: Why Some Immigrants Struggle to Rise in Political Office

Olle Folke and Johanna Rickne

21460: The Success of the Embedded State in England

Leander Heldring, Davis Kedrosky, James A. Robinson and Matthias Weigand

21459: Cooperate More, Connect Less: The Network Consequences of Zero-Sum Environments

Sebastiano Della Lena, Yannick Jansen and Yves Zenou

21458: Adam Smith and the Role of the Towns in Feudal Europe

Mark Koyama

21457: Organisational Values, Self-Image and Inclusion: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Girum Abebe, Brooke, Siân, Tom Gole, Simon Quinn and Tom Schwantje

21456: Intertemporal Pass-Through

Mishel Ghassibe, Boromeus Wanengkirtyo and Ivan Yotzov

21455: Land Reforms in Developing Financial Markets: Lessons from England's Land Enclosures 1750-1830

Tomer Ifergane, Walker Ray, Karine van der Beek and Lior Farbman

21454: AI Safety and Competition

Jay Pil Choi, Doh-Shin Jeon and Domenico Menicucci

21453: Weak Bundle, Strong Bundle: How AI Redraws Job Boundaries

Luis Garicano, Jin Li and Yanhui Wu

21452: Third-Party Pricing Algorithms and Information Sharing

Stepan Aleksenko and Jeanine Miklos-Thal