Spillovers from Science

Dennis Verhoeven, Anna Valero, Ralf Martin and Arjun Shah

No 21778, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Quantifying spillovers from scientific knowledge to technology is important for understanding the social returns to science and for designing policy. A key challenge is how to credit scientific work with the value generated in downstream technologies when ideas diffuse through chains of follow-on research. We propose a new measure---Science Rank---that uses the combined patent and paper citation network to assign a share of the private value of patented inventions to the scientific papers they directly or indirectly rely on. Validated against various types of scientific awards, the measure substantially outperforms direct patent-to-paper citation counts in identifying influential science. We document large heterogeneity in spillovers across countries, disciplines, and institutions. The US emerges from our analysis as a powerhouse of science spillovers, benefiting both domestic and foreign technology development. We apply our methodology to examine how different countries and individual institutions contribute to innovation that addresses global challenges such as climate change or more equal economic development. We find that a relatively large share of the total value generated by research in Lower and Middle Income Country (LMIC) feeds into climate change related innovation. We also highlight countries and institutions that are making particular contributions to LMIC innovation.

Date: 2026-07
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