CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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4976: A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series

James Stock, Mark Watson and Massimiliano Marcellino

4975: Jump-and-Rest Effects of US Business Cycles

Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel and Maximo Camacho

4974: Money Demand and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

Andreas Schabert and Christian Stoltenberg

4973: The Clash of Liberalizations: Preferential vs. Multilateral Trade Liberalization in the European Union

Limão, Nuno and Baybars Karacaovali

4972: Bertrand Equilibria and Sharing Rules

Steffen Hoernig

4971: Reforming the Formula: A Modest Proposal for Introducing Development Outcomes in IDA Allocation Procedures

Ravi Kanbur

4970: The Need for Institutional Changes in the Global Financial System: An Analytical Framework

Stijn Claessens and Geoffrey Underhill

4969: Information Channels in Labour Markets. On the Resilience of Referral Hiring

Alessandra Casella and Nobuyuki Hanaki

4968: Favouritism and Financial Incentives: A Natural Experiment

Robert Witt and Neil Rickman

4967: Liquidity, Risk-Taking and the Lender of Last Resort

Rafael Repullo

4966: On Sustainable Pay-As-You-Go Systems

Gabrielle Demange

4965: Trade and Growth with Heterogeneous Firms

Richard Baldwin and Frederic Robert-Nicoud

4964: Productivity Spillovers, Terms of Trade and the 'Home Market Effect'

Paolo Pesenti, Philippe Martin and Giancarlo Corsetti

4963: Product Market Integration, Wages and Inequality

Torben M Andersen and Allan Sørensen

4962: How Changes in Benefits Entitlement Affect the Duration of Unemployment

Jan C. van Ours and Milan Vodopivec

4961: Do Mergers Improve Information? Evidence from the Loan Market

Fabio Panetta, Fabiano Schivardi and Matthew Shum

4960: Loss Functions in Option Valuation: A Framework for Model Selection

Christian Wolff, Dennis Bams and Thorsten Lehnert

4959: Time Variation in Term Premia: International Evidence

Christian Wolff, Willem Verschoor and Ron Jongen

4958: Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration

Christian Wolff and Michel R van Tol

4957: A Phillips Curve for China

David Vines and Jörg Scheibe

4956: Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Volker Wieland and Küster, Keith

4955: Agency Conflicts, Investment and Asset Pricing

Rui Albuquerque and Neng Wang

4954: The Impact of Turkey's Membership on EU Voting

Richard Baldwin and Mika Widgrén

4953: The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion

Andrew Rose

4952: Belief in a Just World and Redistributive Politics

Jean Tirole and Bénabou, Roland

4951: Allocation of Prizes in Asymmetric All-Pay Auctions

Aner Sela and Chen Cohen

4950: Did Inflation Really Soar After the Euro Cash Changeover? Indirect Evidence from ATM Withdrawals

Francesco Lippi and Paolo Angelini

4949: Do Locational Spillovers Pay? Empirical Evidence from German IPO Data

David Audretsch and Erik Lehmann

4948: Monetary Policy with Single Instrument Feedback Rules

Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles and Adão, Bernardino

4947: The Early Modern Great Divergence: Wages, Prices and Economic Development in Europe and Asia, 1500-1800

Stephen Broadberry and Bishnupriya Gupta

4946: Demand for Education and Labour Market Outcomes: Lessons from the Abolition of Compulsory Conscription in France

Eric Maurin and Theodora Xenogiani

4945: Assessing the Foreign Control of Production of Technology: The Case of a Small Open Economy

Reinhilde Veugelers, Michele Cincera and Bruno van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie

4944: Financing and the Protection of Innovators

Javier Suarez and Gerard Llobet

4943: Neoclassical Growth and the 'Trivial' Steady State

Andreas Irmen and Hendrik Hakenes

4942: Learning Foreign Languages.Theoretical and Empirical Implications of the Selten and Pool Model

Victor Ginsburgh, Ortuño-Ortin, Ignacio and Shlomo Weber

4941: Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: A Solution

Lars Svensson, Torsten Persson and Mats Persson

4940: Vive la Révolution! Long Term Returns of 1968 to the Angry Students

Eric Maurin and Sandra McNally

4939: Marriage and the City

C. N. Teulings, Pieter Gautier and Michael Svarer

4938: Forms of Democracy, Policy and Economic Development

Torsten Persson

4937: How Transition Paths Differ: Enterprise Performance in Russia and China

Saul Estrin and Sumon Bhaumik

4936: A Simple Model of Economic Geography à la Helpman-Tabuchi

Jacques Thisse and Yasusada Murata

4935: Do Risk Premia Protect from Banking Crises?

Hans Gersbach and Jan Wenzelburger

4934: Optimal Sliding Scale Regulation: An Application to Regional Electricity Distribution in England and Wales

Paul Levine, Lester Hunt, Neil Rickman and David Hawdon

4933: Rising Trade Costs? Agglomeration and Trade with Endogenous Transaction Costs

Gilles Duranton and Michael Storper

4932: The Corporate Governance of Defined-Benefit Pension Plans: Evidence from the United Kingdom

Cocco, Joâo F. and Paolo Volpin

4931: Does Longevity Cause Growth?

Moshe Hazan and Hosny Zoabi

4930: Asset Pricing Implications of Pareto Optimality with Private Information

Luigi Pistaferri and Narayana Kocherlakota

4929: Trade Protection and Industry Wage Structure in Poland

Beata Javorcik and Chor-Ching Goh

4928: Je T'aime, Moi Non Plus: Bilateral Opinions and International Trade

Thierry Mayer and Anne-Célia Disdier

4927: Job Security and Job Protection

Andrew Clark and Fabien Postel-Vinay

4926: City Structure, Job Search and Labour Discrimination. Theory and Policy Implications

Yves Zenou and Harris Selod

4925: Strategic Experimentation and Disruptive Technological Change

Fabiano Schivardi and Martin Schneider

4924: Managerial Leverage is Limited By the Extent of the Market: Hierarchies, Specialization and the Utilization of Lawyers' Human C

Thomas N. Hubbard and Luis Garicano

4923: International Financial Adjustment

Helene Rey and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

4922: Euler Equation Errors

Martin Lettau and Sydney Ludvigson

4921: Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-based Explanation of the Value Premium

Martin Lettau and Jessica Wachter

4920: Current Account Theory and the Dynamics of US Net Foreign Liabilities

Giancarlo Corsetti and Panagiotis Konstantinou

4919: Retained State Shareholding in Chinese PLCs: Does Government Ownership Reduce Corporate Value?

Saul Estrin and Lihui Tian

4918: Are the Welfare State and Distribution Really that Bad for the Economy? Effects of Reciprocal Altruism, Consumer Rivalry and Se

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg

4917: A Full Equilibrium Relevant Market Test: Application to Computer Servers

Marc Ivaldi and Lörincz, Szabolcs

4916: Cross-Country Variations in Capital Structures: The Role of Bankruptcy Codes

Kose John, Viral Acharya and Rangarajan K Sundaram

4915: Trends in Hours, Balanced Growth and the Role of Technology in the Business Cycle

Galí, Jordi

4914: The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff

John Campbell and Luis Viceira

4913: Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets

Luis Viceira and George Chacko

4912: Identifying Technology Spillovers and Product Market Rivalry

Mark Schankerman, John van Reenen and Nicholas Bloom

4911: Monetary Policies for Developing Countries: The Role of Institutional Quality

Shang-Jin Wei and Haizhou Huang

4910: The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation

Carlo Favero, Söderström, Ulf and Iryna Kaminska

4909: Parameter Instability, Model Uncertainty and the Choice of Monetary Policy

Carlo Favero and Fabio Milani

4908: Regional Wage and Employment Responses to Market Potential in the EU

Thierry Mayer and Keith Head

4907: A Theory of Influence: The Strategic Value of Public Ignorance

Juan D. Carrillo and Isabelle Brocas

4906: Legal, Actual and Desirable Independence: A Case Study of the Bank of Israel

Alex Cukierman

4905: Entrepreneurship Capital - Determinants and Impact

David Audretsch and Max Keilbach

4904: The Demise of Investment Banking Partnerships: Theory and Evidence

Alan Morrison and William J Wilhelm

4903: Foreign Direct Investment, Competitive Pressure and Spillovers. An Empirical Analysis of Spanish Firm Level Data

Georges Siotis and Alessandro Sembenelli

4902: Exclusive Dealing, Entry and Mergers

Massimo Motta, Lars Persson and Chiara Fumagalli

4901: Structuring and Restructuring Sovereign Debt: The Role of Seniority

Patrick Bolton and Olivier Jeanne

4900: Autopsy on an Empire: Understanding Mortality in Russia and the Former Soviet Union

Elizabeth Brainerd and David Cutler

4899: Demand Reduction and Pre-emptive Bidding in Multi-Unit License Auctions

Theo Offerman, Jacob Goeree and Randolph Sloof

4898: Do Social Policies Harm Employment? Second-Best Effects of Taxes and Benefits on Labour Markets

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg

4897: Back to Keynes?

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg

4896: Rolling Back the Public Sector - Differential Effects on Unemployment, Investment and Growth

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg

4895: Globalization and Disinflation: The Efficiency Channel

Assaf Razin and Prakash Loungani

4894: Firms' Productivity Growth and R&D Spillovers: An Analysis of Alternative Technological Proximity Measures

Michele Cincera

4893: Pricing Behaviour and the Introduction of the Euro: Evidence from a Panel of Restaurants

Eugenio Gaiotti and Francesco Lippi

4892: The Economics of Books

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg, Jan C. van Ours and Marcel Canoy

4891: Intermediation in Innovation

Heidrun Hoppe-Wewetzer and Emre Ozdenoren

4890: Party Governance and Political Competition with an Application to the American Direct Primacy

Micael Castanheira, Benoit Crutzen and Nicolas Sahuguet

4889: Credit Crunch and Keynesian Contraction: Argentina in Crisis

Marcus Miller and García-Fronti, Javier

4888: The US Current Account and the Dollar

Francesco Giavazzi, Olivier Blanchard and Filipa Sa

4887: Location Choice and Employment Decisions: A Comparison of German and Swedish Multinationals

Karolina Ekholm, Sascha Becker, Jäckle, Robert and Marc-Andreas Muendler

4886: Is Cash Negative Debt? A Hedging Perspective on Corporate Financial Policies

Viral Acharya, Heitor Almeida and Murillo Campello

4885: Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation

Klaus Adam

4884: Preferential Trade Agreements as Stumbling Blocks for Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Evidence for the US

Limão, Nuno

4883: On the Community Patent

Steffen Hoernig

4882: Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms and Their Effect on Private Wealth Accumulation

Tullio Jappelli, Mario Padula and Renata Bottazzi

4881: Child Labour, Crop Shocks and Credit Constraints

Rajeev Dehejia, Roberta Gatti and Kathleen Beegle

4880: Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions

Tommaso Monacelli and Ester Faia

4879: The Effects of Globalization on Worker Training

Hans Gersbach and Armin Schmutzler

4878: Benefits of Broad-based Option Pay

Roman Inderst and Holger Mueller

4877: Is Poland the Next Spain?

Francesco Caselli and Silvana Tenreyro