CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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9662: Relationship and Transaction Lending in a Crisis

Xavier Freixas, Patrick Bolton, Paolo Emilio Mistrulli and Leonardo Gambacorta

9661: Labor Markets in Regional Trade Agreements: What Do We Know?

Jaime de Melo and Julie Regolo

9660: Trade in a 'Green Growth' Development Strategy: Issues and Challenges

Jaime de Melo

9659: Price Effects of Sovereign Debt Auctions in the Euro-zone: The Role of the Crisis

Roel Beetsma, Frank de Jong, Massimo Giuliodori and Daniel Widijanto

9658: Effects of Transitory Shocks to Aggregate Output on Consumption in Poor Countries

Mark Gradstein and Brückner, Markus

9657: Exogenous Volatility and the Size of Government in Developing Countries

Mark Gradstein and Brückner, Markus

9656: Participation Constraints in Pension Systems

Roel Beetsma and Ward Romp

9655: Testing for Granger Causality with Mixed Frequency Data

Eric Ghysels, Jonathan B. Hill and Kaiji Motegi

9654: Testing for Cointegration with Temporally Aggregated and Mixed-frequency Time Series

Eric Ghysels and J. Miller

9653: The Media and the Diffusion of Information in Financial Markets: Evidence from Newspaper Strikes

Joel Peress

9652: Recreating the South Sea Bubble: Lessons from an Experiment in Financial History

Hans-Joachim Voth, Giovanni Giusti and Charles Noussair

9651: Reputation and Entry in Procurement

Giancarlo Spagnolo, Jeffrey Butler, Pierluigi Conzo and Enrica Carbone

9650: Economic Conditions at Birth, Birth Weight, Ability, and the Causal Path to Cardiovascular Mortality

Gerard van den Berg and Bitte Modin

9649: Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes

Paolo Surico and James Cloyne

9648: Comparing Charitable Fundraising Schemes: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment and a Structural Model

Steffen Huck, Imran Rasul and Andrew Shephard

9647: The ECB and the banks: the tale of two crises

Lucrezia Reichlin

9646: The Time for Austerity: Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Fiscal Policy

Alan Taylor and Oscar Jorda

9645: Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs

Cosmin Ilut and Francesco Bianchi

9644: Factoryless Goods Producers in the US

Andrew Bernard

9643: Escaping the Great Recession

Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi

9642: Do Firms Benefit from Active Labour Market Policies?

Michael Lechner, Conny Wunsch and Patrycja Scioch

9641: Complexity, Efficiency, and Fairness of Multi-Product Monopoly Pricing

Eugenio Miravete, Katja Seim and Jeff Thurk

9640: A Neoclassical Growth Model for the Insiders ? Outsiders Society

Tryphon Kollintzas, Vanghelis Vassilatos and Dimitris Papageorgiou

9639: Continued Existence of Cows Disproves Central Tenets of Capitalism?

Dean Karlan, Santosh Anagol and Alvin Etang

9638: Long-Term Barriers to Economic Development

Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg

9637: The Real Costs of Disclosure

Alex Edmans, Chong Huang and Mirko Heinle

9636: Safety Traps

Kenza Benhima and Baptiste Massenot

9635: Currency Risk in Currency Unions

Martin Wolf, Müller, Gernot and Alexander Kriwoluzky

9634: Unemployment of Non-western Immigrants in the Great Recession

Jan C. van Ours and Červený, Jakub

9633: Twentieth Century Growth

Nicholas Crafts and Kevin O'Rourke

9632: Distance to cannabis-shops and age of onset of cannabis use

Jan C. van Ours and Ali Palali

9631: Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks

Barbara Rossi, Atsushi Inoue and Emily Anderson

9630: The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession

Roger Farmer

9629: Scrapping Subsidies during the Financial Crisis - Evidence from the Europe

Frank Verboven and Nina Leheyda

9628: Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions for Business Cycles

Wouter Den Haan

9627: The Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in Kenya

Edward Miguel, Gerard Padro i Miquel, Ameet Morjaria and Remi Jedwab

9626: The Location of the UK Cotton Textiles Industry in 1838: a Quantitative Analysis

Nicholas Crafts and Nikolaus Wolf

9625: Geography, Transparency and Institutions

Joram Mayshar, Omer Moav and Zvika Neeman

9624: News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges

Franck Portier and Paul Beaudry

9623: On the Welfare Cost of Consumption Fluctuations in the Presence of Memorable Goods

Andrew Postlewaite, Dirk Krueger and Rong Hai

9622: Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll-Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico

Eric Verhoogen, , and Todd Kumler

9621: The Political Economy of Financial Systems: Evidence from Suffrage Reforms in the Last Two Centuries

Hans Degryse, Armin Schwienbacher and Thomas Lambert

9620: When Strong Ties are Strong: Networks and Youth Labor Market Entry

Francis Kramarz and Oskar Skans

9619: Public Debate and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Voting Premium

Mariassunta Giannetti and Fabio Braggion

9618: Market-Based Bank Capital Regulation

Jeremy Bulow and Paul Klemperer

9617: Backward integration, forward integration, and vertical foreclosure

Yossi Spiegel

9616: International Competitiveness and Monetary Policy: Strategic Policy and Coordination with a Production Relocation Externality

Giancarlo Corsetti and Paul Bergin

9615: Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S

Nuno Limão and Kyle Handley

9614: What separates us? Sources of resistance to globalization

Thierry Mayer and Keith Head

9613: The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation

Thomas Chaney

9612: Information Management in Banking Crises

Joel Shapiro and David Skeie

9611: Monetary policy risk: Rules vs. discretion

David Backus, Stanley Zin, Mikhail Chernov and Irina Zviadadze

9610: Risk-Adjusting the Returns to Venture Capital

Stefan Nagel and Arthur Korteweg

9609: A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment

Emmanuel Saez and Pascal Michaillat

9608: Precautionary Saving over the Business Cycle

Xavier Ragot and Edouard Challe

9607: First Impressions Matter: Signalling as a Source of Policy Dynamics

Michael McMahon and Stephen Hansen

9606: Sovereign Default Risk and Banks in a Monetary Union

Harald Uhlig

9605: Does Violent Crime Deter Physical Activity?

Carol Propper, Michael Shields and Katharina Janke

9604: Do we go shopping downtown or in the `burbs? Why not both?

Jacques Thisse, Igor Sloev and Philip Ushchev

9603: Outsourcing, Offshoring and Innovation: Evidence from Firm-level Data for Emerging Economies

Görg, Holger and Ursula Fritsch

9602: Estimating the preferences of central bankers: an analysis of four voting records

Sylvester Eijffinger, Ronald Mahieu and Louis Raes

9601: Noisy News in Business cycles

Marco Lippi, Mario Forni, Luca Sala and Luca Gambetti

9600: Migration and Tax Competition Within a Union

Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka

9599: Export market exit, financial pressure and the crisis

Görg, Holger and Marina-Eliza Spaliara

9598: Creativity, cities and innovation

Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés and Neil Lee

9597: Finance, Growth and Fragility: The Role of Government

Thorsten Beck

9596: Dynamic Aid Allocation

Jonathan Temple, Fabien Postel-Vinay and Patrick Carter

9595: Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party in Weimar Germany: 1919-33

Hans-Joachim Voth, Voigtländer, Nico and Shanker Satyanath

9594: State Incentives for Innovation, Star Scientists and Jobs: Evidence from Biotech

Enrico Moretti and Daniel Wilson

9593: Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies, and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence from the Tennessee Valley Authority

Enrico Moretti and Patrick Kline

9592: Accession to the World Trade Organization and Tariff Evasion

Beata Javorcik and Gaia Narciso

9591: The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis

Ricardo Reis

9590: The growth of cities

Gilles Duranton and Diego Puga

9589: Time Varying Risk Aversion

Luigi Guiso, Luigi Zingales and Paola Sapienza

9588: Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries, 1700-2010

Thomas Piketty and Gabriel Zucman

9587: Private, social and self-insurance for long-term care in the presence of family help: A political economy analysis

Pierre Pestieau and Philippe De Donder

9586: Evaluating the law of one price using micro panel data

Laurent Gobillon, François-Charles Wolff and Patrice Guillotreau

9585: Acquisitions, Entry, and Innovation in Network Industries

Lars Persson, Norbäck, Pehr-Johan and Tåg, Joacim

9584: The Buyer Margins of Firms' Exports

Gianmarco Ottaviano, Christian Volpe Martincus and Jeronimo Carballo

9583: Residual-based Rank Specification Tests for AR-GARCH type models

Bas J M Werker and Elena Andreou

9582: Distributional Impact of Commodity Price Shocks: Australia over a Century

Jeffrey Williamson and Sambit Bhattacharyya

9581: Asset Allocation and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Eurozone

Harald Hau and Sandy Lai

9580: The Natural Rate Hypothesis: An idea past its sell-by-date

Roger Farmer

9579: Tariffs, Trade and Productivity: A Quantitative Evaluation of Heterogeneous Firm Models

Cuñat, Alejandro and Holger Breinlich

9578: Group Lending Without Joint Liability

Maitreesh Ghatak, Thiemo Fetzer and Jonathan de Quidt

9577: The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy

Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Christoph Trebesch and Mitu Gulati

9576: Do DSGE Models Forecast More Accurately Out-of-Sample than VAR Models?

Barbara Rossi, Gürkaynak, Refet and Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin

9575: Exchange Rate Predictability

Barbara Rossi

9574: The effect of firms' partial retirement policies on the labour market outcomes of their employees

Michael Lechner, Conny Wunsch and Martin Huber

9573: From Green Users to Green Voters

Diego Comin and Johannes Rode

9572: Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis

Lutz Kilian, Christiane Baumeister and Xiaoqing Zhou

9571: Building Reputation for Contract Renewal: Implications for Performance Dynamics and Contract Duration

Patrick Rey and Elisabetta Iossa

9570: Nonparametric Predictive Regression

Elena Andreou, Ioannis Kasparis and Peter Phillips

9569: Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach

Lutz Kilian and Christiane Baumeister

9568: Regional Growth and Regional Decline

Gianmarco Ottaviano, Jonathan Temple and Holger Breinlich

9567: Central Bank Design

Ricardo Reis

9566: External Adjustment, Global Imbalances and Valuation Effects

Helene Rey and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

9565: The Effect of College Employment on Graduation: Evidence from France

Fougère, Denis, Magali Beffy and Arnaud Maurel

9564: What are we learning from business training and entrepreneurship evaluations around the developing world?

Christopher Woodruff and David McKenzie

9563: On Keeping Your Powder Dry: Fiscal Foundations of Financial and Price Stability

Maurice Obstfeld