CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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21375: Job Mismatch and Early Career Success

Julie Berry Cullen, Gordon Dahl and Richard De Thorpe

21374: Rounding Up: Complexity, Satisficing, and Bias in Inflation Expectations

Michael McMahon, Luba Petersen and Ryan Rholes

21373: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis

Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

21372: From Dollar Dominance to Dollar Discontent

Barry Eichengreen

21371: The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Regulation: New Evidence from a High-Frequency Approach

Thomas Drechsel and Ko Miura

21370: Together We Tip the Scale: Social Norms and Body Mass

Panos Margaris and Johanna Wallenius

21369: Subjective Earnings and Employment Dynamics

Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

21368: To Change, or Not to Change the Inflation Target: Credibility is the Question

Gene Ambrocio, Andrea Ferrero, Esa Jokivuolle, Nigel McClung and Kim Ristolainen

21367: The Aggregate Consequences of Local Capital Taxation

Antonin Bergeaud, Brouillette, Jean-Félix, Louis de Lachapelle and Malgouyres, Clément

21366: Monetary Policies in a World of Biased Agents

Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji

21365: Trend Inflation Shocks and Financial Heterogeneity

Evi Pappa, Sebastian Rast and Alejandro Vicondoa

21364: Development Interventions in Africa’s Historical Borderlands: Evidence from Colonial Missions

Cermeño, Alexandra L., Alessandra Quintigliano and Jacob Weisdorf

21363: The Impact of Social Mixing at School: Evidence From a French Desegregation Program

Ghazala Azmat, Julien Grenet, Elise Huillery, Youssef Souidi and Yann Algan

21362: Industrialization, Wealth Concentration, and Elite Turnover

Thilo Nils Hendrik Albers, Felix Kersting and Timo Stieglitz

21361: Gaming the Giants: How Startups Shape Innovation to Spark Acquisition Wars

Ozlem Bedre Defolie, Gary Biglaiser and Bruno Jullien

21360: Strategic Communication with Negative Reciprocity and Endogenous Preferences

Ran Eilat and Kfir Eliaz

21359: Sticky Gravity

Mario Larch, Leandro Navarro and Dennis Novy

21358: Bad News and Policy Views: Expectations, Disappointment, and Opposition to Affirmative Action

Louis-Pierre Lepage, Heather Sarsons and Michael Thaler

21357: Regulating Inaction: The Case of Price Walking

Jamie Coen, Alessandro Gavazza, Daniel Gottlieb and Tarun Ramadorai

21356: The Contribution of Foreign Master's Students to US Start-Ups

Michel Beine, Giovanni Peri and Morgan Raux

21355: Carbon Pricing and Inflation Expectations

Michael Bauer, Känzig, Diego and Glenn Rudebusch

21354: The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data

Tamar den Besten and Känzig, Diego

21353: When the State Takes Over: Nationalization, Firm Performance, and Political Backlash

Felipe Gonzalez and Mounu Prem

21352: Him Too? Analyzing the Effects of Epstein Connections

Marina Gertsberg, Michaela Pagel and Ekaterina Volkova

21351: Learning in a Correlated World

Arjada Bardhi and Steven Callander

21350: Recombinant Search

Arjada Bardhi and Steven Callander

21349: The Shared Costs of Pursuing Shareholder Values

Michele Fioretti, Victor Saint-Jean and Simon Smith

21348: Sovereign Hold-Up and Technology Adoption: Evidence from the North Sea

Michele Fioretti, Alessandro Iaria, Aljoscha Janssen, Mazet-Sonilhac, Clément and Robert K. Perrons

21347: Interest-Rate Fee Substitution: Credit Facilitation in Segmented Markets

Cocco, João F., Lakshmi Naaraayanan and Jagdish Tripathy

21346: Green Mortgages

Cocco, João F., Bernardo Mendes and Lakshmi Naaraayanan

21345: Company Wage Policy in a Low-Wage Labor Market

Giulia Giupponi and Stephen Machin

21344: Retirement Under Policy Uncertainty

Piera Bello, Vincenzo Galasso and Alessandro Izzo

21343: Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?

Serdar Birinci, Loukas Karabarbounis and Kurt See

21342: Low Fertility Around the World: The Role of Social Norms

Kanato Nakakuni, Tertilt, Michèle and Minchul Yum

21341: How a Nation was Born: Brazilian Economic Growth, 1574–1920

Guilherme Lambais and Nuno Palma

21340: Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization

David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, Maggie R. Jones and Bradley Setzler

21339: Does the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks Change when Inflation is High?

Fabio Canova and Pérez Forero, Fernando J.

21338: Incentives and Strategic Behaviour: An Experiment

Teresa Esteban Casanelles and Gonçalves, Duarte

21337: Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, David Deming, Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola and Jonas Jessen

21336: Pricing and Investment by a Two-Sided Monopoly Platform

Moraga-González, José-Luis, Evgenia Motchenkova and Long Hoà ng

21335: Tracing the Impact of Bank Shocks under Bank-Specific Credit Demand

Max Bruche, Farinha, Luísa, Sotirios Kokas, Enrico Sette and Serafeim Tsoukas

21334: Competing with Term Length

Hans Gersbach and Arthur Schichl

21333: Nonlinear Business-Cycle Anatomy

Marco Brianti, Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti and Antonio Granese

21332: Pharmaceutical Advertising in Dynamic Equilibrium

Pierre Dubois and Ariel Pakes

21331: Central Bank Independence and Accountability: An Update

Sylvester Eijffinger and Jakob de Haan

21330: Bending the Climate Change Curve by Blending Finance: What is the Real Potential Value-Added of Guarantees?

Stijn Claessens and Sony Kapoor

21329: Who Gains from Electricity Export?

Rikard Forslid

21328: Quantifying Strategic Dependence

Niccolo Consonni and Glenn Magerman

21327: Cross-Country CIP Deviations

Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop

21326: The Elasticity of Substitution between Native and Immigrant Labor: A Meta-Analysis

Klara Kantova, Tomas Havranek, Zuzana Irsova and Jiri Schwarz

21325: Female Promotions and the Academic Pipeline: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Manuel Bagues, Milan Makany, Giulia Vattuone and Natalia Zinovyeva

21324: “Us vs Themâ€: Salient Conflict and Belief Polarization

Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Guido Tabellini

21323: The Worth of a “Woâ€: Gender Bias in Financial Advice from LLMs

Richard Foltyn and Jonna Olsson

21322: Optimal Default in a Small Open Economy: Senegal’s Hidden Debt Crisis

Louphou Coulibaly and Abdoulaye Ndiaye

21321: Stablecoins and Monetary Policy Transmission

Carlo Altavilla, Miguel Boucinha, Lorenzo Burlon, Ramon Adalid, Roberta Fortes and Franziska Maruhn

21320: Strategic Confusopoly: Evidence from the UK Mobile Telecommunications Market

Ambre Elsas-Nicolle, Christos Genakos and Tobias Kretschmer

21319: An Olympic Opportunity

Christos Genakos, Eleni Kyrkopoulou and Elias Papaioannou

21318: Private Information in the Family

Suzanne Bellue, Matthias Doepke and Tertilt, Michèle

21317: Do Elections Moderate or Polarize Political Rhetoric?

Tito Boeri, Nina Nikiforova and Guido Tabellini

21316: Offsetting the Earnings Disincentive in Public Housing: Evidence from a Behaviorally Informed Field Intervention

Holly Dykstra and Fernández-Guerrico, Sofia

21315: The Effects of Fiscal News on Household Expectations and Spending: New Causal Evidence

Myungkyu Shim, Kwang Hwan Kim, Myunghwan Andrew Lee, Sangyup Choi, Siye Bae, Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

21314: Mobility-Restricting Covenants in Business Contracts: The Case of Franchising

Francine Lafontaine, Lorenzo Luisetto and J.J. Prescott

21313: Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives

Baslandze, Salomé, Zachary Edwards, John Graham, Ty McClure, Michael Sparks, Brent Meyer, Sonya Waddell and Daniel Weitz

21312: Adapting to Brexit: the Response of Corporate Structures to Geopolitical Uncertainty

Meredith A. Crowley, Mar Domenech Palacios, Elisa Faraglia, Chryssi Giannitsarou and Lea Havemeister

21311: Demand Shocks in Equity Markets and Firm Responses

Fernando Broner, Juan J. Cortina, Sergio L. Schmukler and Tomas Williams

21310: Information Span in Credit Market Competition

Zhiguo He, Jing Huang and Cecilia Parlatore Siritto

21309: DNA Laws and the Pursuit of Racial Justice: Access to Forensic DNA Technology and the Exoneration of the Wrongfully Convicted

d’Este, Rocco and Noam Yuchtman

21308: Social Mobility in Western Countries: The Role of Families, Networks, and Institutions

Martin Nybom, Rodríguez Mora, José V and Kjell G Salvanes

21307: Preparing Kids for Capitalism: The Effect of German Reunification on the Intergenerational Transmission of Preferences

Matthias Doepke and Mariko Klasing

21306: The Labour Market in the Euro Area: And yet, it Moves!

Agostino Consolo, Claudia Foroni and Hjelm, Linnéa

21305: Monopolistic Competition under Horizontal and Vertical Differentiation

Sergey Kichko, Marco Marini, Ricardo Saulle and Thisse, Jacques-François

21304: An 'Austrian' Model of International Specialization

Pol Antràs and Adrian Kulesza

21303: Residential Air Purifiers and the Value of Clean Air

Ashfaqul Chowdhury, Teevrat Garg, Maulik Jagnani and Martin Mattsson

21302: The Effects of Education on Corruption: Evidence from Vietnam's University Expansion

Edmund J. Malesky, Martin Mattsson, Khoa Vu and Liaoliang Zhang

21301: Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Labor Market Dynamics

Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu and Francesco Zanetti

21300: Dynamic Carbon Emission Management

Maria Cecilia Bustamante and Francesca Zucchi

21299: Does Generative AI Narrow Education-Based Productivity Gaps? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Guillermo Cruces, Diego Fernandez Meijide, Sebastian Galiani, Ramiro Galvez and Lombardi, María

21298: FDI, Forward Linkages and Services Inputs

Bernard Hoekman, Daniel Prosi, Marco Sanfilippo and Rohit Ticku

21297: Price Caps and Coordinated Effects: Evidence from Retail Gasoline

Simon Martin and Frank Verboven

21296: Consumption Inequality in the Digital Age

Kai Arvai and Katja Mann

21295: Who Trusts National Institutions and The Role of Media Use: A Global Analysis Across Regions

Charles Goodhart and Ly Hoang Vu

21294: Services Across Borders: How Firms Organize Remote Work at Scale

Megha Patnaik

21293: Attention (And Money) Is All You Need: Why Universities Are Struggling to Keep AI Talent

Ufuk Akcigit, Craig A. Chikis, Emin Dinlersoz and Nathan Goldschlag

21292: On the Role of Natural Capital - Sustainability, Dynamic (in)Efficiency, and Inclusive Wealth

Torben M Andersen, Løchte Jørgensen, Cecilie Marie and Allan Soerensen

21291: The Economics of Not Knowing: A Symmetric Ignorance Theory of IPO Pricing

Michel Habib and Alexander Ljungqvist

21290: Financial Conditions Targeting in a Multi-Asset Open Economy

Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek

21289: Shaping Society's Character: The Role of Schools in Developing Social and Emotional Skills

Sule Alan

21288: Refugee Return

Joop Adema, Cevat Giray Aksoy, Yvonne Giesing and Panu Poutvaara

21287: Climate Fairness and Growth: Allocating the Remaining Carbon Budget

Galina Hale, Michael Halling, Nora Paulus and Han Pham

21286: From Free Rider to Innovator: The Rise of China's Drug Development

Panle Barwick, Hongyuan Xia and Tianli Xia

21285: A Stairway to Success: How Parenting Shapes Culture and Social Stratification

Francesco Agostinelli, Matthias Doepke, Giuseppe Sorrenti and Fabrizio Zilibotti

21284: Protection for Whom? The Political Economy of Protective Labor Laws for Women

Matthias Doepke, Hanno Foerster, Anne Hannusch and Tertilt, Michèle

21283: Stakeholders’ Aversion to Inequality and Bank Lending to Minorities

Matteo Crosignani and Hanh Le

21282: The Global Incumbency Advantage

Raphael Descamps, Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet

21281: Optimal Formula Instruments

Kirill Borusyak and Peter Hull

21280: Cross-Border Payment Technologies: Innovations and Challenges

Stijn Claessens and Tara Rice

21279: Education and Skills During the First Industrial Revolution in England

Alexandra de Pleijt, Julius Koschnick and Patrick Wallis

21278: Frost and Fire: A Tale of Two Crises

Vladimir Asriyan, Priit Jeenas and Martín, Alberto

21277: Why did Inflation Rise and Fall in 2021-24? Channels and Evidence from Expectations

Ricardo Reis

21276: Digital Network Centrality and the Structure of Goods Trade

Gianmarco Ottaviano