Innovation Uncertainty Shapes Divergent Pathways Toward Decarbonization

Theo Moers, Davide Fioriti and Gernot Wagner

No 21968, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Clean-energy technologies are getting better and cheaper, but just how much is uncertain. Falling costs for solar, wind, and batteries have repeatedly changed expectations for the power-sector transition. Yet most models still use exogenous cost scenarios or fixed learning curves, limiting feedbacks among deployment, innovation, and system design. We here examine how modeled innovation uncertainty is linked to clean-energy deployment pathways with no pre-defined carbon constraints or price. By coupling empirically validated stochastic learning processes for solar, wind, and batteries to a recursive global energy-system model, we trace how uncertain future costs and deployment feedbacks shape power-system pathways. The median 2050 system reaches ≥75% renewable electricity (10–90% range: ∼67–82%), with a median fossil electricity share of ≤20% (∼13–27%). Yet specific pathways and cumulative emissions vary widely. Pathways with earlier clean deployment lower emissions at little energy-system-cost premium, suggesting that policy evaluation should go well beyond expected costs and instead focus on early investment and transition pathways.

Keywords: Renewable energy; Clean Energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q47 Q54 Q55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-09
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP21968 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21968

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP21968

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CEPR ().