CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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20648: The Changing Nature of International Trade and its Implications for Development

Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg and Michele Ruta

20647: Türkiye's Homemade Crises

A. Hakan Kara and Alp Simsek

20646: Green Premium or Brown Discount? Evidence from Experimental Asset Markets

Peiran Jiao, Kees Koedijk and Yilong Xu

20645: Who Adapts and who Finances? Firm-Level Evidence on Climate Mitigation, Gender, and Access to Credit

Charles Goodhart and Ly Hoang Vu

20644: Latent Polarization

Klaus Desmet, Ortuño-Ortin, Ignacio and Romain Wacziarg

20643: Do Political Representation Gaps Cause Populism? Evidence from the 2025 German Election

Laurenz Guenther and Salvatore Nunnari

20642: Empowerment or Indoctrination? Female Training Programs under Dictatorship

González, Felipe, Mounu Prem and Cristine von Dessauer

20641: Climate insurance protection gap: a literature review and a research agenda for decision making

Irene Monasterolo, Karl Naumann-Woleske and Carmine Russo

20640: Walking the Talk? Bank Climate Commitments and Green Lending in Emerging Markets

Mariana Bernad, Ralph De Haas and Juan Pablo Rud

20639: Collateral and Credit

Hans Degryse, Olivier De Jonghe, Luc Laeven and Tong Zhao

20638: Outside Job Opportunities and the Gender Gap in Pay

Gülümser, Dogan, Peter Fredriksson and Lena Hensvik

20637: The Offensive Power of Defense News in Europe

Nadav Ben Zeev, Evi Pappa and Elena Scola Gagliardi

20636: One Fed, Many Voices: Coordinated Communication vs. Transparent Debate

Milena Djourelova, Filippo Ferroni, Leonardo Melosi and Alessandro Villa

20635: The Rise of Online Dating and Heterogamous Marriages

Yujung Hwang, Aureo de Paula and Fanzhu Yang

20634: Training in the Age of AI: A Theory of Career Viability

Luis Garicano and Luis Rayo

20633: Agreeing to Disagree: The Economics of Betting Exchanges

Karl Whelan

20632: Insuring Labor Income Shocks: The Role of the Dynasty

Andreas Fagereng, Luigi Guiso, Luigi Pistaferri and Marius Ring

20631: Makers and Takers: The Economics of the Kalshi Prediction Market

Constantin Burgi, Wanying Deng and Karl Whelan

20630: From Skills to Occupations: Comparative Advantage and Cross-Country Income Differences

Charles Gottlieb, Jan Grobovsek and Alexander Monge-Naranjo

20629: She who Pays the Piper Calls the Number: Reparations and Gender Differences in Fertility Choice

Moshe Hazan and Shay Tsur

20628: Micro and Macro Perspectives on Production-Based Markups

John Fernald, Amit Gandhi, Dimitrije Ruzic and James Traina

20627: The “Value Principle†in Management Practices, Organizational Design and Industrial Organization

Patrick Legros and Andrew Newman

20626: Variants of Violence: Classifying Conflict Types and Policies for Peace

Dominic Rohner, Oliver Vanden Eynde and Emma Verhille

20625: Trading around Geopolitics

Giancarlo Corsetti, Banu Demir and Beata Javorcik

20624: The Ethical Mirror

Maya Eden and Paolo G. Piacquadio

20623: Public Good Provision and Group Size: Elevator Retrofits

Asplund, Björn Marcus and David Genesove

20622: Automated Credit Limit Increases and Consumer Welfare

Vitaly Bord, Agnes Kovacs and Patrick Moran

20621: The Transmission of Shocks across Sectors and the Dynamics of Sectoral Prices

Francesca Monti and Leila Van Keirsbilck

20620: Flexclusivity: Exclusive Agreements with Competitive Flexibility

Choné, Philippe and Laurent Linnemer

20619: The Transmission of Reliable and Unreliable Information

Thomas Graeber, Shakked Noy and Christopher Roth

20618: Wage Markdowns and the Sorting of Workers to Firms when Skills are Bundled

Choné, Philippe, Francis Kramarz and Nordström Skans, Oskar

20617: How do Beliefs and Preferences over Jobs Affect Enrollment in Vocational Training: Experimental Evidence from India

Apurav Yash Bhatiya, Bhaskar Chakravorty, Imbert, Clément and Roland Rathelot

20616: Labor Force Transitions at Older Ages: Burnout, Recovery, and Reverse Retirement

Lindsay Jacobs and Suphanit Piyapromdee

20615: Take-up of Social Benefits: Experimental Evidence from France

Laura Castell, Marc Gurgand, Imbert, Clément and Todor Tochev

20614: Career Paths with a Two-Body Problem: Colocation and Gendered Professional Crossroads

Valeria Rueda and Guillaume Wilemme

20613: Membership Turnover and Policy Disagreement at the FOMC

Alessandro Riboni and Francisco Ruge-Murcia

20612: What Makes Depositors Tick? Bank Data Insights into Households’ Liquid Asset Allocation

Fernando Cirelli and Arna Olafsson

20611: Innovation and the Great Divergence

Stephen Broadberry and Runzuo Zhai

20610: Are People Systematically Inactive Across Financial Decisions? Linking Evidence from Mortgage and Retirement Saving Decisions

Henrik Yde Andersen, Camilla Skovbo Christensen, Claus Kreiner and Leth-Petersen, Søren

20609: Effective Tax Rates, Firm Size and the Global Minimum Tax

Pierre Bachas, Anne Brockmeyer, Roel Dom and Camille Semelet

20608: Algorithms and Bureaucrats: Evidence from Tax Audit Selection in Senegal

Pierre Bachas, Anne Brockmeyer, Alipio Ferreira and Bassirou Sarr

20607: International Climate News

Arteaga-Garavito, María José, Ric Colacito, Mariano Croce and Biao Yang

20606: The Effect of Education Policy on Crime: An Intergenerational Perspective

Ulrika Ahrsjo, Costas Meghir, Marten Palme and Marieke Schnabel

20605: Business Cycles with Pricing Cascades

Mishel Ghassibe and Anton Nakov

20604: The Dynamics of Informality and Fiscal Policy under Sovereign Risk

Francesco Pappadà and Yanos Zylberberg

20603: Misperception and Informativeness in Statistical Discrimination

Escudé, Matteo, Paula Onuchic, Ludvig Sinander and Valenzuela-Stookey, Quitzé

20602: Management and Firm Dynamism

Raffaella Sadun, Rachel Schuh, Jonathan Hartley, John van Reenen and Nicholas Bloom

20601: Trade Sanctions

Konstantin Egorov, Vasily Korovkin, Alexey Makarin and Dzhamilya Nigmatulina

20600: Structural Transformation and Productivity in Asia: An Overview

León-Ledesma, Miguel

20599: Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability When Households are not Ricardian

Dupraz, Stéphane and Anna Rogantini Picco

20598: The Political Extremes and Innovation: How Support for Extreme Parties Shapes Overall and Green Scientific Research and Technol

Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, Zhuoying You and Peter Teirlinck

20597: Does the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Help to Explain the US Economy?

Vo Phuong Mai Le, David Meenagh, Patrick Minford and Michael R. Wickens

20596: The Future of Foreign Trade

Elhanan Helpman

20595: Firm Ownership and Pollution

Tsz Chun Kwok, Daniel Spiro and Arthur van Benthem

20594: Does Risk Shape Economies? Income Volatility and Structural Change

Fenicia Cossu, Alessio Moro and Andrea Mottola

20593: Unpacking the Distributional Implications of the Energy Crisis: Lessons from the Iberian Electricity Market

Natalia Fabra, Clement Leblanc and Mateus Souza

20592: An Anatomy of Urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa

Pierre-Philippe Combes, Clement Gorin, Shohei Nakamura and Mark Roberts

20591: The First Numbers of the Americas

Leticia Arroyo Abad and Jose-Antonio Espin-Sanchez

20590: General Laws and the Emergence of Durable Political Parties: The Case of Pennsylvania

Naomi Lamoreaux and John Wallis

20589: The Price of Delay: Supply Chain Disruptions and Pricing Dynamics

Salome Baslandze and Simon Fuchs

20588: Speaking of Debt: Framing, Guilt, and Economic Choices

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Mathias Dolls, Justyna Klejdysz, Andreas Peichl and Lisa Windsteiger

20587: Skewness Risk Premia and the Cross-Section of Currency Returns

Junye Li, Lucio Sarno and Gabriele Zinna

20586: Maternal Investments in Children: The Role of Expected Effort and Returns

Sonia Bhalotra, Adeline Delavande, Paulino Font and Joanna Maselko

20585: Antidepressant Treatment in Childhood

Sonia Bhalotra, Meltem Daysal and Mircea Trandafir

20584: Corporate Hierarchy

Michael Ewens and Xavier Giroud

20583: Stablecoins and the Future of Money: Economic Principles and Policy Implications

Peter Bofinger

20582: Monopsony, Income Risk and R∗ Multiplicity

Federica Romei, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Sergio de Ferra, Andrea Ferrero, Alexandre Kohlhas, Michael McMahon and Giovanni Rosso

20581: Religion in Emerging and Developing Regions

Sara Lowes, Benjamin Marx and Eduardo Montero

20580: Foreign Currency Debt and Disagreement

Kenza Benhima, Isabella Blengini and Ouarda Merrouche

20579: Hyperbolic Discounting with Random Gratification

Facundo Piguillem and Liyan Shi

20578: Climate Politics in the United States

Matilde Bombardini, Frederico Finan, Nicolas Longuet-Marx, Suresh Naidu and Francesco Trebbi

20577: Granular Markups and Inflation Surge: The Role of Managerial Incentives

Yuchen Chen, Juliana Salomao, Varun Sharma and Yicheng Wang

20576: A Simple Theory of Economic Development at the Extensive Industry Margin

Dario Diodato, Ricardo Hausmann and Ulrich Schetter

20575: How do you Identify a Good Manager?

Ben Weidmann, Joseph Vecci, Farah Said, Sonia Bhalotra, Achyut Adharvyu, Anant Nyshadham, Jorge Tamayo and David Deming

20574: Inflation Factors

Danilo Leiva-Leon, Slavik Sheremirov, Jenny Tang and Zakrajšek, Egon

20573: Optimal Merger Remedies

Volker Nocke and Andrew Rhodes

20572: Trajectories of Early Childhood Skill Development and Maternal Mental Health

Dilek Sevim, Victoria Baranov, Sonia Bhalotra, Joanna Maselko and Pietro Biroli

20571: Optimal Tariffs with Geopolitical Alignment

John Becko, Gene M. Grossman and Elhanan Helpman

20570: Leaving the “Fourth Shoreâ€: The Effect of Italian Farmers’ Expulsions from Post-Colonial Libya, 1930-2005

Mattia Bertazzini

20569: Flora, Cosmos, Salvatio: Pre-modern Academic Institutions and the Spread of Ideas

David De La Croix, Rossana Scebba and Chiara Zanardello

20568: The Rise of Discounters and its Impact on Concentration, Market Power and Welfare

Martin O'Connell, Howard Smith and Oyvind Thomassen

20567: Bitcoin Arbitrage: The Role of a Single Exchange

Ethan Flowerday, Neil Gandal, Hanna Halaburda, Eric Olson and Gabriela Ardel

20566: How Does Wage Inequality Affect The Labor Movement?

Barbara Biasi, Cullen, Zöe, Julia Gilman and Nina Roussille

20565: Accounting Under Pressure: How Accounting Rules Shape Bond Prices and Firm Investment Post Crises

John Barrios, Andreas Neuhierl and Linda Schilling

20564: The Fragmentation Paradox: De-Risking Trade and Global Safety

Thierry Mayer, Isabelle Mejean and Mathias Thoenig

20563: Tastes, Geography and Culture

Eve Colson-Sihra, José De Sousa and Thierry Mayer

20562: A Cost-Benefit Approach to Optimizing Security Precaution Adoption

Noa Barnir, Neil Gandal, Tyler Moore and Vincent Scott

20561: Supply Chain Disruptions: the Propagation and Economic Costs of ESG Shocks

Vicente Bermejo, Erfan Ghofrani and Carolina Villegas-Sanchez

20560: Uncovering Economic Policy Uncertainty During Conflict

Sophie Brochet, Hannes Mueller and Christopher Rauh

20559: Breaking the Echo Chamber: Social Media Networks and Political Conflict

Menéndez, Luis, Daniel Montolio, Hannes Mueller and Francesco Slataper

20558: From Tailwinds to Headwinds: Emerging and Developing Economies in the Twenty-First Century

Mirco Balatti, Ayhan Kose, Kate Frances Mckinnon, Edoardo Palombo, Naotaka Sugawara, Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos and Dana Vorisek

20557: What Do (Thousands of) Union Do? Union-Specific Pay Premia and Inequality

Ellora Derenoncourt, Francois Gerard, Lorenzo Lagos and Claire Montialoux

20556: Transplanting Craft Guilds to Colonial Latin America: A Large Language Model Analysis

Niclas Griesshaber and Sheilagh Ogilvie

20555: Sudden Stops, Productivity, and the Exchange Rate

Laura Castillo-Martinez

20554: The Global Gender Distortions Index (GGDI)

Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Charles Gottlieb, Somik Lall, Meet Mehta, Michael Peters and Aishwarya Lakshmi Ratan

20553: Shifting Preferences. Prices for den Oude and den Helschen Breughel during the Long Eighteenth century

Anne-Sophie Radermecker and Kim Oosterlinck

20552: Tradition Meets Innovation: Monasteries and the Adoption of Printing Technology

Guillaume Wegmueller and Nathan Sussman

20551: Measuring Democracy Using the Wisdom of the Crowds

Nathan Canen and Anujit Chakraborty

20550: When is Less More? Bank Arrangements for Liquidity vs Central Bank Support

Viral Acharya, Raghuram Rajan and Shu, Zhi Quan (Bill)

20549: Masculinity Norms and Their Economic Implications

Ieda Matavelli, Pauline Grosjean, Ralph De Haas and Victoria Baranov