The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty

Konstantinos Gavriilidis, Känzig, Diego, Ramya Raghavan and James Stock

No 21146, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We develop a novel measure of climate policy uncertainty based on newspaper coverage. Our index spikes during key U.S. climate policy events — including presidential announcements on international agreements, congressional debates, and regulatory disputes — and shows a recent upward trend. Using an instrument for plausibly exogenous uncertainty shifts, we find that higher climate policy uncertainty decreases output and emissions while raising commodity and consumer prices, acting as supply rather than demand shocks. Faced with this trade-off, monetary policy does not accommodate climate policy uncertainty shocks, shaping their transmission. Firm-level analyses show stronger declines in investment and R&D when firms have higher climate change exposure.

Keywords: Climate; policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D80 E66 H23 L50 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02
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