CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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11847: Who Receives Medicaid in Old Age? Rules and Reality

Mariacristina De Nardi, Margherita Borella and Eric French

11846: The End of Alchemy: A Review Essay

Roger Farmer

11845: The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem

Emmanuel Farhi and David Baqaee

11844: Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

Rebelo, Sérgio, Martin Eichenbaum and Benjamin Johannsen

11843: Activism, Strategic Trading, and Liquidity

Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Kerry E. Back, Vyacheslav Fos, Tao Li and Alexander Ljungqvist

11842: "Low-For-Long†Interest Rates and Banks’ Interest Margins and Profitability: Cross-Country Evidence

Stijn Claessens, Nicholas Coleman and Michael Donnelly

11841: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth: An Assessment based on Production and Consumption Emission Inventories

Joseph Francois, Fernández-Amador, Octavio, Doris Oberdabernig and Patrick Tomberger

11840: Democracy and Credit “Democracy Doesn`t Come Cheap†But At Least Credit to Its Corporations Will Be

Steven Ongena, Manthos Delis and Iftekhar Hasan

11839: International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles

Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, Julian di Giovanni, Mehmet Ulu and Yusuf Baskaya

11838: Risk-sharing benefits and the capital structure of insurance companies

Hans Degryse, Cynthia Van Hulle and Kristien Smedts

11837: Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade

Alexander Wagner, Richard Zeckhauser and Alexandre Ziegler

11836: The Global Role of the U.S. Economy: Linkages, Policies and Spillovers

Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Csilla Lakatos and Marc Stocker

11835: When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in interwar Britain

Kevin O'Rourke, Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough and Markus Lampe

11834: Central Bank Policies and the Debt Trap

Athanasios Orphanides

11833: Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia: Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns to Capital, Earnings Yields

Emmanuel Farhi, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Ricardo Caballero

11832: Revisiting the Commodity Curse: A Financial Perspective

Gianluca Benigno and Enrique Alberola

11831: The World We Live In: Local or Global?

Kees Koedijk, Ronald Mahieu, Joris van Toor and Jenke Horst

11830: The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar US Housing Credit Policy

Morten Ravn, Karel Mertens and Andrew Fieldhouse

11829: The Consumption Response to Positive and Negative Income Changes

Paolo Surico, Philip Bunn, Kate Reinold and Jeanne LeRoux

11828: Rethinking Detroit

Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre Daniel Sarte and Raymond Owens

11827: Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel

Julian di Giovanni, Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, Peydró, José-Luis, Yusuf Baskaya and Mehmet Ulu

11826: Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?

Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

11825: Human Capital Acquisition and Occupational Choice: Implications for Economic Development

Martí Mestieri, Johanna Schauer and Robert Townsend

11824: Are the Spanish Long-Term Unemployed Unemployable?

Samuel Bentolila, J. Ignacio García Pérez and Marcel Jansen

11823: Global Banking: Recent Developments and Insights from Research

Stijn Claessens

11822: Regulation and structural change in financial systems

Stijn Claessens

11821: The Role of Foreign Banks in Trade

Stijn Claessens, Neeltje Van Horen and Omar Hassib

11820: Tax design in the alcohol market

Rachel Griffith, Martin O'Connell and Kate Smith

11819: Testing part of a DSGE model by Indirect Inference

A. Patrick Minford, Michael R. Wickens and Yongdeng Xu

11818: A note on news about the future: the impact on DSGE models and their VAR representation

A. Patrick Minford, David Meenagh and Vo Phuong Mai Le

11817: What is the truth about DSGE models? Testing by indirect inference

A. Patrick Minford, David Meenagh, Yongdeng Xu and Michael R. Wickens

11816: Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models

A. Patrick Minford, Michael R. Wickens and Yongdeng Xu

11815: The Explosive Combination of Religious Decentralisation and Autocracy: the Case of Islam

Emmanuelle Auriol and Jean-Philippe Platteau

11814: Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households

Florin Bilbiie and Xavier Ragot

11813: The Unexpected Consequences of Asymmetric Competition. An Application to Big Pharma

Georges Siotis, Micael Castanheira, Maria-Angeles de Frutos and Carmine Ornaghi

11812: Is Global Equality the Enemy of National Equality?

Dani Rodrik

11811: The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration

Manuel Adelino, Miguel Ferreira and Igor Cunha

11810: Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share

David Dorn, David Autor, Lawrence Katz, Christina Patterson and John van Reenen

11809: Firm-Related Risk and Precautionary Saving Response

Luigi Guiso, Luigi Pistaferri and Andreas Fagereng

11808: Social Media and Political Donations: New Technology and Incumbency Advantage in the United States

Maria Petrova, Pinar Yildirim and Ananya Sen

11807: Post Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory

Roger Farmer

11806: Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns

Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, Servén, Luis, Stefan Avdjiev and Bryan Hardy

11805: Backtesting European Stress Tests

Thomas Philippon, Boubacar Camara and Pierre Pessarossi

11804: The Recent Growth Boom in Developing Economies: A Structural-Change Perspective

Dani Rodrik, Xinshen Diao and Margaret McMillan

11803: Efficient Lemons

Wolf Wagner and Burak Uras

11802: Comparing Alternative Policies Against Environmental Catastrophes

Timothy Besley and Avinash Dixit

11801: The effects of quasi-random monetary experiments

Alan Taylor, Moritz Schularick and Oscar Jorda

11800: Rage Against the Machines: Labor-Saving Technology and Unrest in Industrializing England

Hans-Joachim Voth and Bruno Caprettini

11799: Regulatory harmonization, profits, and productivity: Firm-level evidence from Morocco

Olivier Cadot, Patricia Augier and Marion Dovis

11798: Signaling in Contests

Aner Sela

11797: Women's career choices, social norms and child care policies

Helmuth Cremer, Francesca Barigozzi and Kerstin Roeder

11796: Foreign Banks and International Transmission of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Syndicated Loan Market

Harry Huizinga, Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli and Horváth, Bálint

11795: WITHDRAWN PAPER

Ewout Frankema and Kostadis Papaioannou

11794: Political Determinants of Competition in the Mobile Telecommunication Industry

Luigi Zingales and Mara Faccio

11793: How Antitrust Enforcement Can Spur Innovation: Bell Labs and the 1956 Consent Decree

Monika Schnitzer, Martin Watzinger, Thomas Fackler and Markus Nagler

11792: Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?

Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian

11791: Trade and Manufacturing Jobs in Germany

Südekum, Jens, Sebastian Findeisen and Wolfgang Dauth

11790: Menu costs, the price gap distribution and monetary non-neutrality: The role of financial constraints

Almut Balleer, Nikolay Hristov and Dominik Menno

11789: Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

Guy Michaels and Georg Graetz

11788: Debt Overhang, Exchange Rates and the Macroeconomics of Carry Trade

Sweder van Wijnbergen and Egle Jakucionyte

11787: Israel’s Triumph over Inflation: The Long and Winding Road

Assaf Razin

11786: Behavioral Economics and the Atheoretical Style

Ran Spiegler

11785: Asymmetric information and the securitization of SME loans

Leonardo Gambacorta, Ugo Albertazzi, Margherita Bottero and Steven Ongena

11784: The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries

Barbara Petrongolo and Claudia Olivetti

11783: Optimal Auction Design in a Common Value Model

Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks and Stephen Morris

11782: First Price Auctions with General Information Structures: Implications for Bidding and Revenue

Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks and Stephen Morris

11781: Moving on Towards a Workable Climate Regime

Jaime de Melo

11780: Fiscal policy coordination in currency unions at the effective lower bound

Müller, Gernot

11779: Child-Related Transfers, Household Labor Supply and Welfare

Nezih Guner, Gustavo Ventura and Remzi Kaygusuz

11778: Why Does China Allow Freer Social Media? Protests versus Surveillance and Propaganda

Strömberg, David, Bei Qin and Yanhui Wu

11777: The Logic of Hereditary Rule: Theory and Evidence

Timothy Besley and Marta Reynal-Querol

11776: The Impact of Export Promotion on Export Market Entry

Johannes Van Biesebroeck and ,

11775: Regression Discontinuity Design with Continuous Measurement Error in the Running Variable

Thomas Le Barbanchon and Laurent Davezies

11774: On measuring welfare changes when varieties are endogenous

Kristian Behrens, Yasusada Murata and Yoshitsugu Kanemoto

11773: Competition and hospital quality: Evidence from a French natural experiment

Laurent Gobillon and Carine Milcent

11772: Confirmation Bias and Electoral Accountability

Ben Lockwood

11771: The Origins and Extent of Entrepreneurial Action-Orientedness: An Experimental Study

Mirjam Praag, Randolph Sloof and Ahmad Barirani

11770: Early Cannabis Use and School to Work Transition of Young Men

Jan C. van Ours and Jenny Williams

11769: Extracting Information or Resource? The Hotelling Rule Revisited under Asymmetric Information

Jerome Pouyet, David Martimort and Francesco Ricci

11768: Inheritance Flows in Switzerland, 1911-2011

Brülhart, Marius, Didier Dupertuis and Elodie Moreau

11767: Social Mobility among Christian Africans: Evidence from Anglican Marriage Registers in Uganda, 1895-2011

Jacob Weisdorf, Felix Meier zu Selhausen and Marco van Leeuwen

11766: Threshold Contracts

Hans Gersbach and Johannes Gerd Becker

11765: Can grants to consortia spur innovation and science-industry collaboration? Regression-discontinuity evidence from Poland

David McKenzie and Miriam Bruhn

11764: Can Enhancing the Benefits of Formalization Induce Informal Firms to Become Formal? Experimental Evidence from Benin

David McKenzie, Najy Benhassine, Victor Pouliquen and Massimiliano Santini

11763: Network Capital

Robert Akerlof and Richard Holden

11762: From Proof of Concept to Scalable Policies: Challenges and Solutions, with an Application

Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee, Rukmini Banerji, James Berry, Harini Kannan, Shobhini Mukerji, Michael Walton and Marc Shotland

11761: E-governance, Accountability, and Leakage in Public Programs: Experimental Evidence from a Financial Management Reform in India

Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee, Clément Imbert, Santhosh Mathew and Rohini Pande

11760: Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900

Nancy Qian, Murat Iyigun and Nathan Nunn

11759: Top wealth shares in the UK over more than a century

Facundo Alvaredo, Anthony Atkinson and Salvatore Morelli

11758: Historical Roots of Political Extremism: The Effects of Nazi Occupation of Italy

Guido Tabellini, Tommaso Nannicini and Nicola Fontana

11757: The local effects of an innovation: Evidence from the French fish market

Laurent Gobillon and François-Charles Wolff

11756: Australian Exceptionalism? Inequality and Living Standards 1821-1871

Jeffrey Williamson and Laura Panza

11755: The Rise of American Ingenuity: Innovation and Inventors of the Golden Age

Ufuk Akcigit, John Grigsby and Tom Nicholas

11754: Ambiguous Policy Announcements

Luigi Paciello and Claudio Michelacci

11753: Price Dynamics with Customer Markets

Luigi Paciello, Andrea Pozzi and Nicholas Trachter

11752: Childlessness, Celibacy and Net Fertility in Pre-Industrial England: The Middle-class Evolutionary Advantage

Eric Schneider, David de la Croix and Jacob Weisdorf

11751: Killer Incentives: Status Competition and Pilot Performance during World War II

Hans-Joachim Voth, Philipp Ager and Leonardo Bursztyn

11750: Shipping inside the Box: Containerization and Trade

A. Kerem Coşar and Banu Demir

11749: Threshold-based forward guidance: hedging the zero bound

Lena Boneva, Richard Harrison and Matt Waldron

11748: Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports

Andrew Rose