CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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21250: Work from Home and Fertility

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Katelyn Cranney, Steven Davis, Mathias Dolls and Pablo Zarate

21249: Geography and Economic Development (revisited)

Pascaline Dupas

21248: Artificial Intelligence and Monetary Policy: A Framework and Perspective on Cyclical Transmission, Structural Transition, and

Simone Lenzu

21247: Quantitative Trade with Ships

Sonali Chowdhry, Inga Heiland and Hendrik Mahlkow

21246: The Politics of Carbon Pricing: Young vs. Old, Debtors vs. Creditors

Armon Rezai and Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg

21245: Parental Beliefs, Engagement, and Time Investments in Preschoolers

Margherita Fort, Maria Bigoni, Stefania Bortolotti, Roberto Caputo, Annalisa Guarini, Daniela Iorio, Chiara Monfardini, Alessandra Sansavini and Chiara Suttora

21244: Beyond Oil: The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations

Alvin Lumbanraja, Sarah Mouabbi, Evgenia Passari and Adrien Rousset Planat

21243: How Do Interest Rates Affect Consumption? Household Debt and the Role of Asset Prices

Angus Foulis, Jonathon Hazell, Atif Mian and Belinda Tracey

21242: Changing Culture and Norms in Developing Countries

Eliana La Ferrara and David Yanagizawa-Drott

21241: The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations

Michael Ehrmann and Paul Hubert

21240: Retail Price Parity as a Channel-Coordination Mechanism in Dual Distribution

Michele Bisceglia, Mark Israel, Salvatore Piccolo and Paolo Ramezzana

21239: Regional Favoritism: New Data, Larger Sample, Same Pattern

Düben, Christian, Roland Hodler and Paul Raschky

21238: Granular Sentiments

Rustam Jamilov, Alexandre Kohlhas, Oleksandr Talavera and Mao Zhang

21237: Too Much Finance Redux

Jean-Louis Arcand, Enrico Berkes and Ugo Panizza

21236: Forecasting Crashes with a Smile

Ian Martin and Ran Shi

21235: On the Moments of the Stochastic Discount Factor

Ian Martin and Ran Shi

21234: Making the Invisible Hand Visible: Managers and the Allocation of Workers to Jobs

Virginia Minni

21233: Why People Disagree About What Drives Stock Prices

Andy Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri

21232: Competition and Collusion with Strategic Inventories

Marium Ashfaq, Flavio Toxvaerd and Yi Wei

21231: Trade Liberalization and Third-Market Effects

Fabrice Defever and Emanuel Ornelas

21230: (How) Do Health Shocks Reallocate Research Direction?

Hongyu Zhou, Prashant Garg and Thiemo Fetzer

21229: Inequality, Informality, and Optimal Progressivity

Oscar Becerra, Luigi-Maria Briglia, John León-Díaz, Valencia, Óscar and Ralph Luetticke

21228: Science under Threat? A Natural Experiment in Economics

Dominic Rohner, Oliver Vanden Eynde and Philine Widmer

21227: Sex, Lies and Birth Statistics: The Mysterious Case of the Spanish Missing Women

Manuel Bagues and Carmen Villa

21226: Ownership Dynamics and Firm Policies with a Large Shareholder

Sebastian Gryglewicz, Simon Mayer and Erwan Morellec

21225: Investor Activism and the Green Transition

Sebastian Gryglewicz, Simon Mayer and Erwan Morellec

21224: The Effect of Retaining High-Skilled International Graduates: Evidence from the STEM OPT Extension

Seoyoung Kwon, Jongkwan Lee and Joan Monras

21223: On the Design of Effective Sanctions: The Case of Bans on Exports to Russia

Ricardo Hausmann, Ulrich Schetter and Yıldırım, Muhammed A.

21222: Towards a Sustainable Recovery for Lebanon’s Economy

Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza, Carmen Reinhart, Douglas Barrios, Clement Brenot, Jesus Enrique Daboin Pacheco, Clemens Graf von Luckner, Frank Muci and Lucila Venturi

21221: The Economics of Tariffs

Ralph Ossa and Stephen Redding

21220: A Cost-Benefit Approach to Optimizing Security Precaution Adoption

Noa Barnir, Neil Gandal, Tyler Moore and Vincent Scott

21219: The Impact of Ransomware Attacks on Security Portfolios: Firm-Level Panel Data

Abulfaz Hajizada, Dana Etgar Itzhaki, Noa Barnir, Tyler Moore and Neil Gandal

21218: Financial Shocks, Productivity, and Prices

Simone Lenzu, David Rivers, Joris Tielens and Shi Hu

21217: Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and during Inflation Surges

Luca Gagliardone, Mark Gertler, Simone Lenzu and Joris Tielens

21216: Unconditional Cash Transfers: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Randomized Evaluations in Low and Middle Income Countries

Tommaso Crosta, Dean Karlan, Finley Ong, Julius Ruschenpohler and Christopher Udry

21215: Persistence in a Changing World. Gold Backing and Monetary Policy Autonomy Under Bretton Woods

Eric Monnet

21214: Direct Gaussian Process Predictive Regressions with Mixed Frequency Data

Niko Hauzenberger, Massimiliano Marcellino, Michael Pfarrhofer and Anna Stelzer

21213: Severe Weather and Financial (In)stability

Claudia Foroni, Paolo Gelain, Marco Lorusso and Massimiliano Marcellino

21212: Misallocation with Lumpy Investment

Aleksei Oskolkov and Francesco Lippi

21211: Strategic Complementarities in a Dynamic Model of Technology Adoption: P2P Digital Payments

Fernando Alvarez, David Argente, Francesco Lippi, Méndez, Esteban and Diana Van Patten

21210: A Class of Singular Control Problems with Tipping Points

Décamps, Jean-Paul, Fabien Gensbittel, Thomas Mariotti and Villeneuve, Stéphane

21209: Digital Ecosystems and Data Regulation

Andrew Rhodes, Jidong Zhou and Junjie Zhou

21208: Not-so-Cleansing-Recessions

Igli Bajo, Frederik Bennhoff and Alessandro Ferrari

21207: Minimum Wages, Earnings, and Worker–Firm Sorting

Suphanit Piyapromdee, Tanisa Tawichsri and Nada Wasi

21206: Modern Communication Technologies, Protests, and Service Blocking

Maxim Ananyev, Maria Petrova, Dimitrios Xefteris and Galina Zudenkova

21205: Low Frequency Movements and SVAR Analyses

Fabio Canova and Luca Fosso

21204: Remittances, Trade Deficit, and Output Dynamics in Nepal

Bongers, Anelí, Fabio Canova, Kul Luintel and Torres, José Luis

21203: Intertemporal MPC and Shock Size

Tullio Jappelli, Ettore Savoia and Alessandro Sciacchetano

21202: Nonparametric Identification of Demand without Exogenous Product Characteristics

Kirill Borusyak, Jiafeng Chen, Peter Hull and Lihua Lei

21201: Managers and the Cultural Transmission of Gender Norms

Virginia Minni, Kieutrang Nguyen, Heather Sarsons and Carla Srebot

21200: New Technology and Entrepreneurship

Hans K. Hvide and Tom G. Meling

21199: Regulatory Reform and Opportunistic Insider Trading

Anantha Divakaruni, Hedda Rytter Tveiten and Hans K. Hvide

21198: Cross-Border Spillovers: How U.S. Monetary Conditions Affect M&As Around the World

Katharina Bergant, Prachi Mishra, Raghuram Rajan and Freddy Pinzon-Puerto

21197: Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty

Anastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev and Poilly, Céline

21196: Religion and the Wealth of Nations after 250 Years

Sascha O. Becker

21195: Rain-fed Cisterns Reduce Migration and Mortality in the Brazilian Semi-arid

Diogo Britto, Imbert, Clément, Breno Sampaio, Gabriel Ulyssea and Alexandre Fonseca

21194: Matching, Management and Employment Outcomes: A Field Experiment with Firm Internships

Girum Abebe, Marcel Fafchamps, Michael Koelle and Simon Quinn

21193: Guns and Butter: The Fiscal Consequences of Rearmament and War

Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch

21192: Geoeconomics and Conflict: A Review and Open Questions

Eoin McGuirk and Christoph Trebesch

21191: Internal Pay Equity and the Quantity-Quality Trade-Off in Hiring

Michael Amior and Shmuel San

21190: Transparency and the Visibility of Misconduct: Evidence from ESG Disclosure Mandates

Erdinc Akyildirim, Giray Gözgör, Thang Ho and Alexander F. Wagner

21189: Monetary Policy Under Okun's Hypothesis

Felipe Alves and Giovanni L. Violante

21188: Inflation vs Inclusion: Stabilization Policy in the Wake of the Pandemic

Felipe Alves and Giovanni L. Violante

21187: When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Businesses

André Kurmann, Lalé, Étienne and Julien Martin

21186: Economic Growth when Knowledge is Concentrated

Andrea Guccione and Pau Roldan-Blanco

21185: The Role of Firms and Job Mobility in the Assimilation of Immigrants: Former Soviet Union Jews in Israel 1990–2019

Jaime Arellano-Bover and Shmuel San

21184: Industrial policies for multi-stage production: The battle for battery-powered vehicles

Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, Marc J Melitz and Chenying Yang

21183: Narratives as Separating Equilibria: On the Origins of the Ukraine War

Giacomo Corneo

21182: Impact Matters for Giving at Checkout

Susan Athey, Matias Cerosimo, Dean Karlan, Kristine Koutout and Henrike Steimer

21181: Estimating Impact with Surveys versus Digital Traces: Evidence from Randomized Cash Transfers in Togo

Emily Aiken, Suzanne Bellue, Joshua Blumenstock, Dean Karlan and Christopher Udry

21180: Give me a Pass: Flexible Credit for Entrepreneurs in Colombia

Lasse Brune, Xavier Gine and Dean Karlan

21179: Improving Smallholder Agriculture via Video-Based Group Extension

Tushi Baul, Dean Karlan, Kentaro Toyama and Kathryn Vasilaky

21178: Human Capital at Home: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in the Philippines

Noam Angrist, Sarah Kabay, Dean Karlan, Lincoln Lau and Kevin Wong

21177: Access to Digital Credit for Smallholder Farmers: Experimental Evidence from Ghana

Dean Karlan, Monica Lambon-Quayefio, Utsav Manjeer and Christopher Udry

21176: Does Q&A Boost Engagement? Health Messaging Experiments in the U.S. and Ghana

Erika Kirgios, Susan Athey, Angela Duckworth, Dean Karlan, Michael Luca, Katherine Milkman and Molly Offer-Westort

21175: Unconditional Cash Transfers: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Randomized Evaluations in Low and Middle Income Countries

Tommaso Crosta, Dean Karlan, Finley Ong, Julius Ruschenpohler and Christopher Udry

21174: Great Expectations: Responses to Current and Future Transfers for Low-Income Individuals

Achyuta Adhvaryu, Gauthier, Jean-François, Pamela Jakiela and Dean Karlan

21173: Geopolitics in the Evaluation of International Scientific Collaboration

Alexander Furnas, Ruixue Jia, Margaret Roberts and Dashun Wang

21172: Automation, Recessions, and Production Networks

Marc Klemp

21171: Random Connections and Violence in the French Revolution

Brenda Van Coppenolle and Oliver Vanden Eynde

21170: Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Conflict

Oliver Vanden Eynde and Juan Vargas

21169: When Loss Strikes Twice: Severe Health Shocks and Financial Well-Being

Kaveh Majlesi, Elin Molin and Paula Roth

21168: Social Media vs. Democracy: Evidence from the January 6th Insurrection

Müller, Karsten, Carlo Schwarz and Zekai Shen

21167: Menstrual Stigma and Human Capital: Experimental Evidence from Madagascar

Karen Macours, Julieta Vera Rueda and Duncan Webb

21166: Why Do Firms Pay Different Interest Rates on Their Bank Loans?

Mary Amiti, Anil K Kashyap, Anna Kovner and David Weinstein

21165: Putting the 'Finance' into 'Public Finance': A Theory of Capital Gains Taxation

Mark Aguiar, Benjamin Moll and Florian Scheuer

21164: A Unified Urban Model With Non-Homothetic Housing Demand

Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, Pierre-Philippe Combes, Gilles Duranton and Laurent Gobillon

21163: Self-Enforcing Tax Design and Supply Chain Formalization: Evidence from India’s GST Reform

Megha Patnaik

21162: Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks

Alexander Chudik and Lutz Kilian

21161: Financial Dominance and Macroeconomic Expectations

Martin Wolf and Leopold Zessner-Spitzenberg

21160: Fiscal Monitoring with VARs

Jacopo Cimadomo, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Francesca Monti and Andrej Sokol

21159: Deflationary Equilibrium with Uncertainty

Philip Coyle, Naoki Maezono, Taisuke Nakata and Sebastian Schmidt

21158: Academic Human Capital in European Countries and Regions, 1200–1793

Matthew Curtis, David De La Croix, Filippo Manfredini and Mara Vitale

21157: Stimulating Avenues: EIB Loans and Returns to Public Investment

Morteza Ghomi and Evi Pappa

21156: State-Dependent Pass-Through with Heterogeneous Exposure to Common Shocks

Raphael Lafrogne-Joussier, Julien Martin and Isabelle Mejean

21155: The Economic Impact of Mass Deportations

Javier Cravino, Andrei Levchenko, Francesc Ortega and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

21154: The Agency and Wholesale Models When a Platform Can Charge Entry Fees

Marie-Laure Allain, Marc Bourreau and Moraga-González, José-Luis

21153: Climate Change, Climate Policy, and the Macroeconomy

Frederick (Rick) van der Ploeg and Armon Rezai

21152: Regulation by Public Options: Evidence from Pension Funds

Pablo Blanchard, Sebastian Fleitas and González Valdenegro, Rodrigo

21151: Private Money and Money Market Integration: The Role of Payments Infrastructure in 19th Century Switzerland

Rebecca Stuart and Daniel Kaufmann