CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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21888: When the Middle Class Undermines Progress: The Political Economy of AI Regulation

Konstantin Sonin

21887: Subjective Expectations of Husbands and Wives and Couples’ Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Aureo de Paula and Christine Valente

21886: The Allocative Cost of War: A View to a Kill…ing of Productivity

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Oleksandr Talavera and Marvin Amann

21885: Fluctuations in the Treasury General Account and their effect on the Fed’s balance sheet

Vissing-Jørgensen, Annette

21884: Downton Revisited: Income Shocks and Aristocratic Marriage Markets, 1840–1913

Mark Taylor

21883: Activation Costs, Fair Value, and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment

Mark Taylor

21882: Training Novices to Think, or Giving Them LLMs? Evidence from an RCT

Hemath Asirvatham, Chiara Betti, Rachel Brown, Arnaldo Camuffo, Aaron Chatterji, Chiara Fumagalli, Alfonso Gambardella, Myriam Mariani, Abhinav Pandey, Steve Ramos, Giovanni Salvucci and Vladimir Simic

21881: Beyond the Smokestack: Supply Chains and the Industrial Incidence of Net Zero

Eric Jondeau, Côme Poirier and Gauthier Vermandel

21880: A Deep Case for Shallow Integration

John Becko and Arnaud Costinot

21879: Differing environmental preferences, fiscal competition, and taxation of goods and pollution

Chiara Canta, Helmuth Cremer and Firouz Gahvari

21878: A Model of Global Firms and Capital Markets

Loukas Karabarbounis, Bruno Pellegrino and Juliana Salomao

21877: What the Iran War Teaches Us about the Price Elasticity of Oil Supply

Lutz Kilian and Kunal Patel

21876: Productivity and Inflation Dynamics

Maria Ludovica Ambrosino, Jenny Chan and Silvana Tenreyro

21875: To Tax or To Ax? Marginal Tax and Spending Multipliers in Consolidations

Roberto Perotti and Luca Sala

21874: This Time Is (Mostly) Different: U.S. Tightening Cycles and Global Resilience in the 1980s vs 2020s

Drishan Banerjee, Galina Hale and Harrison Shieh

21873: Market Power, Growth, and Wealth Inequality

Giammario Impullitti and Pontus Rendahl

21872: Immiserizing Automation

Vladimir Asriyan, Hugo Reichardt and Sandro Shelegia

21871: Firm Productivity and the Internal-Versus-External Hiring Decision

Ricardo Alonso, Jed DeVaro, Antti Kauhanen and Nelli Valmari

21870: Cultural Evolution

Oded Galor, Marc Klemp and Daniel C. Wainstock

21869: Paying Not to Know: News Avoidance in Times of War

Ro'ee Levy, Moses Shayo and Guy Yanay

21868: News Consumption in the Digital Age

Francesco Capozza, Ingar Haaland, Christopher Roth and Johannes Wohlfart

21867: AI in a Fragmenting World

Barry Eichengreen, Cui, Jingyuan(George), Asmaa El Ganainy, Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Elyad Shojaei, Li Zeng and Shihangyin Zhang

21866: Incomplete Insurance and Open-Economy Spillovers of Labor Market Reforms

Brigitte Hochmuth, Christian Merkl and Stüber, Heiko

21865: Coal Supply Chains and Electricity Reliability

Imelda Imelda and Suchita Srinivasan

21864: Falling Fertility: The Changing Value of Freedom, Fulfillment, and Family

Fernández, Raquel, Inés Berniell and Milagros Onofri

21863: Changing Gender Norms across Generations: Evidence from a Paternity Leave Reform

Farré, Lidia, Christina Felfe, Libertad Gonzalez and Patrick Schneider

21862: Survival and Financial Literacy in Investment Decisions Later in Life

Chiara Dal Bianco, Francesco Maura, Francesca Parodi and Guglielmo Weber

21861: Cautious Careers: Job Mobility under Incomplete Markets

Alex Clymo, Piotr Denderski, Yusuf Mercan and Benjamin Schoefer

21860: Cognitive Training for Jobseekers: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Benghalem, Hélène, Bächli, Mirjam, Doriana Tinello, Sascha Zuber, Mauro Cherubini, Damaris Aschwanden, Matthias Kliegel, Rafael Lalive and Michele Pellizzari

21859: The Power of Substitution: Short-Run Electricity Demand Flexibility

Martin Blomhoff Holm and Katinka Holtsmark

21858: Free to Choose: Bank Capital in Britain, 1878-1939

Gareth Campbell, Lyndon Moore and John Turner

21857: Small-Group Interactions Reduce Homophily by Muting Directed Search

Andrea Galeotti, Reem Qamar and Adam Szeidl

21856: Deceptive Science Maps: Organizational Affiliation and Data Manipulation in Alzheimer's Research

Matteo Tranchero, Christian Fons-Rosen and Lee Fleming

21855: The U.S.-China Trade War and the Geography of Global Production

Harald Fadinger, Lei Li, Sophia Praetorius and Jan Schymik

21854: Large-Load Electricity Customers and Spillovers on Household Prices: Evidence from U.S. Data Centers

Cameron Scalera, Valentina Bosetti and Filippo Pecci

21853: There is no Forward Guidance Puzzle

SeHyoun Ahn and Martin Blomhoff Holm

21852: Monetary Transmission to Firm-level R&D

Ruslana Datsenko and Martin Blomhoff Holm

21851: The Data Revolution, and Its Uses, in International Trade

David Atkin and Benjamin Faber

21850: Dust in the Wind: Causes and Consequences of Managerial Replacements

Jan C. van Ours

21849: Innovation, Industry Equilibrium, and Discount Rates

Maria Cecilia Bustamante, Francesco D'Acunto and Francesca Zucchi

21848: Credit Cycles and Creditor Rights

Martin Kornejew, Shohini Kundu and Müller, Karsten

21847: Broad and Focused Learning

Wolf Wagner and Shuo Zhao

21846: Subordinates in Charge: Does Delegation Improve Bank Supervision?

Wouter Dessein, Di Gong, Thomas Lambert and Wolf Wagner

21845: Improving Financial Literacy: From Corporate Finance to Personal Finance

Annamaria Lusardi

21844: Offshoring and Voting Patterns in the US

Anna Maria Mayda, Lindsay Oldenski and Walter Steingress

21843: Perceived Budget Constraint of the Government

Gabriele Maugeri and Dmitriy Sergeyev

21842: Building Resilience through Psychological Intervention

Michelle Escobar Carias, Victoria Baranov, Sonia Bhalotra, Pietro Biroli and Joanna Maselko

21841: Common Ownership and Collusion

Vincent Abraham, Florian Ederer and Marvão, Catarina

21840: Trust, Rule of Law, and the Size Premium: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis

Jiri Schwarz, Tomas Havranek, Zuzana Irsova and Jiri Novak

21839: The Evolving Nexus: Sovereigns, Banks and NBFIs

Stefan Avdjiev, Bryan Hardy and Maximilian Jager

21838: Microcredit Made to Measure: Experimental Evidence from Rural Morocco

Crepón, Bruno, Ralph De Haas, Tim Deisemann, Florencia Devoto and Parienté, William

21837: Reserves and the Buyer of Last Resort

Frederic Boissay and Harald Uhlig

21836: Conflicts of Interest in Banks: Evidence from Proprietary Trading

Rainer Haselmann, Christian Leuz and Sebastian Schreiber

21835: Strong Wills, Strong Outcomes? Bank Resolvability and Credit Supply

Irem Erten and Steven Ongena

21834: Overconfidence and Financial Behavior in Online Betting Markets

Lucas Belleza, Tiago Cavalcanti and Daniel Da Mata

21833: Variety and Agglomeration in Financial Markets

Ana Babus

21832: Local Trade Wars

Wei Li, Jie Ouyang, Bin Qiu, Zi Wang and Yuan Zi

21831: Communities of Commerce: The Legacy of Chinese Immigration on Java

Quoc-Anh Do, Sebastian Ellingsen and Gedeon Lim

21830: Coping with weather shocks

Marco Alfano and Görlach, Joseph-Simon

21829: World Agricultural Prices and the Onset of Civil War

Antonio Ciccone

21828: Social Clubs and Political Office

Julien Labonne, Pablo Querubin, Martín Rossi, Sebastian Saiegh, Ivan San Miguel and Shanker Satyanath

21827: Are Firms' and Governments' Emission Reduction Commitments Aligned? The European Case

Charles Goodhart, Maria Nieto and Ly Hoang Vu

21826: Fixed-Point Utilitarianism

Maya Eden

21825: Female-Targeted Hiring Subsidies, Firm Learning, and Women’s Employment

Mimosa Distefano, Lorenzo Incoronato and Anna Raute

21824: A DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy with a CBDC Option

Michael Kumhof, Mohammed Mikou and Yassine Slaoui

21823: Regulated Prices, Global Capacity, and Drug Shortages

Pierre Dubois, Gosia Majewska and Valentina Reig

21822: Wealth Tax, Entrepreneurship, and the Legal Form of Business Organization

Alessandro Di Nola, Almuth Scholl and Haomin Wang

21821: From Social Savings to Spatial Equilibrium: Evaluating Transportation Improvements in Quantitative Spatial Models

Treb Allen, Simon Fuchs and Woan Foong Wong

21820: Covered Interest Parity: The Long Run Evidence

Olivier Accominotti, David Chambers, Jason Cen and Victor Degorce

21819: Dynamic Effects of Trade

Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu and Stephen Redding

21818: Refutation-Resistant Beliefs

Lydia Mechtenberg, Dimitrios Xefteris and Galina Zudenkova

21817: Ideas and Firm Dynamics When It Takes Two to Tango

Seula Kim, Jane Olmstead-Rumsey and Honghao Wang

21816: A Currency Premium Puzzle

Tarek Hassan, Thomas Mertens and Jingye Wang

21815: Openness, Integration, and the International Monetary Order

Tarek Hassan, Thomas Mertens, Jingye Wang and Tony Zhang

21814: Meritocracy and the Networks It Forged: China's Imperial Examination

Ying Bai and Ruixue Jia

21813: Administrative litigation and public procurement outcomes: Evidence from Italy

Enza Maltese and Gabriele Rovigatti

21812: Balancing Growth in a Warming World

Adrien Bilal, Thibault Ingrand and Känzig, Diego

21811: Unfree Wills: Inheritance Rules, Bequest Motives, and Wealth Diffusion

Brülhart, Marius and Laia Soler

21810: Taxes and Transfers with Nonlinear Wage Dynamics

Nezih Guner, Eugenio Renedo and Emre Enes Yavuz

21809: Personal Holding Companies, Tax Progressivity, and Inequality

Marius Ring, David Seim and Gabriel Zucman

21808: Solar Adoption by Mandates

Stefano Carattini, Wade Davis, Figge, Béla and Anton Heimerdinger

21807: The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-through into Consumer Prices

Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein

21806: Chaste Widowhood

Melanie Meng Xue

21805: Political Capture and Bureaucratic Behavior. Evidence from Mafia-Infiltrated Municipalities

Maria Carreri, Davide Cipullo, Marco Le Moglie and Alberto Perego

21804: Understanding Firms' AI Efforts and Their Economic Impact

Tania Babina

21803: Objective vs. Perceived Corporate Greenness: Do Individuals Understand Corporate Sustainability Information?

Kornelia Fabisik and Sebastian Rink

21802: Robustness? Range Tests for Equality and Equivalence Across Specifications

David Jaeger

21801: How did Trump’s 2025 trade war affect the decoupling of US–China supply chains?

Chad Bown

21800: Sovereign Risk Shocks and Fiscal Rules

Eyquem, Aurélien, Poilly, Céline and Guillaume Schwegler

21799: The Labor Demand Implications of Brand Capital: Evidence from Trademark Transactions

Jaime Arellano-Bover, Carolina Bussotti, Matteo Paradisi and Liangjie Wu

21798: Tariff Incidence and Market Power: Evidence from the 2025 US Tariff Shock

Caroline Freund

21797: Observability and Social Interactions in Consumption

Tullio Jappelli and Luigi Pistaferri

21796: Robust Signal Maximization in Spillover Experiments

Kirill Borusyak, Peter Hull and Evan Munro

21795: Creative Destruction through Innovation Bursts

Giuseppe Berlingieri, Maarten De Ridder, Danial Lashkari and Davide Rigo

21794: Coherent shocks: External identification and internal validation with an application to geopolitical risk

Schüler, Yves, Sarah Arndt, Yevheniia Bondarenko, Vivien Lewis and Matthias Rottner

21793: Identification and Estimation of Demand Models with Endogenous Product Entry and Exit

Victor Aguirregabiria, Alessandro Iaria and Senay Sokullu

21792: Salt Wars

Desiree Desierto, Patrick Fitzsimmons and Mark Koyama

21791: The Equilibrium Impact of Credit Frictions: Evidence from Default Risk Using Firm-Level Data

Tim Besley, Peter John Lambert, Isabelle Roland and John van Reenen

21790: Majority Lost: Global Evidence and Field Experiments on Electoral Miscoordination

Francesco Capozza, Ruben Durante and Siddharth Eapen George

21789: Platform Power in News Aggregation

Andrey Simonov, Daniil Mikhailov, Ruben Enikolopov and Ruben Durante