Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets

Alexander Copestake, Cage Englander, Martínez Pería, Maria Soledad and Villegas-Bauer, Germán

No 22156, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We examine whether financial markets expect stablecoins to play an important role in payments. After the decisive congressional vote on the GENIUS Act, the market value of payment incumbents fell by 1.3 percent ($21.5 billion) relative to other financial firms, consistent with stablecoins increasing competition in payments. The decline was larger for firms focused on cross-border payments, and smaller for those protected by network effects or offering crypto services. Accounting for anticipation using prediction markets, we estimate that the Act re- duced the value of incumbent payment firms by 13–27 percent ($220–470 billion), exceeding the impact of recent pro-competitive regulatory shocks.

Keywords: Cryptocurrencies; Stablecoins; Payments; Stock returns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E42 G12 G23 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-11
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