CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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19268: Nonlinear Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies? Evidence from U.S. Data

Andres Blanco, Corina Boar, Callum Jones and Virgiliu Midrigan

19267: “Dormant securitiesâ€: Imperial guarantees for colonial loans, 1842-1934

Rui Esteves and Ali Coskun Tuncer

19266: Returns to Data: Evidence from Web Tracking

Hannes Ullrich, Jonas Hannane, Christian Peukert, Luis Aguiar and Tomaso Duso

19265: Explaining the Great Moderation Exchange Rate Volatility Puzzle

Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang

19264: Family Planning, Now and Later: Infertility Fears and Contraceptive Take-Up

Natalie Bau, David J. Henning, Corinne Low and Bryce Millett Steinberg

19263: Sufficient Statistics for Measuring Forward-Looking Welfare

David Baqaee, Ariel Burstein and Yasutaka Koike-Mori

19262: Haggle or Hammer? Dual-Mechanism Housing Search

Aaron Barkley, David Genesove and James Hansen

19261: The Wage of Temporary Agency Workers

Antonin Bergeaud, Pierre Cahuc, Malgouyres, Clément, Sara Signorelli and Thomas Zuber

19260: Exporting Ideas: Knowledge Flows from Expanding Trade in Goods

Antonin Bergeaud, Philippe Aghion, Gigout-Magiorani, Timothée, Matthieu Lequien and Marc Melitz

19259: Production function estimation using subjective expectations data

Agnes Norris Keiller, Aureo de Paula and John van Reenen

19258: Drip Pricing When Consumers Have Limited Foresight: Evidence from Driving School Fees

Katja Seim and Maria Ana Vitorino

19257: Accounting for the Evolution of China’s Production and Trade Patterns

Hanwei Huang, Jiandong Ju and Vivian Yue

19256: Governments' Home Bias and Efficiency Losses: Evidence from National and Subnational Governments

García-Santana, Manuel and Marta Santamaria

19255: Labor Market Matching, Wages, and Amenities

Thibaut Lamadon, Jeremy Lise, Costas Meghir and Jean-Marc Robin

19254: Optimal risk for pension funds: the sustainability of the UK Universities pension scheme

David Miles and James Sefton

19253: Missing assets: Exploring the source of data gaps in global cross-border holdings of portfolio equity

Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti

19252: Public Investment Quality and its Implications for Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability

Amat Adarov and Ugo Panizza

19251: International Investment Income: Patterns, Drivers, and Heterogeneous Sensitivities

Giovanni Donato and Tille, Cédric

19250: Intermediary Balance Sheet Constraints, Bond Mutual Funds’ Strategies, and Bond Returns

Mariassunta Giannetti, Jotikasthira Chotibhak, Andreas Rapp and Martin Waibel

19249: Servicing Development: Productive Upgrading of Labor-Absorbing Services in Developing Economies

Dani Rodrik and Rohan Sandhu

19248: A surprising hot-cold reciprocation gap

Riccardo Ghidoni, Sigrid Suetens and Jierui Yang

19247: Persuasion of Loss-Averse Receivers Through Early Offers

Heiko Karle, Heiner Schumacher and Rune Volund

19246: Sovereign haircuts: 200 years of creditor losses

Clemens Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

19245: Fintech Entry, Lending Market Competition, and Welfare

Xavier Vives and Zhiqiang Ye

19244: Generative artificial intelligence and cyber security in central banking

Inaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr, Leonardo Gambacorta, Sukhvir Notra, Tommaso Oliviero and David Whyte

19243: The Collateral Spread Puzzle: Why Do Repo Rates Often Exceed Unsecured Rates?

Kjell Nyborg

19242: ECB communication and its impact on financial markets

Klodiana Istrefi, Florens Odendahl and Giulia Sestieri

19241: Bargaining and Dynamic Competition

Shanglyu Deng, Dun Jia, Mario Leccese and Andrew Sweeting

19240: Pandemic Layoffs and the Role of Stay-At-Home Orders

Marianna Kudlyak and Erin Wolcott

19239: Return Predictability, Expectations, and Investment: Experimental Evidence

Marianne Andries, Milo Bianchi, Karen Huynh and Sebastien Pouget

19238: Perceived Ability and School Choices: Experimental Evidence and Scale-up Effects

Matteo Bobba

19237: The Evolution of Theories of Harm in EU Merger Control

Tomaso Duso, Lea Bernhardt and Joanna Piechucka

19236: Settlers and Seekers: Immigrant Proximity and Voter Polarisation

Carlotta Berticeroni, Lavinia Piemontese, Giovanni Prarolo and Antonio Schiavone

19235: Designing Scientific Grants

Christoph Carnehl, Marco Ottaviani and Justus Preusser

19234: Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?

Laura Alfaro, Maggie Chen and Davin Chor

19233: Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth

Giulio Fella, Martin Holm and Thomas M. Pugh

19232: The Value and Proï¬ ts of Firms

Jan Eeckhout

19231: Female Employment and Structural Transformation

Moritz Kuhn, Iourii Manovskii and Xincheng Qiu

19230: Property Taxes and Housing Allocation Under Financial Constraints

Joshua Coven, Sebastian Golder, Arpit Gupta and Abdoulaye Ndiaye

19229: Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment

Gregory Casey, Stephie Fried and Matthew Gibson

19228: Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening: The Money Channel

Michael Kumhof and Mauricio Salgado-Moreno

19227: When Is the Use of Gaussian-inverse Wishart-Haar Priors Appropriate?

Atsushi Inoue and Lutz Kilian

19226: Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update

Raphael Auer, Mathieu Pedemonte and Raphael Schoenle

19225: Empowerment or Financialization? The Gains from Financial Inclusion

Timothy Besley, Konrad Burchardi, Maitreesh Ghatak and Linchuan Xu

19224: National Wage Setting

Jonathon Hazell, Christina Patterson, Heather Sarsons and Bledi Taska

19223: The Small-Open Economy in a Generalized Gravity Model

Svetlana Demidova, Konstantin Kucheryavyy, Takumi Naito and Andres Rodriguez-Clare

19222: Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock

Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Mauricio Ulate and Jose P. Vasquez

19221: Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy

Tom Schmitz, Italo Colantone and Gianmarco Ottaviano

19220: Markets under Siege: How Political Beliefs Move Financial Markets

Saumitra Jha, Peter Koudijs and Marcos Salgado

19219: Image(s)

Hans-Joachim Voth and David Yanagizawa-Drott

19218: Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs

Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo

19217: Cognitive Abilities and the Demand for Bad Policy

Salvatore Nunnari, Eugenio Proto and Aldo Rustichini

19216: Rent Guarantee Insurance

Boaz Abramson and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

19215: Sanctions, Sales, and Stigma: A Tale on the Performance of International Brands in Russia

Alexandra Avdeenko, Maximilian Kaiser, Krisztina Kis-Katos and Leonie Reher

19214: Strategic complementarity in games

Orestis Vravosinos and Xavier Vives

19213: Using Prediction Models to Design Tax Enforcement: Incentives vs Targeting

Matteo Paradisi and Elia Sartori

19212: Slowdown in Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Declining Skill Premia

Federico Mandelman, Yang Yu, Francesco Zanetti and Andrei Zlate

19211: Women Adapting to Climate Change: Evidence from an RCT in Coastal Bangladesh

Marc Gillaizeau, Jakob Gaertner, Alexandra Avdeenko, Abdullah Al Harun and Anastasia Aladysheva

19210: Investment Treaties and the Threat to Biodiversity

Henrik Horn, Axel Lavenius and Mark Sanctuary

19209: Labour mobility costs across sectors and regions in a cross-section: How old is the captain?

Marcio Cruz, Emmanuel Milet, Marcelo Olarreaga and Jean-Marc Solleder

19208: Codification, Technology Absorption, and the Globalization of the Industrial Revolution

Juhász, Réka, Shogo Sakabe and David Weinstein

19207: Superstars or Supervillains? Large Firms in the South Korean Growth Miracle

Jaedo Choi, Andrei Levchenko, Dimitrije Ruzic and Younghun Shim

19206: Innovation Spillovers across U.S. Tech Clusters

Xavier Giroud, Ernest Liu and Holger Mueller

19205: Higher-Order Beliefs and Risky Asset Holdings

Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Xiao Yin

19204: Strategic Stake Acquisitions in Rival Firms: Common vs. Cross-Ownership

Vincenzo Denicolo and Fausto Panunzi

19203: The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature

Adrien Bilal and Känzig, Diego

19202: Is a uniform price on Carbon desirable? A public finance perspective

Felix Bierbrauer

19201: Fund fragility: The role of fund ownership base

Nolwenn Allaire, Johannes Breckenfelder and Marie Hoerova

19200: Nonlinear reimbursement rules for preventive and curative medical care

Helmuth Cremer and Jean-Marie Lozachmeur

19199: Investor tax breaks and financing for start-ups: evidence from China

Güçeri, Irem, Xipei Hou and Jing Xing

19198: Predicting Retirement and Social Security Claiming Decisions using Machine Learning

Alexander Kwon and Lilia Maliar

19197: In Their Shoes: Empathy through Information

Marianne Andries, Leonardo Bursztyn, Thomas Chaney, Milena Djourelova and Alex Imas

19196: Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion and the Timing and Pricing of Uncertainty

Marianne Andries, Thomas Eisenbach and Martin Schmalz

19195: Unobserved Contributions and Political Influence: Evidence from the Death of Top Donors

Marco Battaglini, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza, Mengwei Lin and Eleonora Patacchini

19194: Intrahousehold Welfare: Theory and Application to Japanese Data

Chiappori, Pierre-André, Costas Meghir and Yoko Okuyama

19193: Unearthing the Economic and Social Consequences of Earthquakes

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Maxim Chupilkin, Kóczán, Zsóka and Alexander Plekhanov

19192: Organized Labor Versus Robots? Evidence from Micro Data

Sebastian Findeisen, Wolfgang Dauth and Oliver Schlenker

19191: Why Has the Number of Billionaires Increased So Much?

Coen Teulings and Simon Toussaint

19190: High Voltage: Financing the Path to Zero Coal

Fabio Grieco, Camille Macaire, Alain Naef and Ulrich Volz

19189: Do firms walk the climate talk?

Michal Dzielinski, Florian Eugster, Sjöström, Emma and Alexander F. Wagner

19188: Stock Repurchases, ESG-Ratings, and Systemic Risk in Banking

Thomas Gehrig

19187: Irish Regional GDP since Independence

Alan de Bromhead and Sean Kenny

19186: Seizing central bank assets?

Tobias Krahnke, Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Arnaud Mehl and Isabel Vansteenkiste

19185: Financial literacy and financial education: An overview

Annamaria Lusardi and Tim Kaiser

19184: Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, Tomohide Mineyama and Dongho Song

19183: Voting on Public Goods: Citizens vs Shareholders

Döttling, Robin, Doron Levit, Nadya Malenko and Magdalena Rola-Janicka

19182: Identifying Agglomeration Shadows: Long-run Evidence from Ancient Ports

Richard Hornbeck, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch

19181: Intelligent financial system: how AI is transforming finance

Inaki Aldasoro, Leonardo Gambacorta, Anton Korinek, Vatsala Shreeti and Merlin Stein

19180: Emissions Trading with Clean-up Certificates: Deterring Mitigation or Increasing Ambition?

Kai Lessmann, Friedemann Gruner, Matthias Kalkuhl and Ottmar Edenhofer

19179: Sequencing Carbon Dioxide Removal into the EU ETS

Darius Sultani, Sebastian Osorio, Günther, Claudia, Michael Pahle, Katrin Sievert, Tobias S. Schmidt, Bjarne Steffen and Ottmar Edenhofer

19178: People’s Understanding of Inflation

Alberto Binetti, Francesco Nuzzi and Stefanie Stantcheva

19177: When Should the Government Own the Physical Assets Needed to Provide Public Goods?

Patrick Schmitz

19176: Risky Business: Venture Capital, Pivoting and Scaling

Norbäck, Pehr-Johan, Lars Persson and Tåg, Joacim

19175: The long and variable lags of monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated price indices

Boragan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel

19174: Do People Distinguish Income from Wealth Inequality? Evidence from the Netherlands

Thomas Douenne, Oda Sund and Joël van der Weele,

19173: Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Carlos Sanz

19172: Inflation is always and everywhere Not Conflict

Marcus Hagedorn

19171: Fragmented Monetary Unions

Luca Fornaro and Christoph Grosse Steffen

19170: The Optimal Inflation Target: Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Policy

Klaus Adam and Henning Weber

19169: Health Insurance Coverage and Personal Bankruptcy Reform

Paolo Barbieri, Laura Bottazzi and Giuseppe Di Giacomo