A Hundred Years of Business Cycles and the Phillips Curve

Lapo Bini, Lucrezia Reichlin and Giovanni Ricco

No 19552, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This study investigates the business cycle dynamics of the U.S. economy since 1900 through a multivariate framework that imposes minimal economic restrictions. A key finding is the presence of a significant negative correlation between inflation and economic slack, at business cycle frequencies. This relationship remains robust across over a century of data, with stable coefficients in subsample periods.

Keywords: Semi-structural models; Business cycle; Okun’s law (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10
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