A Hundred Years of Business Cycles and the Phillips Curve

Lapo Bini (), Lucrezia Reichlin and Giovanni Ricco ()

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Abstract: This study investigates the business cycle dynamics of the U.S. economy since 1900 through a multivariate framework that imposes minimal economic restrictions. A key finding is the presence of a significant negative correlation between inflation and economic slack, at business cycle frequencies. This relationship remains robust across over a century of data, with stable coefficients in subsample periods.

Keywords: Phillips Curve; Semi-structural models; Business cycle; Okun's law (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-11-21
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04814648v1
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Working Paper: A Hundred Years of Business Cycles and the Phillips Curve (2024)
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