CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX, UK.
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15348: Money, Banking, and Old-School Historical Economics

Eric Monnet and Francois Velde

15347: The History and Politics of Public Debt Accounting

Eric Monnet and Truong-Loï, Blaise

15346: Deep Learning Classification: Modeling Discrete Labor Choice

Serguei Maliar

15345: The Ancient Origins of the Wealth of Nations

Marc Klemp, Quamrul Ashraf and Oded Galor

15344: The Political Economics of Non-democracy

Konstantin Sonin and Georgy Egorov

15343: Institutional fragility, breakdown of trust: a model of social unrest in Chile

Velasco, Andrés and Robert Funk

15342: Regulatory Measures to Dismantle Pyramidal Business Groups: Evidence from the United States, Japan, Korea and Israel

Yishay Yafeh, Assaf Hamdani and Konstantin Kosenko

15341: A q Theory of Internal Capital Markets

Xavier Giroud, Min Dai, Wei Jiang and Neng Wang

15340: Imported or Home Grown? The 1992-3 EMS Crisis

Barry Eichengreen and Alain Naef

15339: Dominant Currencies: How firms choose currency invoicing and why it matters

Oleg Itskhoki, Mary Amiti and Jozef Konings

15338: Occupational Licensing and the Gender Wage Gap

Mario Pagliero, Maria Koumenta and Davud Rostam-Afschar

15337: The Global Factor Structure of Exchange Rates

Andrea Vedolin, Sofonias Alemu Korsaye and Fabio Trojani

15336: Legal Air Cover

Ugo Panizza, Patrick Bolton and Mitu Gulati

15335: Central bank digital currency in an open economy

Arnaud Mehl, Livio Stracca and Massimo Ferrari Minesso

15334: The Crisis and Job Guarantees in Urban India

Swati Dhingra and Stephen Machin

15333: Recruitment, Effort, and Retention Effects of Performance Contracts for Civil Servants: Experimental Evidence from Rwandan Prim

Clare Leaver, Owen Ozier, Pieter Serneels and Andrew Zeitlin

15332: Who Should Work from Home during a Pandemic? The Wage-Infection Trade-off

Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee, Sangmin Aum and Yongseok Shin

15331: De-globalization: Driven by Global Crises?

Assaf Razin

15330: Should we trust cross sectional multiplier estimates?

Fabio Canova

15329: The Optimal Allocation of Covid-19 Vaccines

Ana Babus, Sanmay Das and SangMok Lee

15328: Global Financial Cycle and Liquidity Management

Olivier Jeanne and Damiano Sandri

15327: Colonial legacies: Shaping African cities

J. Vernon Henderson, Cong Peng and Neeraj Baruah

15326: The Gravitational Constant?

Kevin O'Rourke, David Jacks and Alan Taylor

15325: The Indirect Fiscal Benefits of Low-Skilled Immigration

Dominik Sachs and Mark Colas

15324: Collective Information Acquisition

Kfir Eliaz and Ran Eilat

15323: SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Kalemli-Özcan, Á¹¢ebnem, Veronika Penciakova and Nick Sander

15322: Monetary Policy with a Central Bank Digital Currency: The Short and the Long Term

Hans Gersbach and Böser, Florian

15321: The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area

Federico Ravenna, Giovanni Pellegrino and Züllig, Gabriel

15320: The German Federal Constitutional Court Ruling and the European Central Bank's Strategy

Volker Wieland and Lars Feld

15319: Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications

Kirill Borusyak and Peter Hull

15318: Tapping into Talent: Coupling Education and Innovation Policies for Economic Growth

Ufuk Akcigit, Jeremy Pearce and Marta Prato

15317: The 'Great Lockdown': Inactive Workers and Mortality by Covid-19

Francesco Drago, Nicola Borri, Chiara Santantonio and Francesco Sobbrio

15316: Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks

Beata Javorcik, Banu Demir, Tomasz Michalski and Evren Örs,

15315: Expanding the Measurement of Culture with a Sample of Two Billion Humans

Klaus Desmet, Nick Obradovich, Martín, Ignacio, Ortuño-Ortin, Ignacio, Edmond Awad, Cebrían, Manuel, Ruben Cuevas Rumin, Iyad Rahwan and Angel Cuevas Rumin

15314: Firm-level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19

Stephen Hansen, Steven Davis and Cristhian Seminario-Amez

15313: The Economics of Currency Risk

Tarek Hassan and Tony Zhang

15312: A Counterfactual Economic Analysis of Covid-19 Using a Threshold Augmented Multi-Country Model

Alessandro Rebucci, Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mohammad Pesaran and Mehdi Raissi

15311: Appointed Learning for the Common Good: Optimal Committee Size and Efficient Rewards

Hans Gersbach, Akaki Mamageishvili and Oriol Tejada

15310: Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model

Kurt Mitman, Douglas Hanley, Mark Bognanni and Daniel Kolliner

15309: On Public Spending and Economic Unions

Jaume Ventura, Fernando Broner and Martín, Alberto

15308: Urban economics in a historical perspective: Recovering data with machine learning

Laurent Gobillon, Pierre-Philippe Combes and Yanos Zylberberg

15307: Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations

Raphael Schoenle, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Edward Knotek

15306: Prospect Theory and Currency Returns: Empirical Evidence

Mark Taylor, Qi Xu and Roman Kozhan

15305: Exchange Rate Prediction with Machine Learning and a Smart Carry Trade Portfolio

Mark Taylor, Ilias Filippou, David Rapach and Guofu Zhou

15304: Regional Inequalities and the West-East Divide in Turkey since 1880

Sevket Pamuk, Gunes Asik and Karakoç, Ulaş

15303: History and Urban Economics

W Hanlon and ,

15302: The Social Determinants of Choice Quality: Evidence from Health Insurance in the Netherlands

Johannes Spinnewijn, Benjamin R. Handel, Jonathan Kolstad and Thomas Minten

15301: Patent Screening, Innovation, and Welfare

Mark Schankerman and Florian Schuett

15300: Shipwrecked by Rents

Mark Koyama, Fernando Arteaga and Desiree Desierto

15299: Monetary Capacity

Nuno Palma, Roberto Bonfatti, Adam Brzezinski and Kıvanç Karaman

15298: The Great Lockdown: pandemic response policies and bank lending conditions

Carlo Altavilla, Francesca Barbiero, Miguel Boucinha and Lorenzo Burlon

15297: Globalization and Pandemics

Pol Antrà s, Stephen Redding and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

15296: Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets

Franziska Ohnsorge and Alain Kabundi

15295: Institutional Change and Institutional Persistence

Konstantin Sonin, Daron Acemoglu and Georgy Egorov

15294: The Impact of Financial Education of Managers on Medium and Large Enterprises - A Randomized Controlled Trial in Mozambique

Custódio, Cláudia, Diogo Mendes and Daniel Metzger

15293: All-Pay Matching Contests

Aner Sela

15292: Bombs, Broadcasts and Resistance: Allied Intervention and Domestic Opposition to the Nazi Regime during World War II

Hans-Joachim Voth, Maja Adena, Ruben Enikolopov and Maria Petrova

15291: Evading Corporate Responsibilities: Evidence from the Shipping Industry

Guillaume Vuillemey

15290: The Effects of COVID-19 on U.S. Small Businesses: Evidence from Owners, Managers, and Employees

Ströbel, Johannes, Georgij Alekseev, Safaa Amer, Manasa Gopal, Theresa Kuchler, Jw Schneider and Nils Wernerfelt

15289: Monetary Policy Surprises and Exchange Rate Behavior

Gürkaynak, Refet, Hakan Kara, Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin and Sang Seok Lee

15288: Financing Infrastructure in the Shadow of Expropriation

Viral Acharya, Cecilia Parlatore and Suresh Sundaresan

15287: The Great Depression as a Saving Glut

Eric Monnet and Victor Degorce

15286: Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle

Eric Monnet and Damien Puy

15285: Choice in Insurance Markets: A Pigouvian Approach to Social Insurance Design

Camille Landais, Nathan Hendren and Johannes Spinnewijn

15284: Social Mobility and Social Regimes: Intergenerational Mobility in Hungary, 1949-2017

Gregory Clark, Pawel Bukowski, Gáspár, Attila and Pető, Rita

15283: Optimal allocations to heterogeneous agents with an application to stimulus checks

Sørensen, Bent E, Vegard Nygaard and Fan Wang

15282: Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate World

Dmitriy Sergeyev and Neil Mehrotra

15281: Key Sectors in Endogeneous Growth

Yves Zenou and Jingong Huang

15280: Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of UK's Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity

Dominic Rohner and Alessandro Saia

15279: Pricing above value: selling to an adverse selection market

Jan Boone

15278: Forward looking loan provisions: Credit supply and risk-taking

Peydró, José-Luis, Gaizka Ormazabal, Bernardo Morais, Monica Roa and Miguel Sarmiento

15277: Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers

Peydró, José-Luis, Jiménez, Gabriel, Kenan Huremović, Enrique Moral-Benito and Fernando Vega-Redondo

15276: Credit demand vs. supply channels: Experimental- and administrative-based evidence

Peydró, José-Luis, Enrico Sette and Valentina Michelangeli

15275: Macroprudential Policy, Mortgage Cycles and Distributional Effects: Evidence from the UK

Peydró, José-Luis, Jagdish Tripathy, Francesc Rodríguez Tous and Arzu Uluc

15274: Countercyclical Liquidity Policy and Credit Cycles: Evidence from Macroprudential and Monetary Policy in Brazil

Peydró, José-Luis, Rodrigo Gonzalez, João Barroso and Bernardus Van Doornik

15273: Global Liquidity and Impairment of Local Monetary Policy

Peydró, José-Luis, Salih Fendoglu and Eda Gulsen

15272: Reassessing the Resource Curse using Causal Machine Learning

Roland Hodler, Michael Lechner and Paul Raschky

15271: Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia

Paul Pelzl and Steven Poelhekke

15270: Abstentions and Social Networks in Congress

Marco Battaglini, Valerio Leone Sciabolazza and Eleonora Patacchini

15269: Risk-Sharing and the Creation of Systemic Risk

Viral Acharya, Aaditya M. Iyer and Rangarajan K Sundaram

15268: Trade and Geography

Stephen Redding

15267: The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov and Luca Ricci

15266: Precaution, Information and Time-Inconsistency: On The Value of the Precautionary Principle

David Martimort and Louise Guillouet

15265: Cognitive Ability and Employee Mobility: Evidence from Swedish Microdata

Tobias Kretschmer, Pooyan Khashabi, Ali Mohammadi and Joseph Raffiee

15264: Anger and Strategic Behavior: A Level-k Analysis

Eugenio Proto and Alessandro Castagnetti

15263: Flexible Work Arrangements in Low Wage Jobs: Evidence from Job Vacancy Data

Abigail Adams-Prassl, Maria Balgova and Matthias Qian

15262: Data vs collateral

Leonardo Gambacorta, Yiping Huang, Zhenhua Li, Han Qiu and Shu Chen

15261: The persistent consequences of adverse shocks: how the 1970s shaped UK regional inequality

Anthony Venables and Patricia Rice

15260: Media Capture by Banks

Ruben Durante, Andrea Fabiani, Luc Laeven and Jose-Luis Peydro

15259: Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US

Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, Neil Lee and Cornelius Lipp

15258: The Fed Takes on Corporate Credit Risk: An Analysis of the Efficacy of the SMCCF

Egon Zakrajšek, Simon Gilchrist, Bin Wei and Vivian Yue

15257: Gender Diversity Goals, Supply Constraints, and the Market for Seasoned Female Directors: The U.S. Evidence

Sudipto Dasgupta, Patricia Boyallian and Swarnodeep Homroy

15256: The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S

Benjamin Moll, Greg Kaplan and Giovanni Violante

15255: Information Spillovers in Experience Goods Competition

Catherine Thomas, Chen, Zhuoqiong (Charlie) and Christopher T. Stanton

15254: The Persistence of Socio-Emotional Skills Life Cycle and Intergenerational Evidence

Aureo de Paula, Orazio Attanasio and Alessandro Toppeta

15253: Nonlinear Pricing in Oligopoly: How Brand Preferences Shape Market Outcomes

Renato Gomes, Lucas Maestri and Jean-Marie Lozachmeur

15252: Does Education Matter? Tests from Extensions of Compulsory Schooling in England and Wales 1919-22, 1947, and 1972

Gregory Clark and Neil Cummins

15251: Participation Constraints in Discontinuous Adverse Selection Models

David Martimort and Lars Stole

15250: Affinity, Trust, and Information

Alexey Makarin and Luigi Guiso

15249: The Social Value of Debt in the Market for Corporate Control

Mike Burkart, Samuel Lee and Henrik Petri