The Costs of Macroprudential Policy

Moritz Schularick, Richter, Björn and Ilhyock Shim

No 13124, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Central banks increasingly rely on macroprudential measures to manage the financial cycle. However, the effects of such policies on the core objectives of monetary policy to stabilise output and inflation are largely unknown. In this paper we quantify the effects of changes in maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios on output and inflation. We rely on a narrative identification approach based on detailed reading of policy-makers’ objectives when implementing the measures. We find that over a four year horizon, a 10 percentage point decrease in the maximum LTV ratio leads to a 1.1% reduction in output. As a rule of thumb, the impact of a 10 percentage point LTV tightening can be viewed as roughly comparable to that of a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate. However, the effects are imprecisely estimated and the effect is only present in emerging market economies. We also find that tightening LTV limits has larger economic effects than loosening them. At the same time, we show that changes in maximum LTV ratios have substantial effects on credit and house price growth. Using inverse propensity weights to rerandomise LTV actions, we show that these effects are likely causal.

Keywords: Macroprudential policy; Loan-to-value ratios; Local projections; Narrative approach (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E58 G28 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The costs of macroprudential policy (2019)
Chapter: The Costs of Macroprudential Policy (2018)
Working Paper: The Costs of Macroprudential Policy (2018)
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