CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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21588: Banks’ Dynamic Interest Rate Risk Hedging

Michele Leonardo Bianchi, Dario Ruzzi and Anatoli Segura

21587: The Funding Structure of Direct Lenders

Elisavet Mistopoulou and Sascha Steffen

21586: GDP at Transition Risk

Dirk Schoenmaker and Willem Schramade

21585: Microdata for Research in Macroeconomics and Finance

Nicola Limodio

21584: The Informational Role of Online Recommendations: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Guy Aridor, Gonçalves, Duarte, Daniel Kluver, Ruoyan Kong and Joseph Konstan

21583: The Future in Today’s Prices: Evidence from a Survey of U.S. Firms

Philippe Andrade, Alexander Dietrich, John Leer, Raphael Schoenle, Zakrajšek, Egon and Jenny Tang

21582: Trends in Labor Force Participation and Unemployment, 1976-2024

Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak

21581: Distraction and Stock Return Synchronicity: Evidence from the Field

Michael Ehrmann and David-Jan Jansen

21580: Social Anxiety and Evaluative Interviews

Samantha Horn, Peter Schwardmann and Egon Tripodi

21579: Startups in Africa

Emanuele Colonnelli, Marcio Cruz, Pereira-López, Mariana, Tommaso Porzio and Chun Zhao

21578: Optimal Subsidies for Capital Replacement and the Green Transition

Fabio Bertolotti, Andrea Lanteri and Hyeonsik Yoon

21577: The Generative AI Learning Penalty: Evidence from Chinese Secondary Education

Strömberg, David, Victor Lei and Yanhui Wu

21576: Green AI in Industry Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Water Treatment Sector

Mathias Abitbol, Philippe Aghion, Antonin, Céline, Lint Barrage and Benjamin Lengereau

21575: Fool's Gold? How the US Dollar Lost its Shine

Kai Arvai, Nuno Coimbra and Marco Pinchetti

21574: What Happens in Paris, Does Not Stay in Paris: Trade Fairs and Search and Matching Frictions

Békés, Gábor, Matyas Molnar and Claudia Steinwender

21573: The Income Channel to Labor-Market Polarization

Diego Comin, Ana Danieli and Martí Mestieri

21572: The Hidden Cost of Stock Market Concentration: When Funds Hit Regulatory Limits

Pástor, Luboš, Taisiya Sikorskaya and Jinrui Wang

21571: Measuring the AI Economy

Anton Korinek and Patrick McKelvey

21570: Central Bank Independence and Risk-Taking at the Zero Lower Bound

Bernhard Bartels, Barry Eichengreen, Julian Schumacher and Beatrice Weder di Mauro

21569: Off the Labor Supply Curve: The Zero Employer Size Wage Effect Within Large Firms

Andre Diegmann, Müller, Steffen and Benjamin Schoefer

21568: Do Female Leaders Reduce Corruption? New Evidence from Brazil

Julieta Peveri and Clemence Tricaud

21567: Climate Change in the Classroom

Stefano Carattini, Pamela Giustinelli and Marcella Veronesi

21566: Learning From False Stories

Robin Musolff, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann

21565: The Dark Side of Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: A SAGE Study of Asian High-Income Countries

Fernanda Ortega and Dennis Snower

21564: Coalition-Based Digital Governance in the Era of AI

Dennis Snower and Paul Twomey

21563: Do Voters Punish Inflation or Pay Cuts? Inflation and Real Wages in U.S. Elections

Riaño, Juan Felipe and Francesco Trebbi

21562: The Republic of Letters and the Rise of the West

Andrea Melillo, Luigi Pascali, Mounu Prem and Francesca Asja Trento

21561: Mapping Economic Opportunities in Global Clean Energy Supply Chains

Yang Li, Ketan Ahuja, Karan Daryanani, Ricardo Hausmann and Yıldırım, Muhammed A.

21560: Falling Dominoes? The Impact of the US Exit from Free Trade on the Sustainability of Trade Cooperation

Barthélémy Bonadio, Andrei Levchenko and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

21559: Do Markets Deliver? Competition and Choice in European Healthcare Markets

Carol Propper

21558: Intergenerational Transmission of Victimization

Sonia Bhalotra, Meltem Daysal, Jensen, Mathias Fjællegaard, Jørgensen, Thomas H. and Montpetit, Sébastien

21557: Intergenerational Mobility by Sexuality

Fane Groes, Jensen, Mathias Fjællegaard and Thomsen, Morten Kjær

21556: States as Financiers: International Lending in War and Peace

Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch

21555: Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

Teresa Fort, Nathan Goldschlag, Jack Liang, Peter Schott and Nikolas Zolas

21554: Macro Theory with Measured Expectations

Ralph Luetticke, Christopher Roth, Mirko Wiederholt and Johannes Wohlfart

21553: Averting Mortality, Enabling Mobility: Health and Economic Impacts of HIV Treatment at Scale

Huan Wang, Victoria Baranov, Sarah Dickerson and Jeremy Barofsky

21552: Speed, Accuracy, and Complexity

Gonçalves, Duarte

21551: You Only Weave Twice. Espionage And Industrialization in 18th Century France

Bruno Caprettini

21550: The Rise of the Knowledge Economy

Matteo Cervellati, Sara Lazzaroni, Gianni Marciante and Paolo Masella

21549: Explaining Divergence in Ocean Freight Rates and Passenger Fares, 1863-1913

Tim Hatton

21548: Fighting for Growth: Labor Scarcity and Technological Progress During the British Industrial Revolution

Hans-Joachim Voth, Bruno Caprettini and Alex Trew

21547: Trading Places: How Trade Policy Is Reshaping Multinational Firms' Location

Alejandro Graziano, Monika Sztajerowska and Christian Volpe Martincus

21546: The Fragility of the Global Trading System

Stephan Maurer, Luke Milsom and Ferdinand Rauch

21545: Determinants of Spreads on European Supranational Debt: Towards a Genuine European Safe Asset?

Kalin Anev Janse, Roel Beetsma and Andy Li

21544: Goodbye, Montesquieu: Executive Spillovers in Judicial Elections

Nicola Fontana, Tommaso Nannicini and James Snyder

21543: Growing Together and Apart: Scale Economies and Labor Specialization in Global Value Chains

Björn Arnarson, Magnus Tolum Buus, Andreas Moxnes, Jakob Munch and Chong Xiang

21542: Endogenous Fiscal Dominance: Expectations, Political Shocks and Sovereign Risk

Paul De Grauwe and Pasquale Foresti

21541: The Labor Market Effects of Regulating Platform Work: Evidence from Chile

Omar Bamieh, Juan Dolado, Jáñez, à Lvaro and Felix Wellschmied

21540: The Importance of Unlikely Events

Maya Eden, Larry Samuelson and Jakub Steiner

21539: Intermediate Input Substitutability

Alessandra Peter and Cian Ruane

21538: Mind the Stance Gap: State-Dependent Filtering in the Federal Reserve Communications

Alev Atak and Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin

21537: Supply Chain Uncertainty, Energy Prices and Inflation

Alfonso Merendino and Tommaso Monacelli

21536: The Anatomy of Emerging-Market Business Cycles: Global Financial Shocks and Supply-Like Transmission

Luca Gambetti, Ivan Petrella, Alessandro Pollastri and Emiliano Santoro

21535: Slice to Protect

Peter Eppinger, Bohdan Kukharskyy, Alireza Naghavi and Gianmarco Ottaviano

21534: Is Cheaper Democracy Better? The Odd-Electorate Paradox

Hans Gersbach, Egor Kravchenko and Cesar Martinelli

21533: Incomplete Markets and International Risk-Sharing

Ester Faia and Ekaterina Shabalina

21532: From People’s War to People’s Rule: Rebel Governance and the Foundations of Inclusive Democracy

Bhishma Bhusal, Michael Callen, Rohini Pande, Soledad Prillaman, Deepak Singhania and Apurva Subedi

21531: Can Digital Aid Deliver During Humanitarian Crises?

Michael Callen, Fajardo-Steinhäuser, Miguel, Michael Findley and Tarek Ghani

21530: Two-Sided Market Power in Firm-to-Firm Trade

Vanessa Alviarez, Michele Fioretti, Ken Kikkawa and Monica Morlacco

21529: Mergers, Innovation Efficiencies, and the Investment Channel

Matias Pietola, Emanuele Tarantino and Hans Zenger

21528: Patterns and Determinants of Global Cryptocurrency Flows

Christian Friedrich and Laura Zhao

21527: Industrial Clusters in the Long Run: Evidence from Million-Rouble Plants in China

Stephan Heblich, Marlon Seror, Hao Xu and Yanos Zylberberg

21526: Who Trades Index Rebalancings? Evidence on Benchmarking and Inelastic Demand

Mariana Escobar, Lorenzo Pandolfi, Alvaro Pedraza and Tomas Williams

21525: The Missing Value of Data

Ankit Bhutani, Ordoñez, Guillermo and Laura Veldkamp

21524: Trade Restrictions, Trade Policy Uncertainty and FDI Flows

Hites Ahir, Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Francesco Frangiamore, Jonathan Ostry and Francesco Scianna

21523: Tax News and Intertemporal Substitution

Martin Holm, Rustam Jamilov, Marek Jasinski and Plamen Nenov

21522: The Price of Protection: Tariff Incidence and Import Collapse under the Infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff

Kris Mitchener and Mathieu Pedemonte

21521: Management of Health Care Facilities and Patient Attendance During Major Disruptions: Evidence from Kenya

Kathryn Andrews, Fabiano Dal-Ri, Roberta Gatti, Renata Lemos, Mario Macis and Lydia Nakhone

21520: Beyond the Core: Stock-Market Development and Performance in the Middle East, 1872–1914

Ali Coskun Tuncer

21519: The Heterogeneous Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy

Jorge Abad, Saki Bigio, Salomon Garcia-Villegas, Joël Marbet and Nuño, Galo

21518: How Should Central Banks Respond to Commodity Price Shocks? Optimal Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks for Commodity-Expos

Thomas Drechsel, Silvana Tenreyro, Michael McLeay and Enrico Duilio Turri

21517: When Do Markets Work? Multiplex Networks and Efficiency

Chengqing Li, Yves Zenou and Junjie Zhou

21516: Indirect Estimators of Intergenerational Mobility

Andrea Del Pizzo, Martin Nybom and Jan Stuhler

21515: Distribution Costs

Alessandra Peter and Cian Ruane

21514: Believing and Practicing: How Religion Shapes Human Capital and Growth

Sebastiano Della Lena, Yasuhiro Sato and Yves Zenou

21513: The Design and Business Models of Financial Ratings

Pierre Chaigneau and Nicolas Sahuguet

21512: Digital Ownership: The Tokenization of Real-World Assets

Gilles Chemla and Katrin Tinn

21511: Banking under Conflict: Managers and Organizational Design

Nicola Limodio, Luca Picariello and Tom Schwantje

21510: Resource Windfalls, Public Expenditure and Local Economies

Antonella Bancalari and Juan Pablo Rud

21509: Defense Spending, Cost of Living, and the Optimal Exchange Rate Regime during Wartime in Ukraine

Oliver de Groot and Yevhenii Skok

21508: Empowering Adolescent Girls: Does it take a Village?

Alison Andrew, Sonya Krutikova, Gabriela Smarrelli and Hemlata Verma

21507: Strategic Investment in Supply Chain Resilience under Geopolitical Interference: Theory and Policy Implications

Thomas Gehrig and Rune Stenbacka

21506: Skills, Not Scale: GenAI and Technology Adoption

Nuriye Melisa Bilgin and Gianmarco Ottaviano

21505: AI Sycophancy and Decisions

John Conlon and Peter Schwardmann

21504: Unpacking Public Opposition to Meat Taxes: A Survey-Experiment in California

Thomas Douenne, Natalie Lee and Nicolas Treich

21503: Accounting for the Reversal of Fortune: Spain and Britain, 1501-1800

Leandro Prados de la Escosura

21502: The Impact and Incidence of Supplemental Health Insurance: Evidence from Sweden

Palme, Mårten, David Seim, Johannes Spinnewijn and Wikström, Jens

21501: Bond Yield Responses to Macro News: The Role of Macro Forecast Disagreement and Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Hördahl, Peter, Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin and Fan Dora Xia

21500: Environmental Regulation, Market Power, and Socially Responsible Firms

Claire Borsenberger, Helmuth Cremer, Denis Joram, Jean-Marie Lozachmeur and Estelle Malavolti

21499: Family-Friendly Workplace Policies

Julian Costas-Fernandez, Sebastian Findeisen, Anna Raute and Schönberg, Uta

21498: Parenthood and Productivity

Diogo Britto, Caio de Holanda, Bruno Ferman, Alexandre Fonseca, Breno Sampaio and Lucas Warwar

21497: Stable Taxation in Frictional Labor Markets

Mehrab Kiarsi and Pontus Rendahl

21496: Liberation Technology? The Impact of the Sewing Machine on Women

Philipp Ager and Davide Coluccia

21495: Climate and Prehistoric Migration

Peter Huybers, Marco Tabellini, Charles A. Taylor and Francesco Toti

21494: The Word Is Not Enough: Testing the Effects of Information Treatments on Perceived Corruption in Ukraine

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Ilona Sologoub and Yuriy Fedyk

21493: Is There a Way Back? On the Political Economy of Liberalizing Trade

Luca Bettarelli, Julia Estefania Flores, Davide Furceri, Jonathan Ostry and Loredana Pisano

21492: Semiparametric Estimation of Heterogeneous Firm-level Producton Functions

Jordi Jaumandreu

21491: Election Campaign with Statements

Kfir Eliaz and Ariel Rubinstein

21490: Ancestral Inequality and Preferences for Redistribution

Graziella Bertocchi, Arcangelo Dimico and Gian Luca Tedeschi

21489: Lobbying in Disguise

Stefano Carattini, Ulrich Matter and Matthias Roesti