CEPR Discussion Papers

From Centre for Economic Policy Research
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21275: Menu Pricing of Large Language Models

Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti and Alex Smolin

21274: The Elasticity of Corporate Taxable Income Across Countries

Claudio Agostini, Zareh Asatryan, Laurent Bach, Govindadeva Bernier, Marinho Berthana, Katarzyna Bilicka, Anne Brockmeyer, Jaroslav Bukovina, Guillermo Falcone, Pablo Garriga, Yuxuan He, Janský, Petr, Evangelos Koumanakos, Tomas Lichard, Jan Palguta, Elena Patel, Pereira dos Santos, João, Louis Perrault, Thomas Schwab, Nathan Seegert, Oliver Skultety, Kristina Strohmaier, Maximilian Todtenhaupt, Guillermo Vuletin and Branislav Zudel

21273: On the Origins of Modern East Asia: Knowledge and the Economic Transformation of Japan and China in the late 19th century

Debin Ma, Jared Rubin and Yin Weiwen

21272: AI Meets Fiscal Policy: Mapping Government Spending Actions Across 62 Countries

Shuvam Das, Davide Furceri, Adrian Peralta-Alva and Nikhil Patel

21271: Technology Adoption and Women’s Rights: Evidence from Switzerland

Bjorn Brey, Edoardo Cefala and García-Peñalosa, Cecilia

21270: Aggregate and Distributional Implications of a Military Buildup

Mathieu Boullot, Christophe Cahn, Edouard Challe and Julien Matheron

21269: Tariffs and Firm Expectations

Klaus Abberger, Bibaj, Arbërim, Hans Gersbach, Alexis Perakis, Alexander Rathke, Samad Sarferaz and Kieran James Walsh

21268: The Global Credit Cycle

Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias

21267: The Effects of the Legal Minimum Working Time on Workers, Firms and the Labor Market

Pauline Carry

21266: Religion and Conflict: Evidence from China, 1860–1911

Yujing Huang, Chicheng Ma and Felipe Valencia Caicedo

21265: An Opening for the Euro

Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl and Isabel Vansteenkiste

21264: Tariffs, Automation, and Business Dynamism

Stephane Auray, Michael B Devereux and Eyquem, Aurélien

21263: Predicting University Dropouts: Evidence on the Value of Student Expectations and Motivation

Thomas Frank Epper, Kristoffer Ibsen, Alexander K Koch and Julia Nafziger

21262: The Effects of AI Assistance on Self-Promotion

Alexander K Koch, Jenny Kragl, Sijuan Ming and Julia Nafziger

21261: The Costs of Counterparty Risk in Long-Term Contracts

Natalia Fabra and Gerard Llobet

21260: How Rules and Compliance Impact Organizational Outcomes: Evidence from Delegation in Environmental Regulation

James Fenske, Muhammad Haseeb and Namrata Kala

21259: Seeing Green: The Effects of Financial Exposures on Support for Climate Action

Michelle Hanlon, Saumitra Jha, Namrata Kala, Nemit Shroff and Chagai Weiss

21258: Sticking to Their Guns: Short-Horizon Exchange Rate Expectations

Lukas Kremens and Liliana Varela

21257: The Content Moderator's Dilemma: Removal of Toxic Content and Distortions to Online Discourse

Mahyar Habibi, Dirk Hovy and Carlo Schwarz

21256: Unobservable No More: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest under Flat IS and Phillips Curves

Gabriele Fiorentini, Alessandro Galesi, Peña, Rodrigo, Pérez Quirós, Gabriel and Enrique Sentana

21255: The Accuracy and Malleability of Parental Beliefs about Child Socio-Emotional Health

Audrey Bousselin, Isabelle Brocas, Giorgia Menta and Eugenio Proto

21254: Securities Losses and the Bank Collateral Channel of Monetary Transmission

Mariassunta Giannetti, Martina Jasova, Caterina Mendicino and Dominik Supera

21253: Industrial Policies, Global Imbalances and Technological Hegemony

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Andrea Ferrero, Luca Fornaro and Martin Wolf

21252: Institutional Shocks and Migration Adjustment: Evidence from the Syrian Crisis and Brexit’s Referendum and Implementation

Assaf Razin

21251: Determinants of Sovereign Bond Issuance in Emerging Markets

Ka Lok Wong, Mark Manger and Ugo Panizza

21250: Work from Home and Fertility

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Katelyn Cranney, Steven Davis, Mathias Dolls and Pablo Zarate

21249: Geography and Economic Development (revisited)

Pascaline Dupas

21248: Artificial Intelligence and Monetary Policy: A Framework and Perspective on Cyclical Transmission, Structural Transition, and

Simone Lenzu

21247: Quantitative Trade with Ships

Sonali Chowdhry, Inga Heiland and Hendrik Mahlkow

21246: The Politics of Carbon Pricing: Young vs. Old, Debtors vs. Creditors

Armon Rezai and Frederick van der Ploeg

21245: Parental Beliefs, Engagement, and Time Investments in Preschoolers

Margherita Fort, Maria Bigoni, Stefania Bortolotti, Roberto Caputo, Annalisa Guarini, Daniela Iorio, Chiara Monfardini, Alessandra Sansavini and Chiara Suttora

21244: Beyond Oil: The Origins of Commodity Price Fluctuations

Alvin Lumbanraja, Sarah Mouabbi, Evgenia Passari and Adrien Rousset Planat

21243: How Do Interest Rates Affect Consumption? Household Debt and the Role of Asset Prices

Angus Foulis, Jonathon Hazell, Atif Mian and Belinda Tracey

21242: Changing Culture and Norms in Developing Countries

Eliana La Ferrara and David Yanagizawa-Drott

21241: The Overdelivery Premium: When Monetary Policy Decisions Exceed Market Expectations

Michael Ehrmann and Paul Hubert

21240: Retail Price Parity as a Channel-Coordination Mechanism in Dual Distribution

Michele Bisceglia, Mark Israel, Salvatore Piccolo and Paolo Ramezzana

21239: Regional Favoritism: New Data, Larger Sample, Same Pattern

Düben, Christian, Roland Hodler and Paul Raschky

21238: Granular Sentiments

Rustam Jamilov, Alexandre Kohlhas, Oleksandr Talavera and Mao Zhang

21237: Too Much Finance Redux

Jean-Louis Arcand, Enrico Berkes and Ugo Panizza

21236: Forecasting Crashes with a Smile

Ian Martin and Ran Shi

21235: On the Moments of the Stochastic Discount Factor

Ian Martin and Ran Shi

21234: Making the Invisible Hand Visible: Managers and the Allocation of Workers to Jobs

Virginia Minni

21233: Why People Disagree About What Drives Stock Prices

Andy Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri

21232: Competition and Collusion with Strategic Inventories

Marium Ashfaq, Flavio Toxvaerd and Yi Wei

21231: Trade Liberalization and Third-Market Effects

Fabrice Defever and Emanuel Ornelas

21230: (How) Do Health Shocks Reallocate Research Direction?

Hongyu Zhou, Prashant Garg and Thiemo Fetzer

21229: Inequality, Informality, and Optimal Progressivity

Oscar Becerra, Luigi-Maria Briglia, John Leon-Diaz, Valencia, Óscar and Ralph Luetticke

21228: Science under Threat? A Natural Experiment in Economics

Dominic Rohner, Oliver Vanden Eynde and Philine Widmer

21227: Sex, Lies and Birth Statistics: The Mysterious Case of the Spanish Missing Women

Manuel Bagues and Carmen Villa

21226: Ownership Dynamics and Firm Policies with a Large Shareholder

Sebastian Gryglewicz, Simon Mayer and Erwan Morellec

21225: Investor Activism and the Green Transition

Sebastian Gryglewicz, Simon Mayer and Erwan Morellec

21224: The Effect of Retaining High-Skilled International Graduates: Evidence from the STEM OPT Extension

Seoyoung Kwon, Jongkwan Lee and Joan Monras

21223: On the Design of Effective Sanctions: The Case of Bans on Exports to Russia

Ricardo Hausmann, Ulrich Schetter and Yıldırım, Muhammed A.

21222: Towards a Sustainable Recovery for Lebanon’s Economy

Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza, Carmen Reinhart, Douglas Barrios, Clement Brenot, Jesus Enrique Daboin Pacheco, Clemens Graf von Luckner, Frank Muci and Lucila Venturi

21221: The Economics of Tariffs

Ralph Ossa and Stephen Redding

21220: A Cost-Benefit Approach to Optimizing Security Precaution Adoption

Noa Barnir, Neil Gandal, Tyler Moore and Vincent Scott

21219: The Impact of Ransomware Attacks on Security Portfolios: Firm-Level Panel Data

Abulfaz Hajizada, Dana Etgar Itzhaki, Noa Barnir, Tyler Moore and Neil Gandal

21218: Financial Shocks, Productivity, and Prices

Simone Lenzu, David Rivers, Joris Tielens and Shi Hu

21217: Micro and Macro Cost-Price Dynamics in Normal Times and during Inflation Surges

Luca Gagliardone, Mark Gertler, Simone Lenzu and Joris Tielens

21216: Unconditional Cash Transfers: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Randomized Evaluations in Low and Middle Income Countries

Tommaso Crosta, Dean Karlan, Finley Ong, Julius Ruschenpohler and Christopher Udry

21215: Persistence in a Changing World. Gold Backing and Monetary Policy Autonomy Under Bretton Woods

Eric Monnet

21214: Direct Gaussian Process Predictive Regressions with Mixed Frequency Data

Niko Hauzenberger, Massimiliano Marcellino, Michael Pfarrhofer and Anna Stelzer

21213: Severe Weather and Financial (In)stability

Claudia Foroni, Paolo Gelain, Marco Lorusso and Massimiliano Marcellino

21212: Misallocation with Lumpy Investment

Aleksei Oskolkov and Francesco Lippi

21211: Strategic Complementarities in a Dynamic Model of Technology Adoption: P2P Digital Payments

Fernando Alvarez, David Argente, Francesco Lippi, Esteban Mendez-Chacon and Diana Van Patten

21210: A Class of Singular Control Problems with Tipping Points

Décamps, Jean-Paul, Fabien Gensbittel, Thomas Mariotti and Villeneuve, Stéphane

21209: Digital Ecosystems and Data Regulation

Andrew Rhodes, Jidong Zhou and Junjie Zhou

21208: Not-so-Cleansing-Recessions

Igli Bajo, Frederik Bennhoff and Alessandro Ferrari

21207: Minimum Wages, Earnings, and Worker–Firm Sorting

Suphanit Piyapromdee, Tanisa Tawichsri and Nada Wasi

21206: Modern Communication Technologies, Protests, and Service Blocking

Maxim Ananyev, Maria Petrova, Dimitrios Xefteris and Galina Zudenkova

21205: Low Frequency Movements and SVAR Analyses

Fabio Canova and Luca Fosso

21204: Remittances, Trade Deficit, and Output Dynamics in Nepal

Bongers, Anelí, Fabio Canova, Kul Luintel and Torres, José Luis

21203: Intertemporal MPC and Shock Size

Tullio Jappelli, Ettore Savoia and Alessandro Sciacchetano

21202: Nonparametric Identification of Demand without Exogenous Product Characteristics

Kirill Borusyak, Jiafeng Chen, Peter Hull and Lihua Lei

21201: Managers and the Cultural Transmission of Gender Norms

Virginia Minni, Kieutrang Nguyen, Heather Sarsons and Carla Srebot

21200: New Technology and Entrepreneurship

Hans K. Hvide and Tom G. Meling

21199: Regulatory Reform and Opportunistic Insider Trading

Anantha Divakaruni, Hedda Rytter Tveiten and Hans K. Hvide

21198: Cross-Border Spillovers: How U.S. Monetary Conditions Affect M&As Around the World

Katharina Bergant, Prachi Mishra, Raghuram Rajan and Freddy Pinzon-Puerto

21197: Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty

Anastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev and Poilly, Céline

21196: Religion and the Wealth of Nations after 250 Years

Sascha O. Becker

21195: Rain-fed Cisterns Reduce Migration and Mortality in the Brazilian Semi-arid

Diogo Britto, Imbert, Clément, Breno Sampaio, Gabriel Ulyssea and Alexandre Fonseca

21194: Matching, Management and Employment Outcomes: A Field Experiment with Firm Internships

Girum Abebe, Marcel Fafchamps, Michael Koelle and Simon Quinn

21193: Guns and Butter: The Fiscal Consequences of Rearmament and War

Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch

21192: Geoeconomics and Conflict: A Review and Open Questions

Eoin McGuirk and Christoph Trebesch

21191: Internal Pay Equity and the Quantity-Quality Trade-Off in Hiring

Michael Amior and Shmuel San

21190: Transparency and the Visibility of Misconduct: Evidence from ESG Disclosure Mandates

Erdinc Akyildirim, Giray Gozgor, Thang Ho and Alexander F. Wagner

21189: Monetary Policy Under Okun's Hypothesis

Felipe Alves and Giovanni L. Violante

21188: Inflation vs Inclusion: Stabilization Policy in the Wake of the Pandemic

Felipe Alves and Giovanni L. Violante

21187: When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Businesses

Kurmann, André, Lalé, Étienne and Julien Martin

21186: Economic Growth when Knowledge is Concentrated

Andrea Guccione and Pau Roldan-Blanco

21185: The Role of Firms and Job Mobility in the Assimilation of Immigrants: Former Soviet Union Jews in Israel 1990–2019

Jaime Arellano-Bover and Shmuel San

21184: Industrial policies for multi-stage production: The battle for battery-powered vehicles

Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, Marc J Melitz and Chenying Yang

21183: Narratives as Separating Equilibria: On the Origins of the Ukraine War

Giacomo Corneo

21182: Impact Matters for Giving at Checkout

Susan Athey, Matias Cerosimo, Dean Karlan, Kristine Koutout and Henrike Steimer

21181: Estimating Impact with Surveys versus Digital Traces: Evidence from Randomized Cash Transfers in Togo

Emily Aiken, Suzanne Bellue, Joshua Blumenstock, Dean Karlan and Christopher Udry

21180: Give me a Pass: Flexible Credit for Entrepreneurs in Colombia

Lasse Brune, Xavier Gine and Dean Karlan

21179: Improving Smallholder Agriculture via Video-Based Group Extension

Tushi Baul, Dean Karlan, Kentaro Toyama and Kathryn Vasilaky

21178: Human Capital at Home: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in the Philippines

Noam Angrist, Sarah Kabay, Dean Karlan, Lincoln Lau and Kevin Wong

21177: Access to Digital Credit for Smallholder Farmers: Experimental Evidence from Ghana

Dean Karlan, Monica Lambon-Quayefio, Utsav Manjeer and Christopher Udry

21176: Does Q&A Boost Engagement? Health Messaging Experiments in the U.S. and Ghana

Erika Kirgios, Susan Athey, Angela Duckworth, Dean Karlan, Michael Luca, Katherine Milkman and Molly Offer-Westort