Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries

Jan C. van Ours

No 19055, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: The phenomenon of non-transitivity in outcomes, typically observed in non-effort games with predetermined probabilities and immediate clarity, extends to team-based, time-consuming games requiring effort that unfold over a long period of time. This study explores this aspect through an empirical analysis of professional football matches in the Netherlands involving three prominent teams: Feyenoord, Ajax, and PSV. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results reveal a non-transitive pattern over more than three decades, indicating that Feyenoord is more likely to triumph over PSV, PSV over Ajax, and Ajax over Feyenoord than the reverse scenarios.

JEL-codes: Z2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-05
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